3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 5/22/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Teoscar Hernandez To Hit a Home Run (+400)
The Seattle Mariners have a 4.71 implied run total tonight and a soft matchup against the Oakland Athletics' pitching staff.
Surprise, surprise. We're targeting hitters up against bad pitchers from the Athletics, which presents the Mariners' hitters with plenty of value tonight. Oakland will have Kyle Muller on the mound, who comes in with a .410 wOBA, .538 SLG, 5.16 xFIP, 1.56 HR/9, and 45.0% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters this season. When it gets to the Athletics' bullpen, it will be an equally great spot.
This has me turning to Teoscar Hernandez, who has a 113 wRC+, .328 wOBA, .317 ISO, 46.2% fly-ball rate, and 38.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. The power is clearly there for Hernandez, who has been hot at the dish with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. I love this matchup and will also be adding Hernandez To Record an RBI (+130).
Bailey Ober Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-112)
The San Francisco Giants present a favorable matchup for right-handed pitchers and their strikeout props.
That leads us to Bailey Ober tonight, who comes in with a 24.1% strikeout rate, 12.0% swinging-strike rate, and 26.4% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). This has led to Ober racking up six strikeouts in each of his last four starts, combined with going for at least 91 pitches in three of those starts. He has a long leash and shouldn't be getting pulled from the game early.
The Giants come in with a 24.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers this season, which is the fifth-worst in the league. That strikeout rate jumps to 27.0% while on the road versus righties this season, which is the second-worst in the league. Ober has been consistent and has a soft matchup to keep that trend going tonight.
Rafael Devers To Record 2+ Total Bases (-120)
Finally, let's turn to Rafael Devers to simply record 2+ total bases.
Devers is one of the elite hitters in the league, and he's coming off of two games without a hit. This is not only a play on some natural variance for Devers but also a solid matchup against Jaime Barria. To this point in the season, Barria has been working out of the bullpen for the Los Angeles Angels, which gives us a very small sample size.
We'll look at his career numbers versus left-handed hitters where he has allowed a .408 SLG, 4.64 xFIP, 1.22 HR/9, 19.2% strikeout rate, 39.2% fly-ball rate, and 34.7% hard-contact rate. Barria is not a pitcher you need to worry about on the mound -- it's that simple.
Devers comes in with a 102 wRC+, .327 wOBA, .248 ISO, 40.9% fly-ball rate, and 39.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. It's great hitting weather and a great matchup for Devers.
