MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 10/18/22
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Guardians Moneyline (+152)
Anthony Rizzo to Record an RBI (+160)
Amed Rosario to Score a Run (+160)
With Game 5 getting pushed back to Tuesday afternoon (4:07 p.m. EST), Nestor Cortes is now starting for the New York Yankees while it appears that Aaron Civale will still get the nod for the Cleveland Guardians.
Regardless of who starts, this could quickly turn into a battle of the bullpens as neither starter will have much of a leash. Admittedly, that makes it tricky to write up betting picks for this game, especially when it comes to props -- since it'll be hard to predict hitter-pitcher matchups outside of the first couple of innings.
According to the betting market, Game 5 getting pushed back has benefitted the Yankees. New York was a -152 favorite on Monday when Jameson Taillon was scheduled to start, but the Yanks are a -180 favorite today. However, I'm still interested in taking Cleveland to win (+152). Our model agrees. We give the Guardians a 41.4% chance to win -- up a few ticks from their 39.7% implied odds at the +152 moneyline.
As I laid out yesterday, Civale has been really darn good lately, pitching to a 3.01 xFIP, 27.5% strikeout rate and 4.2% walk rate in the second half. Across his past 10 starts, he has allowed more than two earned runs only one time, and the Guardians' bullpen is excellent, posting the second-best in reliever xFIP (3.18) in the second half with the second-highest strikeout rate (28.1%) in the split. Cleveland might turn to its bullpen at the first sign of trouble, and they have a stable of relievers -- and possibly Shane Bieber on short rest -- who can get the job done.
For props, I'm on Anthony Rizzo to record an RBI (+160). Civale gave up a 37.3% hard-hit rate and 41.9% fly-ball rate to left-handers, and Rizzo is likely to be slotted third, right behind Gleyber Torres and Aaron Judge -- a pretty nice spot for RBI chances. And if Rizzo faces lefties later in the game, that's not an issue as he mashed his way to a .383 wOBA in lefty-lefty matchups.
I also like Amed Rosario to score a run (+160). When Cleveland saw Cortes in Game 2, Rosario hit second -- directly in front of Jose Ramirez, Oscar Gonzalez and Josh Naylor. That's a good place to be for run-scoring potential, and Rosario was solid versus lefties this year, putting up a .344 wOBA in the split.
Phillies Moneyline (+108)
Under 7.0 (-122)
Zach Wheeler Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)
The Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres open their NLCS tonight at Petco Park, and the pitching matchup is a great one. The Padres are giving the ball to Yu Darvish while the Phillies turn to Zack Wheeler.
Wheeler posted a 3.19 SIERA in 2022 and punched out 26.9% of hitters. He dazzled over his last three regular-season starts, permitting just one earned run in 15 frames. He's mostly kept it going in the playoffs, giving up three earned runs over two starts (12 1/3 innings). Wheeler should be able to have success against a San Diego lineup that was only 17th in wOBA (.307) versus right-handers this season.
Darvish finished the regular season with a 3.39 SIERA, 25.6% strikeout rate and 4.8% walk rate. He took his game up a notch or two in the second half, recording a 28.8% strikeout rate since the break. He has the tougher on-paper matchup of the two starters, though, as Philly was 10th in wOBA (.316) against righties this campaign. And the Phillies' bats are hot right now, plating at least six runs in four of their six postseason games.
All in all, our model likes the under and has a lean on the Phillies to win. We project the under to win out 49.4% of the time, and we have the outcome of the game as nearly a 50-50 tossup, projecting Philly to win 49.1% of the time. The Phils' implied win odds at the +108 moneyline price are 48.1%.
With props, I like the over on Wheeler's line of 4.5 strikeouts. He fanned at least five in eight of his last nine regular-season starts and in one of his two playoff outings. We project him for 5.9 punchouts in this one.