MLB NLCS Betting Guide: Padres at Phillies, Game 3
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 7.5 Runs (-105)
Bryce Harper to Record 2+ Total Bases (+130)
Juan Soto to Record 2+ Total Bases (+135)
Suarez struggled for a lot of 2022, posting a 4.11 SIERA and 19.5% strikeout rate. Home-road splits need to be taken with a grain of salt, but Suarez was much worse at home, allowing a .331 wOBA with a 17.8% strikeout rate in Philly, compared to a .300 wOBA and 20.8% strikeout rate in his travels. He'll face some tough righties today as the San Diego Padres will have Manny Machado, Brandon Drury, Wil Myers and Ha-Seong Kim in four of the first six spots of their lineup if they use the same lineup they deployed the last time they took on a southpaw.
Musgrove is a good pitcher, but after an electric first half of the campaign, he tailed off in the second half. He permitted a .329 wOBA and 1.52 jacks per nine in the second half -- numbers that are a big drop from his first-half clips of a .263 wOBA and 0.78 homers per nine. With this one at Citizens Bank Park, we could see the Philadelphia Phillies pop a couple dingers.
Speaking of that, I'm taking Bryce Harper to record 2+ total bases (+130). Harper is red-hot, totaling a .576 wOBA and 60.0% fly-ball rate this postseason. I don't hate Harper to homer (+360).
I also like Juan Soto to rack up 2+ total bases (+135). The +135 price is a nice clip for one of the game's best bats, and it's likely as high as it is due to the lefty-lefty matchup with Suarez. While Suarez is tough on left-handed hitters, there's no guarantee he sticks around all that long in this game -- he lasted 3 1/3 frames in his lone start this postseason -- and Soto more than held his own in this split in 2022, putting up a .360 wOBA.
Both of those props correlate well with the over (-105). Our model projects this game to go over the 7.5-run total 55.5% of the time.