3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 4/5/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Randy Arozarena To Hit a Home Run (+350)
Isaac Paredes To Hit a Home Run (+440)
The Tampa Bay Rays are on fire and look to continue that today versus Patrick Corbin.
If there is one thing that remains a constant in baseball, it's that you target Corbin when he is on the mound. This is by no means a shocking development; the Rays rocking a slate-high 4.84 implied run total today. Corbin is simply not a good pitcher anymore, and he offers upside to every opposing lineup.
Last season, Corbin allowed a .388 wOBA, .526 SLG, 4.27 xFIP, 1.79 HR/9, 41.1% hard-contact rate, and 35.0% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters. Combine those bad numbers with very warm weather and wind blowing out towards left field, and it creates an awesome hitting environment for the Rays.
Both Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes are in great spots to hit home runs today, and I can't decide between them, so I'm rolling with both.
Last season, Arozarena had a 164 wRC+, .391 wOBA, .242 ISO, 47.4% fly-ball rate, and 35.8% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. This is basically the ideal profile to match against Corbin, putting Arozarena in an elite spot. Of course, I'm adding Arozarena To Record an RBI (-120).
For Paredes last season, he had a 142 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .286 ISO, 43.4% fly-ball rate, and 23.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. That hard-contact rate is a bit lower than I'd like to see, but the raw power is still there for Paredes, and the matchup is too good to pass up. Add on Paredes To Record an RBI (+105).
Yordan Alvarez To Record an RBI (+110)
The Houston Astros have a 4.49 implied run total today and should be able to hit that to snap their slight losing streak.
The Detroit Tigers will have Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound today, and the hitters from the Astros are in a spot to get their offense going. Last season, ERod allowed a .393 wOBA, .507 SLG, 4.80 xFIP, 1.62 HR/9, and a 39.6% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters. Those are some rough numbers to be sporting with Houston's power on the other side.
That leads us to Yordan Alvarez, who is one of the true elite hitters in the MLB and is a threat for a big game in any matchup. Last season, Alvarez had a .424 wOBA, 183 wRC+, .265 ISO, 36.7% fly-ball rate, and 40.6% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. There's not a bad thing you can say about Alvarez, and with him hitting in the middle of the Astros' lineup, he will have plenty of chances at the plate to drive in a run.
