MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 4/27/23: Will the Orioles Keep Trampling the Tigers?

Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.

Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher or team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.

Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers

Orioles -1.5 (+116)

I'd imagine this line balloons throughout the day, so move quickly.

If Detroit's offense can't get it going, this one could be a rout quickly. They have just a 67 wRC+ against right-handed pitching (second-worst in MLB), so it's not like Kyle Gibson is expected to be under assault in this one.

As Baltimore's Opening Day starter, Gibson has been the rock at the top of the O's rotation they'd have hoped for. He's sporting a 4.43 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), which likely won't get much better with his usual low strikeout rate (20.3%). He's also done a nice job limiting hard contact (38.1% rate allowed).

We know the Orioles' offense slugs left-handed pitching to this point. Their 123 wRC+ against lefties is sixth-best in baseball, and Joey Wentz (5.39 SIERA) hasn't been much better than his 7.56 ERA would indicate.

Though Gibson's not the dominant type of ace to blank any offense at will, Baltimore should have significant advantages when pitching and batting in this one.

Washington Nationals at New York Mets

Over 8.5 (-106)

As someone who backed the under in Joey Lucchesi's last start, I feel qualified to take the over with skepticism of him now.

That first start was facing the Giants (75 wRC+ versus lefties), and now he'll graduate to the Nationals (110 wRC+ versus lefties). That sounds weird given the overall quality of the two teams, but it's true in this split. After all, Lucchesi hasn't held an xFIP below 4.30 in back-to-back years with Triple-A Syracuse.

On the other side, Washington's Trevor Williams is due for a stinker, too. His 3.38 ERA is hiding an uglier 4.87 SIERA, and his strikeout rate (15.3%) is incredibly low. He's ceded 1.27 HR/9, too. He's set to face his former team, and the Mets' competence against right-handed pitching hasn't vanished in 2023 (103 wRC+).

By xFIP, these two clubs also have bottom-15 bullpens, so if either one of these starters gets rocked, we won't need many more runs off the unreliable relief pitchers set to replace them.

New York Yankees at Texas Rangers

Yankees -1.5 (+102)

The Yankees haven't hit lefties this season, but I'm projecting that slightly turns around against Texas' Andrew Heaney.

Heaney's an odd case as a pitcher with seven straight seasons below a 4.10 SIERA, but he's always been a launching pad for easy offense with homers. He's surrendered at least 1.20 HR/9 every season in that period, and though it's a lower rate to begin 2023 (0.96), the formula is still there. Heaney's flyball rate is above the league average at 46.0%.

Hello, Aaron Judge.

Unfortunately for the Rangers, even if Heaney provides a solid outing, they'll still have to deal with Gerrit Cole here. Cole is on the shortlist for best pitcher in baseball thus far, sporting a 0.74 ERA (supported by a 3.54 SIERA), a 29.3% strikeout rate, and surrendering a barrel on just 3.9% of balls in play.

Plus, as this runline is decided late in the game, New York's 'pen (3.84 xFIP) has greatly outperformed Texas' (4.54 xFIP). I'd take this runline up to -120, so the plus chicken is a sweet deal.