MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 10/13/22
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Over 6.5 (-128)
Luis Castillo Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Eugenio Suarez 2+ Bases (+185)
Eugenio Suarez to Hit a Home Run (+560)
These two played a wild Game 1, and we should be in for another doozie this afternoon (3:37 p.m. EST).
Castillo dealt against the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card Round. But as great as he's been for the Seattle Mariners -- and he's been awesome, posting a 3.08 SIERA and 28.9% strikeout rate since arriving -- Castillo has a brutally tough matchup today against the Houston Astros' offense.
Houston finished the year with a lowly 19.5% strikeout rate, the second-lowest clip, and they were also seventh in wOBA (.324). That puts me on the under on Castillo's strikeouts.
Valdez, a southpaw, had an excellent season, pitching to a 3.14 SIERA. But he's not a high-strikeout guy, registering a 23.1% strikeout rate. He thrives by inducing a stellar 66.2% ground-ball rate. Seattle's offense isn't as potent as Houston's, but the M's are swinging it well right now, scoring 42 runs over their previous six games, including 17 over the last two. And Seattle has some quality righties in their lineup -- namely Julio Rodriguez, Mitch Haniger, Ty France, and Eugenio Suarez.
I want to hone in on Suarez. While Valdez's ground-ball ways help him limit extra-base hits, I think Suarez can do some damage.
The Seattle third baseman has really good numbers against lefties, putting up a .390 wOBA, 40.4% hard-hit rate, and 42.7% fly-ball rate in the split. I'm on him to get 2+ total bases (+185), and even though Valdez kept righties to just 0.55 homers per nine, I don't mind taking Suarez to go deep at +560. That's a big number for a guy who makes a lot of loud contact, and the short porch in left could give us a hand.
Overall, our model projects this to be a 4.14-3.41 win for Houston. That's 7.55 total runs, and we think the over wins out 61.3% of the time. It's a two-star bet (two-unit recommendation), per our numbers.