4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for 6/11/15
Each day here on numberFire, we'll be providing you with four potential offenses to stack in your daily fantasy lineups. These are the offenses that provide huge run potential on that given day based on matchups and other factors.
After reading through these suggestions, make sure to check out our daily projections. These can either let you know which players to include in each stack, or which guy best complements said stack.
Another great tool is our custom optimal lineups, which are available for premium subscribers. Within the tool, we've added the option to stack teams -- you choose the team you want to stack, show how many players you want to use within the stack, and the tool will create a lineup based on this that you can then customize.
Now, let's get to the stacks. Here are the teams you should be targeting in daily fantasy baseball today.
This has not been Matt Garza's year. One year after posting a 3.54 FIP, he's chilling at 4.87 through his first 69.0 innings in 2015. His strikeouts are down, walks are way up, and balls are flying out of the park. Now, he faces the Washington Nationals and their perpetual juiciness. Ruh roh.
Part of the reason for Garza's struggles is guys simply aren't swinging and missing any more. His whiff rate has decreased to 16.4 percent from 18.8 last year. His first-pitch strike percentage is down, and people aren't chasing balls out of the zone. This makes his struggles seem at least largely sustainable and the Nats a good play for the late slate.
It seems as though people have realized that Bryce Harper is an a'ight hitter. His price is up to $5,700 on DraftKings for that late slate. If you can fit him in your lineup, great. If not, just flood your lineup with the guys hitting around him. They are much cheaper, and they still benefit from his stick skills through runs and RBI's.
This is one of those games where a stack of either club is justifiable. The Reds have crushed left-handed pitching this year, ranking fifth in wOBA. I'm rolling with the Cubs simply because Michael Lorenzen has had such tough sledding in his premier big league voyage.
The Cubs' main problem this year against right-handed pitching has been strikeouts. No team does so in a higher percentage of plate appearances in these situations than the north-siders. However, Lorenzen averages just 5.40 strikeouts per nine innings as opposed to walking 5.17 per nine. This has blown his FIP up to 5.74 and is the reason why the Cubs ranking 20th in wOBA against righties doesn't scare me off of this stack.
As he showed last night, Chris Coghlan actually has some pop against righties. His .205 isolated slugging is second on the team behind only Anthony Rizzo, but Coghlan will run you just $3,500 on DraftKings. The Cubs didn't move him up to fifth in the order for funsies. He's a better tourney play than cash game, but he provides decent upside for the price.
I know that Chris Rusin is coming off of a sweet start against these same Marlins less than one week ago. I know that he has a 1.45 ERA and a 2.62 FIP. I get it. I'm just not yet convinced that he's good enough to hold down the team that ranks third in the league against left-handers in wOBA again.
There are a lot of things to like about what Rusin has done so far this year. His strikeouts and ground-ball percentage are up, his walks are down, batters are chasing his pitches, and he's getting more swings and misses. That's a textbook recipe for improvement. But how much weight should we place on his last 18.2 innings when his previous 108.2 innings showed a much different pitcher?
The pricing on Giancarlo Stanton has left the building. He's at $5,800 on the DraftKings late slate... but I still think he might be worth it. His isolated slugging percentage against lefties is .550. For perspective, the unfadable Josh Donaldson is at .372 versus south paws. If Stanton hits it, odds are it's going places. He already has his double dong for the week out of the way, but that doesn't mean he can't do it again.
Boston Red Sox
Not going to lie to all of you: I have no idea what to think about this game. In theory, the Orioles should be great at hitting left-handed pitching. They have not been. The Red Sox should be better against righties than their early-season numbers would indicate. With an over/under of 8.5, Vegas thinks some runs will be scored, so I guess we're rolling with the Red Sox because of Chris Tillman, though I'm still hesitant to do so.
Tillman has struggled mightily to miss bats and find the zone this year. His swinging strike percentage is 7.7 percent this year, much below the league average for starters of 9.0. He also lags behind in whiff rate, and guys aren't chasing his pitches out of the zone even a little bit. This puts him in a tough spot and makes him a guy we can target with stacks.
The positives here for Boston's offense are that they don't strike out at all against righties while walking at a decent clip. That said, they also rank 18th in wOBA and just 26th in isolated slugging. Those are not stacking-friendly numbers. David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval are the three guys in the order that have slugging percentages north of .450 off of righties, so start there and see where things go for this one.