MLB Betting Guide for Wednesday 4/5/23: How Should We Bet the Battles of Aces in Chicago?
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher or team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Which MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees
Under 6.5 (-110)
We've got aces wild on Wednesday's slate, which does impact betting in a massive way.
There's a pair in New York to start. Aaron Nola and the Phillies are completing their series with the Yankees, but to win, they'll have to plate runs off Gerrit Cole. It won't be an easy task since Cole was in top form to kick off the year against San Francisco. He compiled a whopping 50.0% strikeout rate over six innings, resulting in a sparkling 1.74 SIERA to start the new campaign.
As for Nola, he was pitching well until his fourth inning got out of hand. Still, with a sub-3.30 SIERA in three consecutive seasons, better days are ahead for the Phillies' ace. It should help him today that the potent Yankees lineup is still whiffing a ton; their 27.5% strikeout rate versus righties is the third-highest mark early in the season.
There's dreary weather with winds blowing in at Yankees Stadium today, too. We likely need just one gem from these two to cash the under a modest run total, but both absolutely could deal.
Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros
Astros -1.5 (-118)
The Astros have had their hands full with the lowly Tigers this series, but Wednesday might be the day it normalizes.
Cristian Javier will take the bump for Houston, and swing-and-miss pitchers from both sides should give Detroit all kinds of issues this season. Their 28.7% strikeout rate is already third-worst in baseball even including the solid efforts that have earned two wins in this series.
Javier's first start wasn't ideal, coughing up three earned runs over five innings. However, he did amass his usual gaudy 23.2% swinging-strike rate, though. The nastiness was on full display.
His offense gets a date with Eduardo Rodriguez, who gave up three runs in 5.1 innings himself on Opening Day. The issue is that today he draws a Houston lineup that had a 124 wRC+ against southpaws a year ago (second-best in MLB).
Expect a bounce-back effort from the champs today.
San Francisco Giants at Chicago White Sox
Under 7.5 (-115)
This is another game with rainy weather and a massive crosswind, but we get an extra run between these two aces.
It's likely because Logan Webb didn't exactly cruise on Opening Day. He surrendered four runs in six innings -- albeit to the aforementioned Yankees lineup. Webb hasn't really been a swing-and-miss generator in his career, though, so it was interesting that he fanned 12 batters in his first start of the year behind a 16.0% swinging-strike rate.
On the other side, Dylan Cease looked like the guy who contended for a Cy Young Award last season. Chicago's right-hander struck out 10 Astros in 6.1 innings, resulting in a 1.25 SIERA to start the year that's actually somehow lower than his standard ERA (1.42).
The extra run here might be due to the park factor, but this looks like another under sharps are targeting. Despite getting just 50% of bets, 80% of the handle is on this side.
