MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Wednesday 10/5/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
CHCGraham
Ashcraft
8.54.4128.2%15.8%7.9%3.6%1.5%
HOUBailey
Falter
7.54.2425.3%13.7%6.7%2.9%1.2%
CLEJon
Heasley
7.54.2124.8%13.4%6.5%2.8%1.1%
CINAdrian
Sampson
8.54.0922.9%12.0%5.7%2.4%0.9%
SEATyler
Alexander
7.54.0922.9%12.0%5.7%2.4%0.9%
BOSJosh
Fleming
8.04.0822.7%11.9%5.6%2.4%0.9%
TBNick
Pivetta
8.03.9220.2%10.3%4.7%1.9%0.7%
MILMerrill
Kelly
7.03.8919.8%10.0%4.5%1.8%0.7%
CHWLouie
Varland
7.53.8719.5%9.8%4.4%1.8%0.7%
NYYGlenn
Otto
7.53.8419.0%9.5%4.2%1.7%0.6%
LAAKen
Waldichuk
6.53.8118.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
BALMitch
White
7.03.7017.0%8.2%3.5%1.4%0.5%
TEXDomingo
German
7.53.6616.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
MINDavis
Martin
7.53.6316.0%7.6%3.2%1.2%0.4%
DETMarco
Gonzales
7.53.4113.1%5.9%2.3%0.8%0.3%
TORSpenser
Watkins
7.03.3011.7%5.1%2.0%0.7%0.2%
KCAaron
Civale
7.53.2911.6%5.0%1.9%0.7%0.2%
PHIFramber
Valdez
7.53.2611.2%4.8%1.9%0.6%0.2%
ARICorbin
Burnes
7.03.119.5%3.9%1.4%0.5%0.1%
OAKShohei
Ohtani
6.52.695.6%2.0%0.6%0.2%0.0%
ATLElieser
Hernandez
0.00.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
BALAlek
Manoah
0.00.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
COLClayton
Kershaw
0.00.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
MIAMax
Fried
0.00.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
LADChad
Kuhl
0.00.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NYMErick
Fedde
0.00.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
PITMatthew
Liberatore
0.00.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
SDLuis
Ortiz
0.00.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
SFMike
Clevinger
0.00.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
STLJohan
Oviedo
0.00.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
TORMike
Baumann
0.00.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
WSHTrevor
Williams
0.00.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Corbin
Burnes
ARI8.396.5%91.5%83.2%71.8%58.4%44.5%31.7%
Shohei
Ohtani
OAK7.192.5%83.9%71.6%56.9%42.1%28.8%18.3%
Framber
Valdez
PHI6.790.1%79.7%65.8%50.3%35.5%23.1%14.0%
Clayton
Kershaw
COL6.084.9%71.5%55.4%39.4%25.6%15.3%8.4%
Max
Fried
MIA5.478.2%62.0%44.7%29.2%17.4%9.4%4.7%
Merrill
Kelly
MIL5.478.1%61.9%44.5%29.1%17.2%9.3%4.6%
Nick
Pivetta
TB5.174.7%57.5%40.0%25.1%14.3%7.4%3.5%
Trevor
Williams
WSH5.073.6%56.1%38.6%23.9%13.4%6.9%3.2%
Johan
Oviedo
STL4.870.7%52.6%35.1%21.1%11.4%5.6%2.5%
Davis
Martin
MIN4.667.8%49.1%31.8%18.5%9.7%4.6%2.0%
Aaron
Civale
KC4.464.6%45.5%28.5%16.0%8.1%3.7%1.6%
Trevor
Richards
BAL4.464.4%45.3%28.3%15.9%8.0%3.7%1.5%
Bailey
Falter
HOU4.464.4%45.3%28.3%15.9%8.0%3.7%1.5%
Domingo
German
TEX4.362.6%43.3%26.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
Marco
Gonzales
DET4.362.3%43.0%26.3%14.4%7.1%3.2%1.3%
Glenn
Otto
NYY4.361.6%42.2%25.7%13.9%6.8%3.0%1.2%
Ken
Waldichuk
LAA4.361.4%42.0%25.5%13.8%6.7%3.0%1.2%
Mike
Clevinger
SF4.261.2%41.8%25.3%13.7%6.7%2.9%1.2%
Elieser
Hernandez
ATL4.159.0%39.5%23.4%12.4%5.9%2.5%1.0%
Josh
Fleming
BOS4.159.0%39.5%23.4%12.4%5.9%2.5%1.0%
Graham
Ashcraft
CHC4.158.2%38.7%22.7%11.9%5.6%2.4%0.9%
Louie
Varland
CHW4.055.9%36.3%20.9%10.7%4.9%2.0%0.8%
Austin
Gomber
LAD3.954.1%34.6%19.5%9.8%4.4%1.8%0.7%
Matthew
Liberatore
PIT3.853.5%34.0%19.0%9.5%4.2%1.7%0.6%
Yusei
Kikuchi
BAL3.751.2%31.9%17.4%8.4%3.7%1.4%0.5%
Jon
Heasley
CLE3.546.6%27.6%14.4%6.6%2.7%1.0%0.3%
Adrian
Sampson
CIN3.545.3%26.5%13.6%6.2%2.5%0.9%0.3%
Spenser
Watkins
TOR3.443.3%24.8%12.4%5.5%2.2%0.8%0.2%
Erick
Fedde
NYM3.443.1%24.7%12.3%5.4%2.1%0.8%0.2%
Tyler
Alexander
SEA3.443.1%24.7%12.3%5.4%2.1%0.8%0.2%
Mike
Baumann
TOR2.830.4%14.9%6.3%2.4%0.8%0.2%0.1%
Luis
Ortiz
SD2.524.7%11.2%4.3%1.5%0.4%0.1%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo112Spenser
Watkins
26.9%+270
Joc
Pederson
SFYes95Mike
Clevinger
25.0%+300
Jose
Altuve
HOUYes101Bailey
Falter
24.6%+305
Anthony
Santander
BALYes110Trevor
Richards
24.3%+310
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes99Tyler
Alexander
24.3%+310
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo98Erick
Fedde
23.9%+320
