MLB Betting Guide for Wednesday 6/7/23: Should We Back a Surprising Over in Milwaukee?
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
White Sox ML (+102)
The Yankees' spread is a popular choice today as most expect them to rebound today against the lowly White Sox. I'm not so sure -- and neither are oddsmakers with this close number that hasn't budged.
I've backed Lance Lynn to inconsistent results in 2023. He's absolutely been unlucky to some degree, sporting a 6.55 ERA compared to a 4.04 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), 12.0% swinging-strike rate, and 36.7% flyball rate which all indicate better days are ahead. Lynn's just been torched by a 20.8% HR/FB ratio that towers over the league average (11.8%).
Despite the issues, I certainly trust him more than New York's Randy Vasquez. Vazquez posted a 4.80 SIERA and a whopping 58.1% flyball rate in his debut, which resulted in 1.93 HR/9 against the Padres.
Lynn had ceded at least seven earned runs on three separate occasions this year -- the third coming in his last start. In the previous two following games, he posted a quality start. I wouldn't be surprised if a third came against a Yankees lineup that's scuffled versus righties during the past two weeks (92 wRC+).
Over 8.0 (-105)
Corbin Burnes has an odd analytical profile, but it's one that doesn't scare me off this contrarian over.
Burnes' 3.75 ERA is fine, but his 4.44 SIERA has been juiced by a 9.7% walk rate. He's not exactly at risk of getting shelled with a 29.5% hard-hit rate allowed, but ducks could still make their way onto the pond. Plus, when Burnes departs, he's left for a bullpen with the seventh-worst xFIP as a group in MLB this year (4.42).
Overs aren't fun in Milwaukee Brewers' affairs, but there's reason to believe their mediocre offense can get going against Baltimore righty Dean Kremer. He's in the seventh percentile of hard-hit rate allowed among pitchers (48.8%) and also carries a 4.56 SIERA and 40.8% flyball rate allowed that are equally targetable.
This low total would imply a pair of ace-level pitchers on the hill in Milwaukee, but these two have been just fine -- if not due for regression toward worse. This is my favorite total today.
Cardinals ML (+122)
Jon Gray is on the ballot as one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this year.
Gray's 2.51 ERA is mostly fool's gold. He's held a 4.60 SIERA behind it with a 20.1% strikeout rate which would be the lowest of his career in a season with double-digit starts. The Rangers' good fortune in the win-loss column has carried over to their 2022 prized offseason acquisition.
The Cardinals will counter with Jack Flaherty today, and it's a bit of the opposite story for him. Flaherty's 4.55 ERA is right in line with a 4.72 SIERA, and his strikeout rate (23.1%) is significantly better than Gray's. He's also keeping baseballs in the yard with just a 31.6% flyball rate allowed.
Texas and St. Louis both have top-10 offenses (by OPS) against righties, so this could spiral quickly if either pitching staff is off their game. Not only do I see Gray as more "due" for a drop-off, but St. Louis' bullpen (3.90 xFIP) has significantly outperformed Texas' (4.44) if this game isn't decided before these gentlemen depart.
I'll take the better bullpen, capable starter, and a team looking to avoid the sweep at a +122 price tag.