MLB

3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 5/16/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Jose Ramirez To Hit a Home Run (+390)

Jose Ramirez is one of the most consistent hitters in the league, and he has an elite matchup tonight.

The Cleveland Guardians have a 4.48 implied run total tonight and are set to take on Lance Lynn, who is having a very rough season. To this point in the year, Lynn is allowing a .700 SLG, .466 wOBA, 4.00 HR/9, 46.2% fly-ball rate, and 50.9% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. Lefty hitters clearly have the drop on Lynn this season; 8 of the 11 home runs he's allowed have come in this split.

Before we get to Ramirez, let's take note of the park factors tonight. The Chicago White Sox are at home and Guaranteed Rate Field is currently the second-best park for home runs this season. We also see 10-15 mph wind blowing out to right field tonight, making this spot essentially picture-perfect for homers tonight.

Ramirez comes in with a 149 wRC+, .387 wOBA, .156 ISO, and 47.3% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. It's also fair to say Ramirez has been underperforming this season with only four home runs to his name. However, taking a look at his Rolling Expected wOBA and Rolling Expected xSLG over his last 100 plate appearances, he's well above the league average but is lacking the results on the stat sheet.

The matchup is too good, and he's an elite hitter, making this a clear home run target tonight. As usual, I'm adding Ramirez To Record an RBI (+120).

Domingo German Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-102)

Next, we turn to under 4.5 strikeouts for Domingo German of the New York Yankees.

German has been solid this season, but he's not jumping off the page, and this is a very tough matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays. German is carrying a 26.3% strikeout rate, 15.3% swinging-strike rate, and 30.9% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%).

Despite those strong numbers, this matchup doesn't set up to be a spot where he can show them off. The Blue Jays have a 21.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the eighth-lowest in the league. That rate drops to 19.9%, when they are at home in this split -- as we see them tonight. They are one of the most disciplined teams at the plate and aren't giving away free chances.

German has also failed to hit 90 pitches in seven of his eight starts this season. Not getting deep into the game will limit his chances to rack up strikeouts in what is already a tough matchup.

Jarred Kelenic To Record 2+ Total Bases (-125)

With a 5.49 implied run total, the Seattle Mariners are a team to target for player props tonight.

This is a rather straightforward situation for the Mariners, which should make them a go-to option for many tonight. First off, Fenway Park is one of the best hitter's parks in the league and a massive positive park shift for the Mariners. Next, we have some wind blowing out to right-center field -- another boost for hitters.

The Boston Red Sox will have Nick Pivetta on the mound, who comes in with a .396 wOBA, .583 SLG, 4.32 xFIP, 2.93 HR/9, 43.9% fly-ball rate, and 39.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters this season. That is essentially exactly what we want to see when targeting pitchers for player props.

Jarred Kelenic has been solid this year with a 140 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .257 ISO, 40.0% hard-contact rate, and .359 BABIP versus right-handed pitchers.

I love this spot for Kelenic and the Mariners to keep the offense rolling.