Martinez changed his swing prior to the 2014 season, with the most notable effect being the ability to drive pitches the other way. You can see his distribution of 2014 home runs to see an almost-even balance between left, center, and right fields.
One stat to watch will be his HR/FB%. In 2014, he smashed a whopping 19.5% of fly balls out of the park, which is a figure only the best of power hitters can consistently match. It is safe to assume that regression will pull that rate down, but I wouldn’t be surprised if his massive power actually translates to a HR/FB% of that magnitude.
In addition, Martinez had a fly ball percentage of 36.8%, which is okay, but on the lower side of where you want a slugger to be. He can’t give up too many more fly balls and expect the same home run production.
If Martinez bats fifth in the Tigers’ lineup again, he should improve upon his 76 RBI. He will certainly hit behind on-base enthusiasts Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, and will benefit even more if Ian Kinsler is bumped to second in the order, as opposed to Jose Iglesias.
 It also remains to be seen where newcomer Yoenis Cespedes will hit.
Batting Average
Martinez managed a batting average of .315 last year, but it was driven by a .389 BABIP. With the swing adjustments, Martinez is hitting the ball hard, so it’s fair to expect an above-average number, albeit below .389.
If he stick with his (high) strikeout rate of 26.3% and assign him a .340 BABIP, his batting average would fall all the way to .251. Of course, the MLB aggregate batting average was .251, so he won’t hurt you too much in Roto leagues. In points leagues that deduct for strikeouts, Martinez obviously loses some value.
Projections
| Projections | Plate Appearances | Home Runs | Runs | RBI | K% | BABIP | Batting Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| numberFire | 522 | 21 | 61 | 72 | - | - | 0.270 |
| Steamer | 581 | 22 | 70 | 79 | 23.9 | 0.327 | 0.273 |
| ZiPS | 527 | 21 | 57 | 90 | 23.9 | 0.339 | 0.283 |
All three projections are generally fond of Martinez this year. Steamer and ZiPS expect Martinez to lower his strikeout rate this year, which would help his batting average. Also, ZiPS' 90 RBI projection is a hint at the upside Martinez has with this Detroit lineup.
If I can get Martinez as my third outfielder, I'm happy. He has 30-homer upside in a stacked lineup, and his draft position is still lower than his expected performance this season. Scoop him up and reap the benefits.