FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Sunday 10/2/22
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Shane Bieber ($10,600)
At his lowest salary point since August 26th, Cleveland's ace will challenge a Kansas City Royals' lineup with a .312 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a 21.9% K-rate for the third time this season.
In his most recent 43.0 innings, Bieber has really been in a grove through six starts, accounting for a 2.78 expected Independent Fielding Pitching rating (xFIP), a 14.0% swinging strike rate, and six or more strikeouts in 83% of his appearances.
With Sunday's top projection (43.2) by almost five points, a slate-high 4.07 value rating, and a 7.9 strikeout prediction, there are plenty of reasons the 27-year old rates as an elite option against a team he has allowed just one earned run in 12.2 innings.
Kevin Gausman ($10,500)
In an underrated spot versus a Boston Red Sox team with a .313 wOBA and a 25.4% K-rate including five batters with strikeout percentages between 25.5% and 35.0%, Gausman ranks second at his position with a 38.4 FanDuel point projection and 7.09 strikeouts.
Through five starts in the month of September despite producing a 4.02 earned run average, the 31-year old is likely due for better future luck when evaluating his 2.79 xFIP and 2.92 Skilled Interactive Earned Run Average during this time period.
Zack Wheeler ($9,500)
Since his return on September 21st from a forearm injury, Wheeler has displayed improved form when comparing his 3.61 xFIP in August to his recent 2.56 expected mark.
At his lowest salary point since May, as long as Philadelphia's veteran is not on a strict pitch count, the 32-year old has a great opportunity to reach his 32.3 fantasy projection against a Washington Nationals' offense with a 27.0% K-rate and a .312 wOBA.
Luis Garcia ($9,000)
Despite producing 43 FanDuel points in his last start, Garcia's FanDuel salary has moved down to his lowest point since August 12th.
While his command can sometimes be an issue (7.4% walk rate), the Astros' third-year starter still ranks fourth among Sunday's 14 pitchers with a 30.0 FanDuel point projection and 5.58 strikeouts versus a Tampa Bay Rays' unit with an advantageous .294 wOBA, a 21.4% K-rate, and a 36.5% hard hit percentage.
With a 4.7 expected run total, the Phillies stand as an important decision point in their fourth encounter against Washington's southpaw Patrick Corbin.
Through his most recent nine starts, the Nationals' 33-year old has continued his struggles this season, accounting for a 4.36 xFIP, a 14.8% strikeout percentage, and an opposing 14.6% barrel rate.
Due to his struggles against right-handed bats (4.20 xFIP, .387 wOBA), Philadelphia stacks should revolve around Rhys Hoskins (11.2% barrel rate, .452 expected slugging), J.T. Realmuto (11.5% barrel rate, .464 expected slugging), Alec Bohm (.292 expected average, .440 expected slugging), Nick Castellanos (35.1% hard hit rate), Jean Segura (39% hard hit rate), and Matt Vierling (.280 expected average, .411 expected slugging).
In a matchup versus Boston's Michael Wacha, the Blue Jays stand as Sunday's second rated offense with a 4.3 run total against a veteran right-hander due for serious regression when comparing his 4.01 xFIP to his 3.06 earned run average.
When analyzing his reliance on keeping the ball on the ground (40.8% percentage in 123.1 innings this season), ideal Toronto stacks should include their best power or fly-ball hitters including George Springer (.438 expected slugging, 39.2% fly-ball rate), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (11.2% barrel rate, .457 expected slugging), Matt Chapman (13.1% barrel rate, 49.1% fly-ball percentage), Danny Jansen (47.6% fly-ball rate, 13.5% barrel percentage), and Teoscar Hernandez (.492 expected slugging, 14.7% barrel rate).
As Sunday's third ranked offense, the Astros stand as an underrated stack with a 4.2 run total against Tampa Bay's Corey Kluber.
To best attack his main weakness versus the opposing side of the plate (,325 wOBA, 4.00 xFIP), Yordan Alvarez (21.1% barrel rate, .670 expected slugging) and Kyle Tucker (.482 expected slugging, 10.4% barrel rate) should be considered core pieces of Houston combinations while Jose Altuve (7.9% barrel rate, .354 expected wOBA), Alex Bregman (.352 expected wOBA, 7.5% barrel rate), Trey Mancini (10% barrel rate, .330 expected wOBA), and Chas McCormick (10.5% barrel rate, .412 expected slugging) rate well enough with their batted ball metrics.