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo111Graham
Ashcraft
23.6%+325
Mookie
Betts
LADYes107Austin
Gomber
23.6%+325
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes101Glenn
Otto
23.4%+325
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo112Mike
Baumann
23.3%+330
Will
Smith
LADYes107Austin
Gomber
22.6%+340
Taylor
Ward
LAAYes94Ken
Waldichuk
22.5%+345
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes111Louie
Varland
22.5%+345
Matt
Chapman
TORNo112Spenser
Watkins
22.3%+350
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes111Louie
Varland
22.0%+355
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes92Matthew
Liberatore
21.7%+360
Jake
Fraley
CINYes113Adrian
Sampson
21.7%+360
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo106Louie
Varland
21.4%+365
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo112Spenser
Watkins
21.2%+370
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo90Elieser
Hernandez
20.8%+380
George
Springer
TORNo112Spenser
Watkins
20.7%+385
Shohei
Ohtani
LAANo92Ken
Waldichuk
20.5%+390
Eugenio
Suarez
SEAYes99Tyler
Alexander
20.4%+390
Danny
Jansen
TORNo112Mike
Baumann
20.1%+395
Anthony
Santander
BALYes112Yusei
Kikuchi
19.9%+400
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALYes112Yusei
Kikuchi
19.9%+400
Elvis
Andrus
CHWNo106Louie
Varland
19.8%+405
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Jon
Heasley
19.8%+405
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo112Trevor
Richards
19.5%+410
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo111Graham
Ashcraft
19.4%+415
Mitch
Haniger
SEAYes99Tyler
Alexander
19.3%+420
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes95Erick
Fedde
19.1%+425
Joey
Gallo
LADNo102Austin
Gomber
19.0%+425
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo103Merrill
Kelly
18.9%+430
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo95Glenn
Otto
18.8%+430
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo95Domingo
German
18.8%+430
J.D.
Davis
SFNo96Mike
Clevinger
18.4%+445
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYNo95Glenn
Otto
18.3%+445
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes92Elieser
Hernandez
18.1%+450
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes101Merrill
Kelly
17.8%+460
Max
Muncy
LADNo102Austin
Gomber
17.6%+470
Gary
Sanchez
MINNo106Davis
Martin
17.6%+470
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes95Mike
Clevinger
17.5%+470
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo95Glenn
Otto
17.2%+480
Gunnar
Henderson
BALYes110Trevor
Richards
17.1%+485
Matt
Olson
ATLYes92Elieser
Hernandez
17.1%+485
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUNo102Bailey
Falter
17.1%+485
Austin
Riley
ATLNo90Elieser
Hernandez
17.0%+490
William
Contreras
ATLNo90Elieser
Hernandez
17.0%+490
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes95Erick
Fedde
17.0%+490
Oswaldo
Cabrera
NYYYes101Glenn
Otto
16.6%+500
Alex
Bregman
HOUYes101Bailey
Falter
16.6%+505
Lane
Thomas
WSHNo98Trevor
Williams
16.5%+505
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes110Trevor
Richards
16.5%+505
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo90Elieser
Hernandez
16.5%+505
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo106Louie
Varland
16.3%+510
Javier
Baez
DETYes99Marco
Gonzales
16.3%+515
Franmil
Reyes
CHCNo111Graham
Ashcraft
16.3%+515
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo111Graham
Ashcraft
16.3%+515
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Jon
Heasley
16.3%+515
Bryce
Harper
PHINo102Framber
Valdez
16.1%+520
Kyle
Tucker
HOUNo102Bailey
Falter
16.1%+520
Salvador
Perez
KCNo99Aaron
Civale
16.1%+525
Justin
Turner
LADYes107Austin
Gomber
16.0%+525
Rodolfo
Castro
PITYes92Matthew
Liberatore
16.0%+525
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo90Elieser
Hernandez
16.0%+525
Rhys
Hoskins
PHIYes101Framber
Valdez
15.9%+525
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo106Louie
Varland
15.7%+535
Ty
France
SEAYes99Tyler
Alexander
15.7%+535
MJ
Melendez
KCYes103Aaron
Civale
15.6%+540
Freddie
Freeman
LADNo102Austin
Gomber
15.5%+545
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo95Glenn
Otto
