FanDuel Pitching Primer: Tuesday 4/18/23
Nailing the pitcher slot is the first step to having success in MLB DFS on FanDuel.
While it's possible to cash if you get a bad outing from a starter, it's markedly easier to do so when you get a good or excellent showing from your pitcher, and it's darn near impossible to take down a contest without a big score from your hurler.
Weighing the importance of a pitcher's skill, salary, matchup and park factors is the game within the game in MLB DFS. This piece is your home for a breakdown of the top pitching options on today's slate.
All betting references come from the MLB lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Top of the Heap
Spencer Strider, Braves ($10,800)
Despite a matchup with the San Diego Padres, Strider is still the night's SP1 in my eyes due to his strikeout upside.
Strider owns a 40.9% strikeout rate in this season's small sample, and he has a 38.0% strikeout rate across 150 career innings. He's thrown at least 96 pitches in each of his three outings, so the workload is good, too. Strider's strikeout prop is at 8.5 -- 2.0 higher than anyone else's tonight -- although there's a +108 price on the over.
The Padres have some big names, but they haven't been all that productive as an offense to start the campaign, ranking 20th in wOBA (.312) and right around the league average in strikeout rate (22.8%). San Diego's 3.57 implied total is the slate's second-lowest.
Our model projects Strider for 40.3 FanDuel points and for a slate-leading 7.6 punchouts.
Logan Gilbert, Mariners ($9,700)
Gilbert has been awfully impressive thus far in 2023 and may be in the midst of a breakout season.
His career strikeout rate was at 23.8% prior to this campaign, and he's striking out 29.9% of hitters through his first 16 2/3 frames of the year. His 23.3% hard-hit rate allowed is another career-best mark -- by a mile -- as is his 3.08 SIERA. He also got up to a season-high 94 pitches in his last start, so Gilbert checks a ton of boxes.
He's at home today versus the Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee isn't an easy matchup, but the Brew Crew's 3.61 implied total is a number we can feel good about.
For me, Gilbert has the edge over some other quality options and sits as the slate's SP2.
Tournament Option
Marcus Stroman, Cubs ($11,000)
With the night's top salary, Stroman isn't going to be popular, and it makes sense. But he has a lovely matchup at the Oakland Athletics and is worth throwing into some tourney lineups.
Oakland is who we thought they'd be, sitting 27th in wOBA (.300) with a strikeout rate (23.6%) that's slightly worse than the league average. The Athletics sport the slate's worst implied total (3.48).
Outside of a jump in walk rate (11.3%), Stroman's 2023 numbers look really nice as he boasts a 3.38 SIERA, 28.2% strikeout rate, 11.1% swinging-strike rate and 69.0% ground-ball rate.
Stroman can come through in this matchup, and early draft percentage projections around the industry have him going completely overlooked.
Low-Salary Plays
Chris Sale, Red Sox ($7,700)
Sale and Blake Snell ($7,400) are viable values who are far from trustworthy. Between the two, give me Sale.
The Boston Red Sox southpaw has an 11.25 ERA and has been tagged for five jacks in 12 innings. That's why his salary is where it is. But it's not all doom and gloom as he's recorded a 29.7% strikeout rate and 12.6% swinging-strike rate. With a SIERA of 3.83, Sale hasn't been nearly as bad as his results indicate.
He can keep the punchouts flowing today in a date with the Minnesota Twins, an offense that has the fourth-highest strikeout rate (26.1%) with the third-worst wOBA (.294). Sale's strikeout prop is at 5.5 with -170 juice on the over.
While we shouldn't get too carried away -- Minnesota has a 4.52 implied total -- Sale is intriguing at this salary, especially if you're trying to load up on top-end bats.
Quick Mound Visits:
Nathan Eovaldi ($9,100): Best of the rest for me. A .444 BABIP is killing him. Underlying skills look good, including a 27.9% strikeout rate and 3.04 SIERA. Matchup against Kansas City is a nice one.
Clayton Kershaw ($10,000): Our model is a bigger fan of Kershaw today than I am. Difficult matchup with the Mets. Strikeout prop is only 5.5 (-116 on the over). Would rather use Gilbert in the same salary range.
Jordan Montgomery ($9,500): Just an 8.7% swinging-strike rate so far in 2023. His strikeout prop is only 4.5 (-132 on the over). Tough to get behind with Gilbert's salary only $200 more.
Blake Snell ($7,400): Can be lights out if he's locked in but has struggled in 2023. Walk rate is 15.2%. Hasn't worked more than five innings despite going 88-plus pitches in all three starts. On top of all that, he has a rough matchup with the Braves.
