FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Friday 5/12/23

We jump from last night's minuscule main slate to a massive 13-game offering on Friday. While pitching is rather top-heavy, there are a crazy number of ways to go for offense tonight.

Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process. Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

For such a large slate, pitching is a little trickier than you might expect, as two of the night's best pitchers also happen to have difficult matchups.

We begin with Spencer Strider ($11,500), who's been one of the year's best overall pitchers, coming in with both the league's best SIERA (2.43) and strikeout rate (42.3%) among qualified starters. He's logged at least eight strikeouts in all of his seven starts, and that includes double-digit performances in two of the last three.

However, what continues to hold Strider back from being a consistent DFS behemoth is an 8.9% walk rate, which has contributed to a lack of innings. Despite reaching at least 95 pitches in every start, Strider's gone six or more innings just three times this year.

The good news is that when he has gone at least six frames, the fantasy points have been in abundance, with scores of 55, 55, and 73 FanDuel points.

He'll have his work cut out for him to reach those heights tonight against Toronto, though, as the Blue Jays' active roster owns the 10th-best wRC+ (110) versus right-handed pitching this season. Still, they're roughly league-average in strikeout rate, so Strider should be able to rack up his usual punchouts, and he's getting the benefit of the doubt given that Toronto has a modest 3.88 implied team total.

Gerrit Cole ($11,300) is the other arm I was referring to, and he might be in an even tougher spot against Tampa Bay. It's no secret that the Rays have been an absolute menace at the plate in 2023, and their active roster leads the league with a ridiculous 138 wRC+ versus righties. This will also be Cole's second straight start facing the Rays, and repeat opponents tend to be a negative for the pitcher.

So, this really boils down to betting on the talents of Cole while simultaneously betting that these Rays are due for regression after wildly exceeding early-season expectations. After all, Tampa Bay was only an average offense in 2022. For his part, Cole's SIERA (3.55), strikeout rate (28.6%), and walk rate (7.9%) are all worse compared to last season, but they're still some of the better overall marks on the slate.

Tampa Bay has one of the night's lowest implied team totals (3.75), which should further give us confidence in Cole tonight.

Given the matchups of Strider and Cole -- in addition to their high salaries -- that makes Corbin Burnes ($10,000) that much more of a conundrum tonight. Under normal circumstances, Burnes would be the easy answer to this slate against Kansas City, a team with an 85 wRC+, 24.3% strikeout rate, and 6.4% walk rate versus right-handers.

But Burnes has an underwhelming 4.53 SIERA, 19.8% strikeout rate, and 8.6% walk rate, and now that we're seven starts into the season, it's hard to not be at least a little concerned. He's gone over five strikeouts just once this season, which was unheard of in prior campaigns.

Rostering Burnes requires taking a leap of faith, but it's one that could be rewarded if the former Cy Young winner can find his form again. Despite his lack of 2023 success, it's possible that he's still a popular play at this salary, which is something to consider in tournaments.

Sonny Gray ($10,800) is another alternative, and unlike Burnes, he's done quite well for himself this season, posting a 3.67 SIERA, 29.0% strikeout rate, and 48.0% ground-ball rate. His 9.3% walk rate is a blemish on his resume, and allowing zero home runs to this point is an anomaly, but it's hard to complain about what Gray brings to the table.

The Cubs aren't the easiest opponent, and both a 20.3% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate against righties could put a dent in Gray's path to fantasy points. But what he does have going in his favor is roughly double-digit mph winds blowing in from center -- leading to a slate-low 3.40 implied team total for the Cubbies -- so he has a good chance of keeping his no-home-run streak going for another start.

MacKenzie Gore ($10,200) gets a shout as the one other guy with a five-figure salary, but he has a 12.0% walk rate, and his spot versus the Mets isn't great. He did produce a season-high 10 strikeouts and 55 FanDuel points against this team in late April, though, and his 30.4% strikeout rate is elite. You could do worse than roll the dice here, but he's firmly behind the previous four.

For someone closer to a value play, I suppose Martin Perez ($9,200) is an option because he's facing the Athletics (3.78 implied team total), but he has a meh 17.1% strikeout rate and will likely face almost an entire lineup of right-handed bats. He might be able to put up a solid score with a quality start and a win, but a ton would have to go his way for him to sniff any tournament-winning lineups.

