MLB Betting Guide for Monday 4/24/23: How Should We Handle the Scuffling Hurlers in Milwaukee?
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher or team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Texas Rangers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Under 8.5 (-115)
Nathan Eovaldi and Nick Lodolo are both pitching better than their ERAs suggest. That's a great start for an under, alhough Great American Smallpark could also be a factor tonight.
Eovaldi's 5.40 ERA is unlucky by any measure -- specifically by his 3.06 xFIP and 3.38 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). He's got the better chance of these two for a direct turnaround considering his matchup with the Reds, an offense that sports a paltry .656 OPS against right-handed pitching (fifth-worst in MLB).
As for Lodolo, he's arguably been more dominant. Lodolo's 3.30 SIERA is just slightly lower, but he's also possessed a tremendous 29.8% strikeout rate along the way. Texas has a higher .667 OPS against southpaws this year, but that's still no mark to avoid.
In addition to some cooler weather in Cincinnati, these pitchers might provide a slight respite from the usual offensive onslaught at this venue.
Detroit Tigers at Milwaukee Brewers
Under 8.5 (-104)
At the same 8.5 number, these offenses totally stink, so we'll forgive some more flaws from the pitching profiles in Milwaukee.
We've targeted the Tigers, who have the sixth-highest rate of hitting the under this season, plenty already. Their 71 wRC+ versus right-handers this season is third-worst in baseball, so while they'll dodge Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta tonight, Colin Rea can do his best impression. Rea's 4.63 SIERA isn't awful.
As for the Brew Crew, they'll be tasked with lefty Matt Boyd. Boyd's 5.75 SIERA is much worse than Rea's, but he's done a great job of correcting his worst issue from previous seasons, posting a minuscule 23.6% hard-hit rate allowed. His velocity has been down to start the year, but he'll be in better shape if the soft contact sticks.
Amazingly, Milwaukee's wRC+ against lefties (64) makes them the inferior offense in this split. For that reason, we can bet the under on an elevated total.
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
Over 10.0 (-102)
With unders in our first two contests, we might have to stay up late for some high-scoring action.
Oakland and Los Angeles should provide just that. The Angels should lead the way here behind their 130 wRC+ against left-handed pitching (third-best in baseball). They'll draw A's struggling lefty Ken Waldichuk, who has scuffled this year to the tune of a 5.35 SIERA and 3.15 HR/9. Yikes.
However, don't underestimate the Fightin' Elephants in this spot despite them having just four wins on the year. Oakland's 106 wRC+ against lefties this season is an above-average mark, and they'll draw Jose Suarez of the Angels.
Suarez's 2023 is also off to a rocky start -- if not rockier than Waldichuk's. He's got a 6.22 SIERA with a lackluster 11.1% strikeout rate, and with a higher fly-ball rate than Waldichuk's (43.8%), the dingers should plague him, too, before long.
If you like betting with the pros, this is the best spot today to do so. Despite receiving just 48% of the tickets, this over has 75% of the total handle.
