MLB Betting Guide for Monday 4/17/23: Can the Athletics Snag a Victory at Home?

Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.

Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher or team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.

Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals

Under 7.5 (-105)

I'm not sure why this under is contrarian. It's getting just 29% of bets with at least 87% of tickets toward the Rangers' spread and moneyline. If Jacob deGrom is going to dominate the Royals, why wouldn't the game also fall under its total?

Let's be clear, though. deGrom is very likely to have his way with Kansas City's lineup. The Royals' 69 wRC+ against righties is the second-worst in baseball thus far, and deGrom has been himself when looking at his skill-interactive ERA (1.93 SIERA) and strikeout rate (40.1%).

However, rather than line up on the Rangers' side, Jordan Lyles could be a bit of insurance against a Texas offense that's sputtering. Lyles' 4.55 SIERA is better than I'd have guessed, and he's done a modest job of limiting hard-hit balls (36.5% rate allowed).

Lyles gave up four runs in 6.1 innings last week in Arlington, but that alone wouldn't burst this number. This is my favorite contrarian way to back the solid deGrom outing that bettors are expecting in droves without having to bank on the Rangers' offense.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies

Over 12.0 (-105)

Though it was a bit fortunate, the over in Kyle Freeland's last start hit, and we'll go back to the well here.

Freeland's 0.96 ERA is mostly fool's gold. It's supported by an astronomically high 5.27 SIERA because Freeland has been surrendering a ton of fly balls (50.1% rate) and isn't getting any whiffs (7.0% swinging-strike rate). His hard-hit rate (35.6%) is fine but still leaving plenty to chance at Coors Field.

Pittsburgh's Rich Hill could face many of the same issues. He's coughed up 3.60 HR/9 thus far behind his 50.9% fly-ball rate, and his swinging-strike rate (4.9%) is even lower.

The Pirates and Rockies both hold a .686 OPS or lower against lefties, which might be why 65% of bettors have flocked to this under. However, Freeland and Hill's peripherals are in line to be torched by even the worst offenses in baseball. That's likely why 68% of the handle is on the over. We'll follow the money.

Chicago Cubs at Oakland Athletics

Athletics ML (+116)

Even as losers of over 100 games, the lowly Oakland Athletics will have their nights. This could be one of them.

Oakland's -63 run differential is the worst in baseball, but they'll send Kyle Muller to the mound tonight with a chance to win. Muller's 4.80 SIERA isn't horrible, and the sinkerballer has turned in his usual worm-killing 55.2% rate so far. The opposing Cubs have just a 28.9% hard-hit rate against lefties, so the lack of loft could be detrimental.

Chicago's Hayden Wesneski is a blowup start waiting to happen -- even against the A's. Wesneski's 6.94 SIERA and 17.4% walk rate are both the highest of any terrible pitcher we've discussed thus far, so his 7.50 ERA isn't exactly unfair.

Importantly, the Athletics have a 95 wRC+ against righties so far, which isn't even a bottom-10 mark in baseball. They are certainly a capable attack to chase a struggling righty as they did to Baltimore's Kyle Bradish last week.

This moneyline is incredibly short for the worst team in baseball; I'll fade the public and take it.