MLB Betting Guide for Tuesday 5/2/23: Are the D-Backs the Right Side as a Road Favorite?

Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.

Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.

Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals

Orioles -1.5 (+104)

Baseball can be random, but it's pretty simple to favor the Orioles by a solid margin today. The Royals project to struggle in both dimensions.

Kansas City's Ryan Yarbrough hasn't been near as effective in his first season with the team as he was with Tampa Bay. Yarborough has a 5.58 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) to start the year with a minuscule 9.3% strikeout rate, and 86.7% of swings have resulted in contact against him.

He's facing an Orioles squad with a .796 OPS against lefties (seventh-best in MLB). On the other side, Kansas City has a league-worst .591 OPS against righties, set to face Tyler Wells.

If Baltimore started a playoff series today, Wells might get the nod. He's been fantastic with a 2.91 ERA supported by a modest 4.09 SIERA, and he's allowing a hard-hit ball just 35.4% of the time when it's in play.

The Royals' ineptitude against right-handers and Baltimore's solid matchup on the other side both bode well for the O's here.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers

Diamondbacks -1.5 (+128)

With sub-4.00 ERAs on both sides, you could expect a potential pitching duel in Texas, but only one has truly dominated this season.

That's Arizona's Zac Gallen, who is on the shortlist for the NL Cy Young at this point in the season behind a 2.48 SIERA, 36.2% strikeout rate, and tiny 0.48 HR/9 rate. He's been nothing short of dominant, including in outings with tougher offenses like the Dodgers and Padres.

While Jon Gray hasn't been awful for the Rangers, he's certainly outperformed his stuff to this point. His 3.91 ERA is hiding an ugly 5.67 SIERA, and Gray's 16.0% strikeout rate is significantly down from his 2022 mark (25.7%). Decreased velocity might be the culprit there.

Both of these offenses hold a wRC+ above 100 against righties, so a bad day on the mound could go south in a hurry. At this point, Gray appears to be a much likelier candidate than Gallen.

Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers

Under 7.5 (-104)

In one of the oddities this sport can provide, the massive payroll of the Dodgers didn't seem to budget a squad that could hit left-handed pitching.

L.A. has a .626 OPS against southpaws this season, which is the fourth-worst mark in baseball. I'm not sure the market has totally caught up to this ineptitude, and if you're expecting regression from the small month-long sample, there's another obstacle tonight.

It's Philadelphia's Matt Strahm. Strahm has surprised in 2023 with an excellent 2.96 SIERA and 36.0% strikeout rate. Despite the former reliever barely breaking camp in the rotation, he's taken his opportunity and run with it.

This under is my favorite way to target the Dodgers' struggles because they'll counter with Julio Urias. Urias is putting together another solid-but-not-spectacular campaign behind a 3.72 SIERA, and the Phillies (101 wRC+ versus lefties) aren't this bone-chilling matchup for him, either.

Despite receiving just 32% of tickets, 72% of the money is on the under in this one. We'll follow the money behind two solid hurlers.