MLB
3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 5/4/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Jorge Mateo To Hit a Home Run (+600)

The Baltimore Orioles' lineup has plenty of power and can put that on display versus the Kansas City Royals.

A 5.21 implied run total is always good to see when we are targeting player props, and that is what the Orioles are carrying into their matchup against Jordan Lyles. There are several hitters from the Orioles you could consider for a home run today like Ryan Mountcastle (+390) or Adley Rutschman (+520), but Jorge Mateo (+600) brings plenty of power at a huge number.

To this point in the season, Lyles is allowing a .403 wOBA, .625 SLG, 6.21 xFIP, 2.50 HR/9, 54.8% fly-ball rate, and 31.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Those are among the worst numbers you will find on today's slate, making this an ideal pitcher to target.

When it comes to Mateo, he's quietly crushing the ball with a 160 wRC+, .401 wOBA, .326 ISO, 44.7% fly-ball rate, and 45.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.

I love everything about this matchup, and I'm adding Mateo To Record an RBI (+135).

Grayson Rodriguez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-112)

Not only is it a good matchup for the Orioles' hitters, but it's also a good matchup for their pitcher, Grayson Rodriguez.

Rodriguez is an exciting rookie for the Orioles and certainly making a strong impression to begin the season. He comes in with a 32.4% strikeout rate and 12.4% swinging-strike rate in his first five starts, which has allowed him to rack up six-plus strikeouts in four of those five starts.

It's also good to see that he has been at 91 total pitches in his last four starts, showing they have confidence in him to cede a decently long leash.

The Royals do not have a strong offense, and it puts Rodriguez in a spot to shine today. The Royals come in with a 25.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fifth-worst in the league. They're also carrying a .127 ISO (25th), 68 wRC+ (30th), and 37.2% fly-ball rate (15th).

They simply aren't a threatening offense -- and one that should allow Rodriguez to cruise to the over today.

Patrick Wisdom To Record 2+ Total Bases (+110)

When Patrick Corbin is on the mound, we take player props against him; that's the rule.

It can be really that simple when it comes to MLB player props every five-to-six days. Corbin is simply not a good pitcher, and that is shown today with the Chicago Cubs carrying a 5.25 implied run total, which is the second-highest on the slate outside of Coors Field.

This season, Corbin is allowing a .395 wOBA, .543 SLG, 4.76 xFIP, 2.05 HR/9, and a 12.8% strikeout rate. There's no reason to be worried about Corbin on the mound, and it presents a great opportunity for the Cubs' righties.

We look immediately to Patrick Wisdom with his 144 wRC+, .389 wOBA, .368 ISO, 50.0% fly-ball rate, and 50.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.

The Cubs are expected to get some runs on the board, which means plenty of runners on the bases, making this a great prop to target.

Related News

MLB Betting Guide for Friday 8/11/23: The Wrong Team Is Favored at Fenway Park

Austin Swaim  --  May 4th, 2023

3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 8/11/23

Thomas Vecchio  --  May 4th, 2023

MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 8/10/23: 3 Unders on a Slate with Dodgy Weather

Austin Swaim  --  May 4th, 2023