15.5%+545
Josh
Jung
TEXNo95Domingo
German
15.5%+545
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo99Nick
Pivetta
15.5%+545
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes101Domingo
German
15.4%+550
Willy
Adames
MILNo103Merrill
Kelly
15.4%+550
Elias
Diaz
COLYes107Clayton
Kershaw
15.3%+550
Elehuris
Montero
COLYes107Clayton
Kershaw
15.3%+550
Jeremy
Pena
HOUYes101Bailey
Falter
15.3%+555
Cavan
Biggio
TORYes110Spenser
Watkins
15.1%+560
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes110Trevor
Richards
15.1%+560
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo99Aaron
Civale
14.9%+575
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes101Domingo
German
14.8%+575
Pavin
Smith
ARIYes101Corbin
Burnes
14.8%+575
Christian
Walker
ARINo103Corbin
Burnes
14.7%+580
Juan
Soto
SDYes95Luis
Ortiz
14.6%+585
Trea
Turner
LADYes107Austin
Gomber
14.6%+585
Bo
Bichette
TORNo112Spenser
Watkins
14.4%+595
Jack
Suwinski
PITNo95Matthew
Liberatore
14.2%+605
Kolten
Wong
MILYes101Merrill
Kelly
14.1%+610
Jo
Adell
LAAYes94Ken
Waldichuk
13.8%+625
Cavan
Biggio
TORYes110Mike
Baumann
13.7%+630
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes99Tyler
Alexander
13.7%+630
J.D.
Martinez
BOSYes99Josh
Fleming
13.7%+630
Sam
Haggerty
SEAYes99Tyler
Alexander
13.7%+630
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes112Yusei
Kikuchi
13.7%+630
Austin
Hays
BALNo112Trevor
Richards
13.7%+630
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo94Shohei
Ohtani
13.6%+635
Jason
Vosler
SFYes95Mike
Clevinger
13.4%+645
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes95Johan
Oviedo
13.4%+645
Rafael
Devers
BOSNo93Josh
Fleming
13.4%+645
Albert
Pujols
STLNo92Johan
Oviedo
13.4%+645
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo92Johan
Oviedo
13.4%+645
J.T.
Realmuto
PHIYes101Framber
Valdez
13.3%+655
Trey
Mancini
HOUYes101Bailey
Falter
13.3%+655
Orlando
Arcia
ATLNo90Elieser
Hernandez
13.1%+660
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo95Domingo
German
13.1%+660
Francisco
Alvarez
NYMNo98Erick
Fedde
12.9%+675
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo111Adrian
Sampson
12.9%+680
Kyle
Schwarber
PHINo102Framber
Valdez
12.8%+680
Thairo
Estrada
SFNo96Mike
Clevinger
12.6%+690
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes94Ken
Waldichuk
12.5%+700
Gunnar
Henderson
BALNo110Yusei
Kikuchi
12.4%+705
Matt
Wallner
MINYes111Davis
Martin
12.4%+710
Luke
Voit
WSHNo98Trevor
Williams
12.2%+720
Joey
Meneses
WSHNo98Trevor
Williams
12.2%+720
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes112Yusei
Kikuchi
12.1%+725
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes101Corbin
Burnes
12.1%+725
Peyton
Burdick
MIAYes90Max
Fried
12.0%+730
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo96Mike
Clevinger
12.0%+735
Randal
Grichuk
COLYes107Clayton
Kershaw
11.7%+755
Sean
Bouchard
COLYes107Clayton
Kershaw
11.7%+755
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo99Aaron
Civale
11.7%+760
Cody
Bellinger
LADNo102Austin
Gomber
11.6%+760
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes99Marco
Gonzales
11.6%+760
Dylan
Moore
SEAYes99Tyler
Alexander
11.6%+760
Oneil
Cruz
PITNo95Matthew
Liberatore
11.5%+770
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes95Erick
Fedde
11.5%+770
Christian
Yelich
MILYes101Merrill
Kelly
11.4%+780
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes101Domingo
German
11.4%+780
Joey
Bart
SFNo96Mike
Clevinger
11.3%+780
Seth
Brown
OAKYes92Shohei
Ohtani
11.2%+795
Nick
Castellanos
PHIYes101Framber
Valdez
11.1%+800
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUYes101Bailey
Falter
11.1%+800
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENo99Jon
Heasley
11.0%+810
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo106Louie
Varland
10.9%+815
Carlos
Correa
MINNo106Davis
Martin
10.9%+815
Gio
Urshela
MINNo106Davis
Martin
10.9%+815
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSYes99Josh
Fleming
10.9%+820
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes103Aaron
Civale
10.9%+820
Corbin
Carroll
ARIYes101Corbin
Burnes
10.7%+835
Carson
Kelly
ARINo103Corbin
Burnes
10.6%+840
Luis
Urias
MILNo103Merrill
Kelly
10.6%+840
P.J.
