3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 5/3/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Randal Grichuk To Hit a Home Run (+320)
The Colorado Rockies are at home, and the scoring expectation is always high at Coors Field. With a 5.88 implied run total, the Rockies are forecasted to plate plenty of runs, and we want to capture that via some player props.
We'll be starting with Randal Grichuk, who recently made his season debut after starting the year on the injured list.
With that said, we'll take a look at his numbers from last season -- when he posted a 141 wRC+, .393 wOBA, .285 ISO, 37.9% fly-ball rate, and 41.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. Love every bit of that, and it puts him in a great spot for a homer in most matchups, especially ones at Coors Field.
He will be up against Eric Lauer, who allows a .391 wOBA, .540 SLG, 4.95 xFIP, 2.08 HR/9, 46.3% fly-ball rate, and 41.8% hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters this season. This does not set up to be an easy matchup for Lauer, and I'm going to be all over the Rockies tonight.
Of course, we need to tack on Grichuk To Record an RBI (+100), as well.
Miles Mikolas Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-102)
Miles Mikolas isn't known as a strikeout pitcher, and he has a tougher matchup against the Los Angeles Angels tonight.
On the season, Mikolas has a 19.3% strikeout rate, which is right in line with the rate he posted last season (19.0%) along with his career average (18.1%). On top of that, he has a low 8.1% swinging-strike rate, which is well below this year's league average of 11.1%. He's not a dominant pitcher on the mound, and it gives us the chance to fade him tonight.
The Angels come in with a 23.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is 16th in the league. This is just a league-average matchup for a pitcher who doesn't really rack up strikeouts to begin with.
We also see the Angels carrying a .165 ISO (12th), 39.6% fly-ball rate (5th), and 31.9% hard-contact rate (14th). They're a dangerous offense that can push pitchers out of the game early, leading to unders on strikeout props.
Matt Chapman To Record an RBI (+115)
The Toronto Blue Jays have a 5.01 implied total, and it's time for them to get back on track tonight.
They have a favorable matchup against Nick Pivetta, a pitcher we should certainly be looking to attack when he's on the bump. Fenway Park is one of the best hitter's parks in the league, so it's no surprise to see the Blue Jays with a high run expectation for tonight.
When it comes to Pivetta, he is struggling versus right-handed hitters to the tune of a .339 wOBA, .449 SLG, 5.20 xFIP, 1.46 HR/9, 48.6% fly-ball rate, and 45.9% hard-contact rate. None of that is good for him as the Blue Jays normally roll out a very right-handed dominant lineup.
We turn to Matt Chapman, who is scorching right-handed pitchers this season with a 176 wRC+, .423 wOBA, .253 ISO, 47.4% fly-ball rate, and 45.6% hard-contact rate. I really like this RBI prop, and I love the Blue Jays to score plenty of runs tonight.
