MLB Betting Guide for Monday 4/3/23: Can the Cardinals Pull an Impressive Upset?
Betting on baseball can be a grind that reaps an enormous reward.
Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know an individual pitcher or team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.
Using our model as a guide, which MLB lines are most appealing today from FanDuel Sportsbook?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals
Over 8.0 (-114) - 3 Stars
Though the Royals' offense has put forth just three runs in four games, our model likes the over in their contest tonight.
That's likely because K.C. will draw Jose Berrios in lieu of the solid righties Minnesota threw at them. While the former Twin has had some moments for the Blue Jays, he left 2022 with a 4.13 SIERA, and the peripherals were even more concerning, including a career-low 19.4% strikeout rate for a qualifying season and a massive 43.4% hard-hit rate.
The home squad might actually have the better hurler with Brady Singer. His 3.40 SIERA and 24.2% strikeout rate last season were career-best marks. The issue is Kansas City is up against a team that crushed righties a year ago (117 wRC+; second in MLB), and their 106 wRC+ to start the year is strong. Plus, the Royals' bullpen is one of the worst in the league.
Our model expects at least eight runs in this game 67.7% of the time, so even with the possibility of a push, these 53.3% implied odds aren't short enough.
Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals ML (+110) - 2 Stars
This is an exciting clash between two teams that could win the National League, and the pitching matchup is peculiar.
Peripheral stats may never look super kindly on St. Louis' sinker-baller Jake Woodford, whose 2.23 ERA was rewarded with a targetable 4.34 SIERA a year ago. Still, his high rate of ground balls (52.0%) and ability to limit hard contact (36.2% hard-hit rate in 2022) can make him a tricky puzzle for an Atlanta squad that had the highest hard-hit rate against righties a year ago (34.4%).
Conversely, we're waiting to see if the ageless wonder can keep it going for the Bravos. 39-year-old Charlie Morton struggled to begin last year with a 5.67 xFIP through the month of April, but he turned it around for a 3.60 xFIP overall. He's not overly reliant on velocity, but can the stuff last forever? The Cards had a 114 wRC+ against righties last year, so if he's not sharp, things could get ugly quickly.
numberFire actually favors the Cardinals in this matchup, projecting them to win 54.7% of the time as an underdog.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers
Over 8.0 (-110) - 3 Stars
Last night's pitching duel in Texas was the only game these clubs have played that's produced an "under", so we're off to a good start with this recommendation.
These two pitchers shouldn't help reverse that direction. For Baltimore, Kyle Bradish held a mediocre 4.15 SIERA a year ago with a hard-hit rate (40.6%) higher than you'd hope. On the Rangers' side, Jon Gray recorded a 3.96 ERA and a career-best 3.56 SIERA, but he's never held a traditional ERA below 4.00 in back-to-back seasons.
These clubs sit second and third in a limited sample so far in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and Texas' bullpen is one of the worst in baseball. Things are not trending in the right direction for an under this year, and numberFire's model -- which bakes in a historical element -- isn't seeing a ton to point it away from that.
Overall, it's expecting at least eight runs in this contest 65.6% of the time, and these standard 52.5 % implied odds create an enormous amount of value. It's also worth noting the model likely is factoring in a closed roof with an expected chance of precipitation in the area tonight.
