4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for 4/22/15
Each day here on numberFire, we'll be providing you with four potential offenses to stack in your daily fantasy lineups. These are the offenses that provide huge run potential on that given day based on matchups and other factors.
After reading through these suggestions, make sure to check out our daily projections. These can either let you know which players to include in each stack, or which guy best complements said stack.
Another great tool is our custom optimal lineups, which are available for premium subscribers. Within the tool, we've added the option to stack teams -- you choose the team you want to stack, show how many players you want to use within the stack, and the tool will create a lineup based on this that you can then customize.
Now, let's get to the stacks. I'm not going to include the Padres and Rockies at Coors Field in here because y'all are smart enough to know that you should stack them if you can afford it. Here are the other teams you should be targeting in daily fantasy baseball today.
As last night showed, the Rogers Centre is not a fan of low-scoring pitcher's duels. That's probs not going to change today with an over/under of 8.5 and Aaron Sanchez on the mound.
This year, the sample size of left-handers facing Sanchez is small, but their production against him is stupidly large. While it is unwise to base any decisions off of 18 batters faced, these numbers are simply too bonkers not to share. Of the 18 left-handed batters Sanchez has faced this year, 12 have reached base. Nine have gotten hits. Five of those hits have been for extra bases, including three home runs. This all goes for a slash of .600/.667/1.133 with a .740 wOBA. Demons live, fam, and they be creepin' in Sanchez's stat line.
Does this mean you should automatically roster every lefty in the Orioles' order? Absolutely not. But Sanchez's projected ERA (in projection systems where he was a starter such as ZiPS and Steamer) was north of 4.50. That, plus Baltimore's bats and his early-season struggles, should be enough to get you some solid ownership in this lineup.
Kansas City Royals
Of all of the pitchers that received numberFire projections prior to the season, only six players had a projected ERA higher than 4.70 with more than 60 innings pitched. Mike Pelfrey was one of them! Gold stars for everyone!
Pelfrey isn't a fly-ball pitcher, but that shouldn't scare you off from stacking the Royals. They'll still score runs; it just might not be via the long-ball. Through two starts, Pelfrey's FIP is at 6.62. If you control for his 22.2 home run to fly-ball ratio, his xFIP is still 5.24. His fWAR is already at -0.2. Stack it! Stack it all!
Even if it's not likely to continue, Mike Moustakas has been a freaking baller this year. He's slashing at .327/.413/.545 with a .419 wOBA with three tanks in 65 plate appearances. He might not keep this pace up, but he's left-handed and batting second in a lineup that is likely to post a sweet run total tonight. And his price is still only up to $4,100 on DraftKings. I can dig that.
I feel bad about this. There aren't a lot of Northwestern alums in the big leagues (shoutout to Joe Girardi!). J.A. Happ is one of them. As a fellow former Wildcat, this makes me feel a bit guilty. However, the Astros' offense could have a big night, so a tourney stack with their boppers might not be a bad idea. Forgive me, Evanston.
Happ did a nice job last year of increasing the number of ground balls against him, going to 40.6 percent ground-ball rate from 36.5 the previous year. Even with that, though, he's still below the league average. The Astros entered play last night as one of only three teams with a fly-ball rate at 40 percent or higher. That has the potential to go poorly.
The Astros offense has gotten significantly less putrid than it was the first portion of the season. After averaging 2.125 runs per game the first eight games, they've averaged five runs per over their past six. It's not the early-2000's Yankees, but it's enough to bump with them in some tourneys tonight.
On top of this, the DraftKings pricing on this game is dope. Nelson Cruz is the only hitter priced above $4,400. George Springer is the highest-priced Astro at $4,300. This will allow you to roster plenty of guys with better park factors if you roll with an Astros stack while still having upside.
Jered Weaver has been a solid pitcher for a long time. But, he's 32 now, and his FIP has increased each of the past five season. This led to a 4.19 FIP last year. Through two starts this year, that's up to 5.84.
On top of Weaver's succumbing to age, he has always been a fly-ball pitcher. He had the third lowest ground-ball rate of all qualified starters last year at a clip of 32.9 percent. That is, quite simply, dong-tastic.
The big buzz-kill here is Ben Zobrist's injury. That severely caps the offense's upside. It also, though, means they're cheap as heck. There's not a single dude on their team that costs more than $4,000 on DraftKings today. You can make it rain on Clayton Kershaw, pay up for any hitter you want, or just swim in it. It's your world. Live ya life, homes.