MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 6/16/15
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As for today's lineups -- those can be found here. The information below is to help you understand why particular players are being picked, because we don't want you going into the things completely blind. We want to help you. Keep in mind, however, that things often change up until the games start, so make sure you're refreshing the optimal lineups as close to the start of games as possible.
Top Pitchers
High-Cost Pitcher
Garrett Richards – Our top pitcher today is Jake Arrieta, but I'm a little worried about using him -- the Indians are a top-10 team in wOBA versus right-handed pitching, and they have some scary lefty bats. That's why I prefer Richards, our second-best option on the night. The Angels get the Diamondbacks in Anaheim, forcing a negative park shift on that D-Backs lineup. And while Arizona is 12th in the league in wOBA versus right-handed pitching, this park shift should make them more of an average team. The other thing to note is that Ender Inciarte is hitting the DL with a hamstring injury, so the lineup should be even worse. Richards has a top-four K rate compared to the rest of the pitching field tonight, and as a heavy favorite, he's a good option on single-pitcher sites.
Alternative Options: Matt Harvey, Jake Arrieta
Cost-Effective Pitcher
Charlie Morton – Morton is a ground ball creating machine, sitting with a 69.0% ground-ball rate entering tonight's contest against the White Sox. The matchup for Morton and the Pirates is strong -- the White Sox, versus right-handed pitching, have the ninth-highest ground-ball rate in the bigs, and their wOBA sits at a below-average .300. In a pitcher's park like PNC, Morton should have a high floor as a result. The issue here is his upside. Through four starts, Morton has just an 11.7% K rate, striking out fewer than five batters per nine innings. He seems destined to be a good number-two pitcher in cash games on a site like DraftKings, but I'd probably look for a little more upside on a single-pitcher site like FanDuel. Trevor Bauer, perhaps?
Alternative Option: Trevor Bauer
High-Cost Hitters
Joc Pederson - You were likely disappointed in the Dodgers if you used them last night, but I expect things to turn around today. The mashing lefties in the lineup are in play today against Chi-Chi Gonzalez, who's been fortunate in his 21.2 innings pitched so far this year -- his ERA is a ridiculously low 0.42, but his FIP is 3.89 and his xFIP is 5.17. And that xFIP number is the worst among all pitchers on the mound tonight. Enter Pederson, who will have the platoon advantage in one of the better hitter's parks in Major League Baseball. Don't give up on the Dodgers after one bad outing.
Miguel Cabrera - Since June 6th (seven games played), Miggy has four games with six or more FanDuel points, and five double-digit performances over on DraftKings. He's been a beast. And tonight he faces Michael Lorenzen, who has a 6.08 FIP in 42.2 innings pitched this year, as well as the highest home run per fly ball rate (20%) among all pitchers tonight. Miggy will be expensive, but should be worth it.
Alternative Options: Adam Jones
Cost-Effective Hitters
Kole Calhoun - The Angels get Jeremy Hellickson tonight, who's surrendered a .412 wOBA to left-handed bats this year, and has historically been bad against the platoon in year's past. Calhoun, meanwhile, has a .336 wOBA against righties over his career, with an ISO that's roughly 50 points higher in the split than out of it. At a low cost, you could do a lot worse.
Mike Moustakas - The Royals playing in Milwaukee means a nice park shift in their hitter's favor. Add in the fact that they'll be facing an underperforming Matt Garza, and you have yourself a nice combination. Moose gets the platoon advantage against the Brewers' righty, which should be great for his potential tonight -- Garza's surrendered a .342 wOBA to lefties this year, and Moustakas has hit righties far better than lefties in 2015.
Alternative Option: Jung-Ho Kang