Higgins
CHCNo111Graham
Ashcraft
10.6%+845
Jorge
Mateo
BALYes112Yusei
Kikuchi
10.5%+855
Jarred
Kelenic
SEANo96Tyler
Alexander
10.5%+855
Martin
Maldonado
HOUYes101Bailey
Falter
10.3%+865
Yandy
Diaz
TBNo99Nick
Pivetta
10.3%+875
Jose
Siri
TBNo99Nick
Pivetta
10.3%+875
Riley
Adams
WSHNo98Trevor
Williams
10.2%+880
Corey
Dickerson
STLYes95Johan
Oviedo
10.1%+890
Jake
McCarthy
ARIYes101Corbin
Burnes
9.9%+905
Garrett
Mitchell
MILYes101Merrill
Kelly
9.9%+905
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo103Merrill
Kelly
9.9%+910
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo112Trevor
Richards
9.9%+910
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo112Spenser
Watkins
9.9%+910
Conner
Capel
OAKYes92Shohei
Ohtani
9.8%+915
Rougned
Odor
BALNo110Yusei
Kikuchi
9.8%+920
Nico
Hoerner
CHCNo111Graham
Ashcraft
9.8%+920
Jonathan
India
CINNo111Adrian
Sampson
9.8%+920
Spencer
Steer
CINNo111Adrian
Sampson
9.8%+920
Brandon
Marsh
PHINo102Framber
Valdez
9.8%+920
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo92Johan
Oviedo
9.6%+940
Christian
Bethancourt
TBNo99Nick
Pivetta
9.6%+945
Brandon
Crawford
SFYes95Mike
Clevinger
9.4%+960
Josh
Harrison
CHWNo106Louie
Varland
9.4%+960
Spencer
Torkelson
DETYes99Marco
Gonzales
9.4%+965
Bryan
De
La
Cruz
MIAYes90Max
Fried
9.3%+970
Brandon
Drury
SDNo96Luis
Ortiz
9.3%+975
Jake
Cave
MINYes111Davis
Martin
9.2%+985
Nick
Gordon
MINYes111Davis
Martin
9.2%+985
Terrin
Vavra
BALYes110Trevor
Richards
9.1%+995
Mark
Canha
NYMNo98Erick
Fedde
8.8%+1040
Alex
Call
WSHNo98Trevor
Williams
8.8%+1040
Eddie
Rosario
ATLYes92Elieser
Hernandez
8.5%+1080
Josh
Rojas
ARIYes101Corbin
Burnes
8.4%+1085
Kurt
Suzuki
LAAYes94Ken
Waldichuk
8.2%+1115
Luis
Garcia
WSHNo98Trevor
Williams
8.0%+1145
Josh
Bell
SDYes95Luis
Ortiz
8.0%+1150
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes95Johan
Oviedo
8.0%+1150
Chas
McCormick
HOUYes101Bailey
Falter
8.0%+1155
Manny
Machado
SDNo96Luis
Ortiz
7.9%+1165
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo95Glenn
Otto
7.8%+1180
Shea
Langeliers
OAKNo94Shohei
Ohtani
7.7%+1190
Kyle
Stowers
BALNo110Yusei
Kikuchi
7.7%+1190
Jackie
Bradley
TORYes110Mike
Baumann
7.4%+1245
Austin
Romine
CINNo111Adrian
Sampson
7.4%+1260
Jeff
McNeil
NYMYes95Erick
Fedde
7.3%+1280
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes95Luis
Ortiz
7.3%+1280
Ford
Proctor
SFYes95Mike
Clevinger
7.3%+1280
Triston
Casas
BOSNo93Josh
Fleming
7.2%+1280
Brian
Anderson
MIAYes90Max
Fried
7.2%+1295
Nick
Fortes
MIAYes90Max
Fried
7.2%+1295
Charles
Leblanc
MIAYes90Max
Fried
7.2%+1295

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