MLB Betting Guide for Wednesday 4/26/23: Can the Athletics Pummel Another Lefty?
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher or team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
Under 8.0 (-120)
The Braves' offense is red hot, but I'm expecting both offenses in this one to be cooled tonight.
Atlanta draws Sandy Alcantara, whose 5.74 ERA is a bit unlucky so far. His skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is much lower at 4.32. There are peripheral traits to suggest the 2022 NL Cy Young winner still has his fastball both literally and figuratively, including a low hard-hit rate allowed (37.3%) and excellent swinging-strike rate (13.7%).
Curiously, the Braves have been much better and have done the bulk of their damage against lefties. They've got just a 101 wRC+ against righties with an elevated 25.6% strikeout rate.
Of course, the real appeal here is Miami's dreadful offense. Their 83 wRC+ against righties is the seventh-worst in baseball, and Bryce Elder (3.74 SIERA) has shown enough to believe he can vanquish their poor lineup.
Elder's elevated hard-hit rate allowed (53.1%) is the lone frightening metric between these two, so the under is a pretty solid bet if the fear is the Marlins' sticks firing on all cylinders.
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
Over 9.5 (-104)
With Oakland's underrated offense against lefties, this bet could be just Athletics Over 3.5 Runs (-114) on FanDuel Sportsbook, but the over works if an available book doesn't offer that.
Shockingly, the A's have the eighth-best OPS in baseball against lefties (.780), so that team total is disrespectful against Patrick Sandoval. Though Sandoval had shown flashes in three prior seasons, he's stumbled his way to a 5.43 SIERA and a paltry 17.6% strikeout rate to begin 2023.
Of course, the Angels' star-studded attack should get their licks in, too. This is their worse split against righty Luis Medina, but it might not matter; the career minor-leaguer has a 5.72 xFIP in AAA this year entering a spot start tonight.
Both of these bullpens are bottom-seven units in terms of xFIP, too. We should see plenty of runs in Orange County tonight.
St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
Cardinals ML (-104)
How down bad am I at the moment when it comes to sports betting? Needing one out to cash the Cardinals' moneyline on Tuesday, Blake Sabol has a .269 OBP yet, somehow, slugged a walk-off homer.
Still, I will turn back to the Redbirds when it's a new day on the mound, and I'll target the Giants with a lefty whenever possible. San Francisco's .587 OPS against lefties is the worst in baseball so far, and it's come with MLB's second-highest strikeout rate in the split (31.0%).
St. Louis' Steven Matz is a guy that I'd want to buy against anyone. His 6.55 ERA is much higher than a 4.15 SIERA, and Matz (24.7% strikeout rate) can exacerbate some of the Giants' swing-and-miss problems.
On the other side, San Francisco will start Anthony DeSclafani, who has been excellent to start 2023 behind a 3.10 SIERA. It's been a surprise after several down seasons, but I'm not sure he's out of the woods yet. His hard-hit rate allowed (50.7%) is huge, and he's still generating whiffs on just 9.5% of his pitches.
The Cards' offense has a .729 against righties, too. With a conceptual advantage when pitching and hitting, St. Louis should be favored tonight, but there's definitely first-glance, ERA-related bias baked into this line.
