MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 4/27/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Pete Alonso To Hit a Home Run (+400)
This home run prop is rather straightforward for a few different reasons, so let's jump in.
First off, the +400 number for Pete Alonso's home run prop is way too high. Alonso has the second-most (10) home runs in the MLB to start the season, is one of the best power hitters in the league, and it's at +400? Sign me up 10 times out of 10.
Speaking of Alonso's power, he's got plenty of it with a .231 ISO, 103 wRC+, .316 wOBA, 41.3% fly-ball rate, and 26.3% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers this season. He's been showing this type of power for multiple years now, and we know the potential he has on a nightly basis.
He will be up against Trevor Williams, who allowed a .345 SLG, 0.96 HR/9, 45.9% fly-ball rate, and 9.8% HR/FB ratio last season versus right-handed hitters. The league average for HR/FB ratio last season versus right-handed hitters was 11.8%, along with a 37.0% fly-ball rate. Williams allowed more fly balls but fewer of them went for home runs. That rate isn't sustainable, and he is going to see some regression.
As usual, I have to add on Alonso To Record an RBI (+100).
Adley Rutschman To Record 2+ Total Bases (+115)
The Baltimore Orioles have a solid 4.28 implied run total tonight and can easily exceed that versus the Detroit Tigers.
Joey Wentz will be on the mound for the Tigers, and he's a pitcher with just 49.1 innings pitched at the MLB level between this season and last. Over that time, he has allowed a .404 SLG, .315 wOBA, 5.14 xFIP, 0.98 HR/9, 10.6% walk rate, and 52.3% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters. There's nothing about his profile that indicates he is a pitcher we need to worry about.
We turn to Adley Rutschman, who hits near the top of the lineup for the Orioles and will have plenty of chances to get some hits. He comes in with a 141 wRC+, .373 wOBA, 39.3% fly-ball rate, low 14.3% strikeout rate, and .088 ISO versus left-handed pitchers this season.
Is he lacking power? Yes. But that doesn't really matter since he is so disciplined at the plate and is not wasting chances, giving himself the opportunity to put the ball in play and rack up hits.
