MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Monday 6/15/15
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As for today's lineups -- those can be found here. The information below is to help you understand why particular players are being picked, because we don't want you going into the things completely blind. We want to help you. Keep in mind, however, that things often change up until the games start, so make sure you're refreshing the optimal lineups as close to the start of games as possible.
Dallas Keuchel – Though our algorithm likes other pitchers more than Keuchel tonight, I may be rolling him out more due to the weather concerns across the country. Both of the pitchers mentioned as alternative options are under the threat of storms, and if I'm playing cash games, I'd better be safe than sorry. And Keuchel's matchup isn't a bad one -- he's at home against the Rockies, who rank 24th in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. A key component to their poor hitting has been an insanely high 25.7% strikeout rate, which is something important for a guy like Keuchel, who's been great in terms of FIP, but very average in terms of K rate. The Astros are heavy favorites, too, making him an even better play on a site like FanDuel, which weighs the win pretty heavily.
Wei-Yin Chen – I'm not all that comfortable with the lower-cost pitchers tonight, but Chen's situation is a little intriguing. The Orioles host the Phillies in what appears to be a game with decent weather, and while Philadelphia has hit left-handers better than right-handers this year, they're still a below average team in the split. Chen's had a pretty good 20.7% K rate this year, which is better than average when compared to other pitchers on the mound tonight. With a reasonable over/under, he makes for a decent tournament play thanks to his terrible opponent.
Alternative Option: N/A
Mike Trout - I try not to recommend the best player in baseball very often, and even though Trout hasn't mashed southpaws like he probably should at the big league level, there's still so much intrigue when he faces a left-hander. Robbie Ray doesn't really have a significant sample size to judge so far this year, but his numbers have been pretty decent, to be fair. Trout, though, is our highest-projected player on the day, and could be worth the price tag during a night where there are tons of question marks with weather and pitchers.
Prince Fielder - Fielder's had a nice campaign, hitting to a .396 wOBA and .176 ISO this year. And against right-handed pitching, that wOBA is a silly-good .420. Versus lefties, Carlos Frias, who's pitching against the Rangers tonight, has given up a .396 wOBA, the worst of any pitcher on the mound tonight. Not only that, but the game will be played in Texas, which is a significant park shift from Frias' home in Los Angeles. Our algorithm doesn't like Fielder as much as I do, but I think Ranger lefties should be in play tonight, and that's especially true for Prince.
Alternative Options: Paul Goldschmidt
David Peralta - We'll see where Peralta bats tonight, but if it's in the 4 or 5 spot, then we're in business. Though there's a park shift in the wrong direction for Diamondback hitters tonight, we can't ignore that Jered Weaver has the third-worst FIP of any pitcher going tonight, and has been tremendously bad against lefties this year, giving up a .347 wOBA to them. Peralta, who sits high in the D-Backs' lineup against southpaws, has a career .365 wOBA against right-handed pitching, showing off some of the biggest splits in the bigs. Because his splits are so insane, and because he doesn't hit much against left-handers, his price is down across the industry. Take advantage of that.
Lorenzo Cain - The worst pitcher on the mound tonight may be Kyle Lohse, which is saying something considering the bad arms that are going tonight. He's generally been a pitcher who gives up hits to lefties, but he's been more of a reverse-splits right-hander in 2015, which could play to Cain's favor. Cain does have typical splits depending on pitcher handedness, but his depreciated price tag on FanDuel -- even DraftKings -- makes him an intriguing option, as he's close to the top of a lineup on a team that could score a good number of runs tonight.
Alternative Option: David Ortiz