FanDuel Pitching Primer: Wednesday 5/3/23

Nailing the pitcher slot is the first step to having success in MLB DFS on FanDuel.

While it's possible to cash if you get a bad outing from a starter, it's markedly easier to do so when you get a good or excellent showing from your pitcher.

Weighing the importance of a pitcher's skill, salary, matchup, and park factors is the game within the game in MLB DFS. This piece is your home for a breakdown of the top pitching options each and every day. Let's dig in.

Top of the Heap

Shohei Ohtani ($11,100), Angels: When you've got the highest strikeout rate on the slate, you're in play.

Shohei was rocked for five earned by the Athletics last time out, so that's not the most glowing endorsement of his chances to shut down the Cardinals today. Still, Ohtani's 35.6% strikeout rate is a nuke waiting to happen, and he's done really well this year behind a 1.85 ERA and 3.66 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). He's allowed just a 27.4% hard-hit rate, too.

Those peripherals mean we can largely chalk up Oakland's effort to a BABIP-related fluke. St. Louis' low punchout rate against righties (20.1%) is the real concern for his upside today. However, the Redbirds have been held to three runs or fewer in six of their last eight.

The Cards are not playing well, and Ohtani's form is excellent with plenty of upside for whiffs.

Logan Gilbert ($9,800), Mariners: Gilbert will hope to avoid a similar outing Shohei had against the A's as he draws Oakland today.

He's also coming off a bumpy effort where he surrendered four runs in five innings against a tough Phillies lineup, but there's a reason we target the Athletics regularly with pitchers of both handednesses. Against righties, Oakland has a bottom-five OPS (.643) and a top-five strikeout rate (26.3%).

Gilbert's rough road outings appear to have been a bit unlucky, too. His 3.04 SIERA is still excellent, and he's sporting a 30.1% strikeout rate at a four-digit salary.

Due to Gilbert's combination of floor, upside and modest salary, he's my top pitcher today.

Dylan Cease ($8,900), White Sox: Though a step behind the first two options, Cease could come in handy if you've got an affinity for the Coors Field bats today.

Cease isn't safe. His 50.2% hard-hit rate allowed is a blowup waiting to happen, and that's wrapped into a pedestrian 4.15 ERA and 4.21 SIERA. However, we know the big-time upside Cease can bring to an individual start, and for as much of a mixed bag as he represents, you could say the same about the opposing Twins.

Minnesota has quality individual pieces against right-handed pitching, and they're not a mouth-watering matchup, per a 107 wRC+ in this split. However, as a collective, they've struck out the eighth-most against right-handers (24.9%).

We've got enough firepower on this slate that you'll need some punchouts to top tournament leaderboards, and Cease can provide that at a budget salary.

Tournament Options

Marcus Stroman ($10,500), Cubs: There just isn't a high likelihood Stroman can deliver on this lofty salary compared to the alternatives in his salary range.

Though Stro's 23.7% strikeout rate would represent a career-high mark, we're still working with just a month-long sample, and that's not a huge deviation from his low-whiff career numbers. It'll only get more difficult facing the Nationals tonight.

Washington's 19.4% punchy rate against right-handed pitching is the second-lowest in MLB. With a .626 OPS, they're not a dangerous offense, but the lack of strikeout upside is what is concerning.

Though listed as a tournament option, he's probably just the secondary alternative to Gilbert in cash games. A double-digit strikeout night would be a total anomaly in this matchup.

Kyle Gibson ($9,300), Orioles: Although he doesn't possess a super appealing profile, Gibson can deliver in elite matchups, and Baltimore's "ace" has one tonight.

The Royals own a league-worst 65 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and that's come with the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the split (26.0%). Gibson is far from the worst righty I'd consider against them.

He's posted a 4.54 SIERA in his first campaign with O's, and the strikeout rate (19.1%) isn't ideal, either. But he's got a tiny fly-ball rate (32.0%) and hard-hit rate allowed (37.3%).

He's a sound -- but uninspiring -- pitcher who could post a quality start in this stellar spot.

Quick Mound Visits

Shane Bieber ($9,600), Guardians: The Yankees are far from full strength, but Bieber has a profile I see very little potential for. He's due for regression toward a 4.67 SIERA, his swinging-strike rate (9.7%) is in the toilet, and his velocity remains concerningly low. He'll carry some popularity, but I'll pass -- even against New York's backups.

Louie Varland ($8,500), Twins: Louie surprised with eight strikeouts and a quality start in his debut against the aforementioned Yanks, and he's got another solid matchup with the White Sox. The Pale Hose have a paltry 83 wRC+ against righties. You could do far worse.

Alek Manoah ($8,400), Blue Jays: Punched out seven across five innings against a decent Mariners lineup, so he's heading in the right direction. I'll happily just gather more info tonight when fading him; targeting Boston's 119 wRC+ against righties in a premier hitting environment would be getting cute.

Eric Lauer ($7,700), Brewers: Expect unders and one-sided affairs at Coors Field all year. The Rockies are so bad they can't even hit at home, holding a pathetic 63 wRC+ and 26.0% strikeout rate against lefties. Lauer will come at a next-to-zero roster rate.