The Numbers Behind Julio Teheran's 2015 Struggles
After seemingly establishing himself as the ace of the staff last year, Julio Teheran has had a pretty rough 2015 season. Despite stating that he wasn't affected by a possible injury after his start against the Mets in April, Teheran's inconsistent performance is starting to worry manager Fredi Gonzalez.
He’s struggling with giving up the longball, and he’s getting mashed like a potato on the road.
To make matters worse, his walks per nine innings is also at a career high 3.84 and ranks twelfth among qualified starters.
You can see that he’s had a lack of control in 2015 .
Compare that to his control in 2014.
Problems with the Long Ball
As of now, Teheran has given up 12 home runs with those evenly split between righties and lefties. He’s on pace to surpass his home run allowed total of 22 at the current rate he’s going (he let up 22 in both 2013 and 2014). According to FanGraphs, his HR/9 is 1.77 and that ranks fifth amongst qualified starters. He currently ranks seventh with a HR/FB of 17.9%.
According to BaseballSavant, he's been serving home runs up on a platter.
The pitch that’s surrendered most of the home runs has been his slider, which he’s using a lot more this year. His usage has gone up from 19.9% last year to 26.2%. Granted, he’s only surrendered one more slider for a home run than his other pitches, but his changed approach obviously hasn’t been the best adjustment overall.
Road Woes
The disparity of his splits this season are pretty amazing.
| 2015 | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHH | 0.350 | 0.432 | 0.602 | 0.443 |
| RHH | 0.237 | 0.320 | 0.434 | 0.328 |
The interesting thing to note is that righties can’t seem to hit well when he pitches at home, but he’s getting crushed from both sides of the plate when on the road.
| Home | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHH | 0.326 | 0.383 | 0.558 | 0.407 |
| RHH | 0.065 | 0.176 | 0.071 | 0.134 |
| Away | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHH | 0.367 | 0.465 | 0.633 | 0.468 |
| RHH | 0.326 | 0.396 | 0.609 | 0.431 |
His road opponents have consisted of the following: Marlins, Blue Jays, Mets, Nationals, Dodgers and the Giants. He’s faced a good mix of teams that are at the top and middle of the league in offensive production, but it’s hard to pinpoint the drastic decrease in performance on the road from 2014 to 2015.
Here’s a look at his overall home/away splits for 2015 in comparison to last year.
| 2015 | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.191 | 0.276 | 0.318 | 0.265 | 1.82 | 3.50 |
| Away | 0.342 | 0.425 | 0.619 | 0.447 | 6.94 | 6.89 |
| 2014 | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 0.208 | 0.261 | 0.344 | 0.266 | 2.11 | 3.43 |
| Away | 0.245 | 0.297 | 0.374 | 0.298 | 3.68 | 3.55 |
The huge takeaway from this comparison is that his current peripherals on the road are drastically worse than last year’s. His 2015 road numbers make it look like he’s been pitching in Colorado for every start.
Something that should see some regression are his BABIP numbers. On the road, lefties and righties have a BABIP of .375 and .354. These are well above the league average of .295.
Teheran is obviously having a lot of trouble on the road this year, and you can’t really say that his knee is the culprit because he’s still succeeding at home. BABIP regression will be Teheran’s best friend throughout the season, but he needs to help himself out by lowering his walk rate.
