MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 5/18/23: Will Cleveland Avoid a Sweep in Chicago?
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
Over 9.0 (-104)
I was waffling sides in this game until I ultimately came to the conclusion that I can't trust either of these pitchers. That probably leads to an over.
The Angels will send Tyler Anderson to the bump, and the unorthodox lefty has struggled again in 2023. Anderson's 5.28 ERA is supported by a 5.78 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 5.45 expected ERA (xERA). His strikeout rate, as usual, is low (14.4%), and he's ceded 1.43 HR/9.
Baltimore smokes left-handed pitching, amassing a 124 wRC+ and .183 ISO at this point. It's hard to see them not dishing damage to Anderson, but the Halos' offense should be able to fight back.
Tyler Wells' 2.68 ERA is sparkling, but there's plenty of ugly hiding behind it. His 4.14 SIERA is much higher, and he's also sporting hefty totals for a flyball rate (50.1%) and HR/9 count (1.53). He's also not overly dominant with just a 22.3% strikeout rate.
L.A. has a .741 OPS in this split (10th-best in MLB), so these offenses should combine for plenty of work today.
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
Under 7.5 (-104)
This game has an opposite handicap. I completely trust both pitchers to get outs here.
Cleveland's Logan Allen is putting together a solid rookie campaign. He's got a 3.96 SIERA to support his 3.43 ERA, his strikeout rate (25.3%) is solid, and he's ceded just a 35.9% hard-hit rate allowed. The White Sox aren't a particularly scary matchup against lefties, sitting 17th in OPS (.740) against them.
However, the embattled Dylan Cease could carry this total on his own. He fired six scoreless innings against Houston last time out, which looks more like the 2022 Cy Young contender that had a 2.70 xERA last year.
Cease's 4.28 xERA this year isn't awful, but this matchup makes all the difference. The Guards' active roster, now without Jose Ramirez due to a family matter, has a league-worst 73 wRC+ against righties. They mustered just two runs last night against the struggling Mike Clevinger.
White Sox -1.5 (+150) was an angle I pondered, but my respect for Allen's work to this point led me to this wager instead.
