MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 5/12/15
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As for today's lineups -- those can be found here. The information below is to help you understand why particular players are being picked, because we don't want you going into the things completely blind. We want to help you. Keep in mind, however, that things often change up until the games start, so make sure you're refreshing the optimal lineups as close to the start of games as possible.
Jake Arrieta – There are a good amount of directions you can go tonight at pitcher, but Arrieta seems to be the safest bet. The Cubbies get the Mets at Wrigley, a team performing relatively well in terms of strikeout rate against righties. But they have the fifth-worst wOBA in the league when in the split. Arrieta and his 9.24 strikeout per nine rate -- which is down from last year -- shouldn't have a ton of trouble tonight in a game that not only favors Chicago, but has a relatively low over/under.
Alternative Options: Chris Archer
Mike Bolsinger – Bolsinger has just one six-inning game under his belt this year, where he struck out five Giants in a 3-2 loss. In 52 innings pitched last year with the D-Backs, he threw to a respectable 4.01 FIP (5.50 ERA), and an even better 3.31 xFIP. This was thanks to a pretty unlucky BABIP of .355. Tonight he'll face a Marlins lineup in Los Angeles -- not only will he be pitching in a pitcher's park, but the Marlins have the sixth worst strikeout rate against right-handers this year, as well as just an above average wOBA despite a high BABIP. If you want a cheap play for a GPP, Bolsinger could be it.
Alternative Options: Noah Syndergaard
Bryce Harper - We all know that Bryce Harper's a beast, but it's scary to think about what could happen tonight. He gets the platoon split against Rubby De La Rosa in Arizona, a hitter's park. Against right-handers this year, Harper has a .458 wOBA and .381 ISO (don't you love early-season numbers?), and while his career numbers are understandably not that ridiculous, he certainly has hit righties better than lefties. La Rosa, too, has given up a .354 wOBA to left-handers during his career. It all adds up to a good matchup for Bryce.
Adam Jones - The Orioles are expected to score close to five runs tonight in a game with a nine run over/under according to Vegas as they face left-hander Mark Buehrle. So far this year, Buehrle has a 6.00 ERA, a 5.39 FIP and is giving up 1.64 home runs per nine innings. He's been horrible. While Jones isn't an extreme splits guy, he's the strongest bat in the Orioles lineup, and is priced very reasonably on both big sites. If you don't use Jones, make sure you're at least getting a little Baltimore exposure tonight.
Jimmy Rollins - Rollins continues to be priced in a good spot at a position that generally lacks upside and strong bats. He's been a very boom or bust play this year, but tonight he gets Dan Haren in LA, who's pitched to a 4.61 FIP this year (2.68 ERA). Rollins hasn't hit to where we've seen him hit in year's past, but there's a chance the Dodgers score some runs on a pitcher who should be regressing.
Pedro Alvarez - The Pirates will face Sean O'Sullivan today in Philly. This means I love the Pirate bats. Not only is there a favorable park shift for Pittsburgh, but O'Sullivan, in 11 innings pitched this year, has a 6.78 FIP and 2.45 home run per nine ratio. The crazy part is that these numbers aren't far off from his career 5.64 FIP and 1.60 home run per nine. Alvarez has the platoon advantage -- he loves some righty pitching -- and has a great opportunity to go yard tonight.
Alternative Option: Mike Moustakas