3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 6/6/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Mookie Betts To Hit a Home Run (+300)
It's not if the Los Angeles Dodgers are going to hit home runs tonight, it's how many?
That's because they have an elite matchup, and it leads to them carrying a 6.01 implied run total, which is the second-highest on the slate. They are going up against Luke Weaver, who might be the worst pitcher on the slate. Add in the fact we have great hitting weather in an elite hitter's park, and it's a powder keg waiting to be lit.
Weaver comes in allowing a .408 wOBA, .604 SLG, 2.42 HR/9, 40.6% fly-ball rate, and 42.0% hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters -- a mouth-watering stat line to see. It puts him in a very tough spot against an always-dangerous Dodgers lineup, and it should lead to plenty of scoring.
We turn to the elite Mookie Betts, who comes in with a 139 wRC+, .376 wOBA, .253 ISO, 43.4% fly-ball rate, and 40.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. We're two months into the MLB season, and this might be my favorite matchup of the year. As always, I'm adding Betts To Record an RBI (+120).
Logan Gilbert Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-112)
Logan Gilbert is coming off a rough start but is still a great pitcher.
Gilbert's last outing against the New York Yankees is one to forget, but it's merely a blip on the radar for his overall season. Gilbert comes in with a 28.7% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate, 3.17 xFIP, 11.5% swinging-strike rate, and 28.4% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). He has hit the over on this 5.5 prop in 9 of his 11 starts this season. He brings a strong level of consistency to the table and is worth backing tonight.
At face value, the matchup against the San Diego Padres seems to be a tough one, but it's also filled with potential strikeouts. Yes, the Padres have power, but they also come in with a 24.0% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the 10th-highest in the league. I like Gilbert to bounce back today and rack up some strikeouts.
Eddie Rosario To Record an RBI (+150)
Eddie Rosario is on fire right now and getting a player prop for the Atlanta Braves' offense is never a bad idea.
The Braves have a 5.47 implied run total and are always capable of reaching that in the blink of an eye. They have power up and down their lineup, and recently, Rosario has been the one showing that off. He has a six-game hitting streak in the works and has notched three home runs in that time. He doing that with an 85 wRC+, .302 wOBA, .201 ISO, .287 BABIP, 38.6% fly-ball rate, and 40.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
This puts him in a great spot versus Carlos Carrasco, who comes in with a 5.54 xFIP, 12.9% strikeout rate, 14.5% walk rate, and .302 SLG versus left-handed hitters. Carrasco isn't a pitcher we need to fear, and with Rosario having great odds tonight, this is a clear play to be excited about.
