MLB Betting Guide for Tuesday 6/6/23: The Unofficial Start of Summer in Cincinnati
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 10.5 (-110)
After much deliberation, if I'm worried about the Dodgers scoring, the over is probably the right side here.
L.A. has a tougher-than-advertised battle with Cincinnati's Luke Weaver, whose 5.36 ERA is hiding a stout 3.96 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Still, the Dodgers are baseball's third-best offense against righties by OPS (.787), and they'll get to tackle a Reds bullpen with the league's ninth-highest reliever xFIP (4.38) once he departs.
I'm actually optimistic about the Reds' offense today, too. Tony Gonsolin has struggled mightily since returning from an ankle issue, amassing a 5.07 SIERA, a low 17.1% strikeout rate, and an elevated 45.5% flyball rate thus far. He's playing with fire allowing so many potential tanks at one of the league's best hitter's parks.
This number is massive, but picturesque hitting weather could be an unofficial opening salvo of summer shootouts at Great American Ball Park.
Rockies ML (+122)
Lamet, the former 2020 Cy Young contender, has been met with a ton of bad luck in Colorado to compile a 13.17 ERA -- and that's going to happen there. However, Lamet's 4.96 SIERA is much better, and he's put forth a solid 23.3% strikeout rate behind velocity that's right in line with his career year. His expected ERA (3.91 xERA) is actually solid.
It's a tough matchup today with a Giants club that has a .757 OPS against righties, but San Fran's hefty 25.7% strikeout rate could play right into the fireballer's hands. I actually feel better about Lamet than the Giants' situation today.
They'll start the somewhat-reliable John Brebbia as an opener, but it'll fall on Sean Manaea in the middle of the game. Manaea's frightening 6.42 xERA, 11.4% walk rate, and 1.96 HR/9 allowed led to this demotion to the bullpen.
With the bulk of the money sitting on the Giants' spread, the Rockies are being largely overlooked today. I'll take them at this curiously short number.
Cubs ML (-102)
The Cubs can be a frustrating offense in both splits, but I like their chances to rebound from last night's shutout tonight.
Overall, Chicago's .794 OPS against lefties is solid work, and Tyler Anderson has been one of MLB's least effective starters to this point. His 5.83 SIERA, 13.6% strikeout rate, and 10.1% walk rate are all poor, and he's been fortunate to not be bitten worse by a 46.6% fly-ball rate.
The host Angels will square off with Hayden Wesneski on the other side, and Wesneski's slow start has quietly subsided. Despite an unlucky 20.0% HR/FB ratio, he's still crawled back to a 4.63 SIERA. The Halos (.748 OPS versus righties) remains a solid test in this split, but they're the less effective of these two clubs.
As a slight underdog, I also trust Chicago's bullpen (4.09 xFIP) more than Los Angeles' (4.31) as this game potentially hangs in the balance.