MLB Betting Guide: Friday 10/14/22
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Over 6.0 (-120)
Giancarlo Stanton to Hit a Homer (+450)
Owen Miller to Record an RBI (+300)
Shane Bieber and Nestor Cortes will take the mound this afternoon (1:07 p.m. EST) in this Game 2 matchup, and our model is backing the offenses. I can get on board with that, especially with this game in the Bronx and with the wind blowing out.
Bieber had a nice season once again, generating a 3.21 SIERA, the same mark he had in 2021. But he's a much different pitcher now. Bieber posted sparkling strikeout rates of 41.1% and 33.1% in 2020 and 2021, respectively. In 2022, his strikeout rate dropped to 25.0%, and he struck out righties only 22.5% of the time. He's obviously still a very good pitcher, but Bieber is no longer the overpowering stud he once was, especially in righty-righty matchups.
Enter Giancarlo Stanton. Despite a blah .327 wOBA this year, Stanton more or less was the same as he has been in recent seasons. He was dinged by a lowly .222 BABIP this season, which was well below his .314 career average, and his expected wOBA was a solid .351.
He amassed a .341 wOBA and 40.4% hard-hit rate against righties, and despite a second-half funk, Stanton donged in each of his final three regular-season games. I'll happily take him at +450 to go deep in this Yankee Stadium matchup with Bieber.
Cortes had a breakout campaign in 2022, piecing together a 3.48 SIERA and 26.5% strikeout rate. He was a huge piece of the Yankees' rotation, but it's fair to wonder if he's a little gassed. Cortes' 158 1/3 innings pitched this season were a new career-high by a large distance. His previous career-high was 93 frames, which he set last year. He also isn't as lethal against right-handed hitters, sporting a 24.7% strikeout rate in the split.
Owen Miller, a righty, is +300 to record an RBI, and he will likely be in a great spot in the lineup. Against lefty Shane McClanahan in the Wild Card Round, Miller hit sixth -- right behind Jose Ramirez, Oscar Gonzalez, and Josh Naylor. With how dominant Cortes is against lefties (.161 wOBA), it wouldn't surprise me if Naylor is dropped from the lineup tonight and/or if Miller is bumped up to the five-hole, which would only help his RBI chances.
In all, we project New York to win 3.99-3.73 -- good for 7.72 total runs. We give the over a four-star rating (four-unit recommendation) and expect it to cash 62.7% of the time.
Padres Moneyline (+102)
Manny Machado to Score a Run (+110)
Chris Taylor to Record an RBI (+230)
In my eyes, the San Diego Padres have the edge on the mound, and whenever the underdog has the pitching advantage, I'm intrigued.
It's never easy to trust Blake Snell. I get it. Sometimes he looks like one of the league's best. Other times he walks six in 3 1/3 innings as he did in the Wild Card Round.
Tony Gonsolin -- the Los Angeles Dodgers' starter -- is "safer," but if Snell is on, he can plow through any lineup, even one as loaded as the Dodgers' offense is. And Snell was on a lot in the second half, dealing his way to a 2.73 xFIP, 33.8% strikeout rate, and 6.4% walk rate since the break.
Snell's dud last time out snapped a streak of four straight starts in which he conceded one or zero earned runs. One of those outings came against LA, and in three total starts against the Dodgers this season, Snell surrendered just six earned runs in 14 innings while punching out 23. Five of those six earned runs came in one start.
Gonsolin finished with a dazzling 2.14 ERA. He wasn't that good, though. His SIERA was 3.74, and he struck out only 23.9% of hitters.
That puts me on Manny Machado, and I like him at +110 to score a run. We know he'll be in a meaty spot in the lineup, and he has carried over his hot second half -- a split in which he posted a .384 wOBA -- to the postseason. So far in these playoffs, Machado has mashed to the tune of a .397 wOBA.
Another prop I like is Chris Taylor to record an RBI. Taylor is healthy and expected to start this Game 3. He'll probably hit right behind the heart of the Dodgers' lineup. While Taylor's numbers were down across the board in 2022, he's long been a useful piece for L.A. In 2021, he put up a .380 wOBA against lefties, and Taylor figures to play all nine innings as it's unlikely he'll be removed if he faces a righty later in the game.
As for the moneyline bet, we give the Padres a 52.1% chance to win and rate taking them on the moneyline as a one-star wager.