FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Sunday 4/30/23
Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process. Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!
Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
| Team | Opp SP | Opp | O/U | Moneyline | Implied Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Sonny Gray | MIN | 7.5 | 172 | 3.19 |
| WSH | Johan Oviedo | PIT | 8 | 120 | 3.74 |
| CHW | Drew Rasmussen | TB | 9 | 164 | 3.88 |
| TEX | Nestor Cortes | NYY | 8 | 104 | 3.89 |
| DET | Kyle Bradish | BAL | 8.5 | 130 | 3.9 |
| CLE | Chris Sale | BOS | 8.5 | 106 | 4.11 |
| NYY | Martin Perez | TEX | 8 | -122 | 4.11 |
| SEA | Chris Bassitt | TOR | 9.5 | 154 | 4.16 |
| PIT | Josiah Gray | WSH | 8 | -142 | 4.26 |
| MIN | Brady Singer | KC | 7.5 | -205 | 4.31 |
| LAA | Colin Rea | MIL | 9 | 108 | 4.33 |
| BOS | Logan Allen | CLE | 8.5 | -124 | 4.39 |
| BAL | Spencer Turnbull | DET | 8.5 | -154 | 4.6 |
| MIL | Jose Suarez | LAA | 9 | -126 | 4.67 |
| TB | Mike Clevinger | CHW | 9 | -196 | 5.12 |
| TOR | Marco Gonzales | SEA | 9.5 | -184 | 5.34 |
Pitchers
Sonny Gray ($11,500)
At his highest salary this season, Gray will make his sixth start this season against a Kansas City Royals' lineup with a .289 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a 24.4% K-rate versus right-handed pitching.
In Gray's most recent 29.0 innings, the 33-year old has been in exceptional form, recording a 3.63 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating, a 29.3% K-rate, and a 13.1% swinging strike rate while his metrics in his past 29 starts display similar production with a 3.65 xFIP and a 25.0% K-rate.
When considering his favorable matchup and his current or long-term form, there are plenty of reasons to believe Gray will meet or surpass his expectations including today's top fantasy projection at 33.6 FanDuel points and a strikeout prediction standing at 6.15.
Nestor Cortes ($9,700)
After a 7.6% decrease to his lowest salary point, New York's 28-year old southpaw offers sneaky value with a 3.0 rating and a 29.1 fantasy projection versus a Texas Rangers' offense with a 22.9% K-rate and a .327 on-base percentage against left-handers this season.
While some may be concerned with Cortes' recent 4.92 xFIP in his last five starts, the Yankees' starter should see positive regression towards his metrics when observing his 2.79 expected Earned Run Average. 72.9% left on-base average (career 79.4%), and an unlucky .289 batting average on balls in play (career .268).
In an underrated matchup against six hitters with K-rates between 24.4% and 31.0% and contact percentages under 79.4%, Cortes' projection will likely hinge on his ability to reach his 5.33 strikeout prediction in these particular opportunities.
Stacks
Despite averaging two runs in the first two games of this series, the Blue Jays are ranked first among Sunday's main slate with a 5.34 run expectation against Seattle's left-hander Marco Gonzales.
Through four starts this season, Gonzales has produced a misleading 3.32 Earned Run Average when comparing this metric to his 4.03 expected Earned Run Average and a 4.90 xFIP in 21.2 innings.
To best counter his heavy ground-ball tendencies (40.3% career rate) and struggles versus right-handed bats (4.66 xFIP, .323 wOBA), Toronto stacks should feature their best fly-ball power hitters including George Springer (10.6% barrel rate, .261 expected average), Matt Chapman (33.3% barrel rate, .342 expected average), and Danny Jansen (15.8% barrel rate) while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.333 expected average, 13.8% barrel rate), Alejandro Kirk (10.9% barrel rate), and Bo Bichette (.343 expected average, 9.3% barrel rate) can also be mixed in.
In a matchup versus Jose Suarez, the Brewers are an underrated stack due to the left-hander's concerning 6.68 xFIP and splits against right-handed hitters (4.75 xFIP, .346 wOBA).
With these weaknesses in mind, Michael Brosseau (8.3% barrel rate), Willy Adames (13.0% barrel rate, .339 expected wOBA), William Contreras (8.3% barrel rate, .284 expected average),and Brian Anderson (15.4% barrel rate, .353 expected wOBA) are premier options while Luke Voit (career 14.0% barrel rate) and Joey Wiemer (8.3% current barrel rate) are value options in the bottom half of Milwaukee's lineup.
Colin Rea will make his 31st career start versus an Angels' team with an undervalued 4.33 expected run total and .333 wOBA against right-handers.
In his return to the Major Leagues, the 32-year old has struggled through 15.2 innings, accounting for an ugly 5.46 xFIP, a 11.1% walk rate, and a 6.4% swinging strike percentage.
With most of troubles occurring against right-handed hitting (.342 wOBA, 4.83 xFIP), ideal Los Angeles combinations should include Mike Trout (17.8% barrel rate, .298 expected average), Hunter Renfroe (8.6% barrel rate), Brandon Drury (9.7% barrel rate), and Matt Thaiss (.317 expected average, 17.6% barrel rate) while Shohei Ohtani (.293 expected average, 13.4% barrel rate) can also be considered with his recent form.