If you're going by projections, Kyle Bradish ($6,200) and Ken Waldichuk ($6,400) pop as far and away the best values of the slate at their non-existent salaries. I'm not sure it's the best move to go here when there are aces who could put up massive scores tonight, but the option is available. Bradish has a 51.6% ground-ball rate and did get up to 46 FanDuel points a few starts back; the Pirates have just a 4.13 implied team total against him. Waldichuk has been objectively terrible, but he has prospect pedigree (34.0% strikeout rate in Triple-A last year) and is facing a Texas team that gives away some punchouts.

Hitting Breakdown

The Philadelphia Phillies are visiting Coors Field this weekend, and I'm sure you'll be shocked that they have the slate's highest implied team total (5.82) against Austin Gomber.

It's ugly across the board for Gomber. The left-hander enters with a 5.56 SIERA, 14.7% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate, and 40.4% ground-ball rate over seven starts, and he's given up 1.62 dingers per 9 innings. I don't need to tell you any more than that to show what a fantastic opportunity the Phillies have in front of them.

Trea Turner ($3,300) and J.T. Realmuto ($3,300) are the first right-handed batters to look at, and we don't even need to spend much cap space to include them. On the other hand, Nick Castellanos ($3,900) is over-salaried, but he's put up a .203 ISO this season and is looking closer to the guy we saw in Cincinnati.

Gomber is getting crushed by left-handed batters in a small 2023 sample, so Bryce Harper ($4,000) and Kyle Schwarber ($3,300) should be prominently featured, as well. Harper, in particular, has handled same-sided matchups just fine in his career.

Unsurprisingly, the Colorado Rockies also have a high implied team total (5.18) against Taijuan Walker. While Walker has a competent 23.6% strikeout rate and a rather good 52.1% ground-ball rate, he's struggled with walks (11.5%) and is getting pummeled for home runs (2.08 per 9 innings). Given both his high ground-ball rate and an inflated 27.6% homer-to-fly-ball rate, he's been unlucky to give up that many dingers, but it's not like he hasn't been allowing his share of hard contact.

Walker's been getting fewer grounders (47.4%) and strikeouts (19.0%) versus right-handed batters, so C.J. Cron ($3,200), and Kris Bryant ($3,300) are preferred choices. Among the batters hitting left-handed, Charlie Blackmon ($3,200), Jurickson Profar ($3,200), and Ryan McMahon ($3,100) are doing a good job of avoiding ground balls against righties and should join the other two in the top five slots of the order. As shown by these salaries, putting together a Colorado stack won't be too much trouble tonight.

Both sides of the Boston Red Sox-St. Louis Cardinals game are also in play. Not only do we have two potentially shaky veterans taking the mound in Adam Wainwright and James Paxton, but we're looking at some ideal hitting weather at Fenway Park.

Wainwright had a .444 BABIP in his 2023 debut last week, so he was probably more unlucky than anything else against Detroit. Still, we're talking about a 41-year-old who recorded a 17.8% strikeout rate last season, so it wouldn't be the least bit surprising for the long-time veteran to have his share of struggles this year.

Wainwright had a 4.74 xFIP versus lefty sticks last season, so Rafael Devers ($3,900), Alex Verdugo ($3,500), Masataka Yoshida ($3,900), and Jarren Duran ($3,900) are appealing options, albeit at higher salary cap hits than we would like. Righty Justin Turner ($2,900) is a value out of the three-hole, though, and Triston Casas ($2,700) and Enmanuel Valdez ($2,700) are some additional lefties we could see at the bottom of the lineup.

The Cardinals have been scuffling at the plate this year, but Paxton hasn't made an MLB start since 2021, and his 5.29 xFIP and 16.0% walk rate in Triple-A this year don't inspire much confidence. Paul Goldschmidt ($3,900) is the top choice, but you can go all-in on value if needed between the likes of Nolan Arenado ($2,800), Willson Contreras ($2,800), Tommy Edman ($2,700), and Juan Yepez ($2,200).

The San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Houston Astros are other standout stacks on a deep hitting slate. The Giants get right-hander Ryne Nelson, who's produced a 13.9% strikeout rate and has really struggled versus lefties. The Rangers are facing the aforementioned Waldichuk and his poor 5.24 SIERA, 18.1% strikeout rate, and 10.5% walk rate. The Dodgers and Astros have advantageous matchups versus Blake Snell and Michael Kopech, respectively, two pitchers who have been doling out walks left and right this year.