MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Wednesday 9/28/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
ATLJosiah
Gray
8.54.9337.2%22.8%12.6%6.4%2.9%
LAAAdrian
Martinez
8.54.8034.9%20.9%11.3%5.6%2.5%
SFJose
Urena
8.54.6933.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
BOSDean
Kremer
9.04.6732.6%19.1%10.1%4.9%2.1%
BALRich
Hill
9.04.3326.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
MINJohnny
Cueto
8.04.0221.8%11.3%5.2%2.2%0.8%
LADJoe
Musgrove
7.53.9921.3%11.0%5.1%2.1%0.8%
CHWJosh
Winder
8.03.9821.2%10.9%5.0%2.1%0.8%
NYMJesus
Luzardo
7.03.9620.9%10.7%4.9%2.0%0.8%
DETDaniel
Lynch
7.53.9320.4%10.4%4.7%1.9%0.7%
NYYMitch
White
7.53.8919.8%10.0%4.5%1.8%0.7%
PITLuis
Cessa
7.53.8419.0%9.5%4.2%1.7%0.6%
COLSean
Hjelle
8.53.8118.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
MILJose
Quintana
7.03.8018.4%9.1%4.0%1.6%0.6%
OAKMichael
Lorenzen
8.53.7017.0%8.2%3.5%1.4%0.5%
PHIHayden
Wesneski
6.53.6916.8%8.1%3.5%1.3%0.5%
CINBryse
Wilson
7.53.6616.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
HOUZac
Gallen
6.53.6516.3%7.7%3.3%1.3%0.4%
TORGerrit
Cole
7.53.6115.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
KCMatt
Manning
7.53.5715.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
WSHJake
Odorizzi
8.53.5715.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
SEAMartin
Perez
6.53.5615.0%7.0%2.9%1.1%0.4%
SDJulio
Urias
7.53.5114.4%6.6%2.7%1.0%0.3%
CLETyler
Glasnow
6.53.3912.8%5.7%2.3%0.8%0.3%
STLBrandon
Woodruff
7.03.2010.5%4.5%1.7%0.6%0.2%
TBTriston
McKenzie
6.53.119.5%3.9%1.4%0.5%0.1%
MIATaijuan
Walker
7.03.048.8%3.6%1.3%0.4%0.1%
TEXGeorge
Kirby
6.52.947.8%3.1%1.1%0.3%0.1%
ARIJustin
Verlander
6.52.857.0%2.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%
CHCAaron
Nola
6.52.816.6%2.5%0.8%0.2%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Aaron
Nola
CHC7.493.6%85.8%74.4%60.4%45.6%32.0%20.9%
Brandon
Woodruff
STL7.292.7%84.3%72.2%57.7%42.8%29.5%18.8%
Gerrit
Cole
TOR6.991.5%82.1%69.0%54.0%39.1%26.2%16.2%
Justin
Verlander
ARI6.286.7%74.2%58.7%42.7%28.5%17.5%9.9%
Triston
McKenzie
TB6.286.5%74.0%58.4%42.4%28.3%17.3%9.8%
Zac
Gallen
HOU5.984.1%70.3%54.0%37.9%24.4%14.4%7.8%
Julio
Urias
SD5.983.7%69.7%53.3%37.3%23.8%14.0%7.5%
Jesus
Luzardo
NYM5.781.8%67.0%50.2%34.2%21.3%12.2%6.4%
Hayden
Wesneski
PHI5.680.6%65.3%48.3%32.5%19.9%11.2%5.7%
Joe
Musgrove
LAD5.579.7%64.1%46.9%31.2%18.9%10.5%5.3%
George
Kirby
TEX5.478.8%62.8%45.6%30.0%18.0%9.8%4.9%
Tyler
Glasnow
CLE5.174.7%57.5%40.0%25.1%14.3%7.4%3.5%
Martin
Perez
SEA5.174.5%57.2%39.6%24.8%14.1%7.3%3.4%
Josiah
Gray
ATL4.971.3%53.3%35.8%21.6%11.8%5.9%2.7%
Rich
Hill
BAL4.870.4%52.2%34.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
Taijuan
Walker
MIA4.667.8%49.1%31.8%18.5%9.7%4.6%2.0%
Matt
Manning
KC4.667.8%49.1%31.8%18.5%9.7%4.6%2.0%
Johnny
Cueto
MIN4.666.6%47.7%30.6%17.5%9.1%4.3%1.8%
Dean
Kremer
BOS4.566.3%47.4%30.2%17.3%8.9%4.2%1.8%
Michael
Lorenzen
OAK4.463.9%44.7%27.8%15.5%7.8%3.5%1.5%
Jose
Quintana
MIL4.463.2%43.9%27.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
Jake
Odorizzi
WSH4.363.0%43.7%27.0%14.9%7.4%3.3%1.4%
Daniel
Lynch
DET4.361.9%42.6%26.0%14.2%7.0%3.1%1.3%
Adrian
Martinez
LAA4.259.5%40.0%23.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
Sean
Hjelle
COL4.056.8%37.3%21.6%11.2%5.2%2.2%0.8%
Mitch
White
NYY4.056.3%36.7%21.2%10.9%5.0%2.1%0.8%
Jose
Urena
SF3.852.4%33.0%18.3%9.0%4.0%1.6%0.6%
Josh
Winder
CHW3.749.7%30.5%16.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
Bryse
Wilson
CIN3.546.8%27.8%14.5%6.7%2.8%1.0%0.3%
Luis
Cessa
PIT3.545.5%26.7%13.7%6.2%2.5%0.9%0.3%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo103Hayden
Wesneski
28.6%+250
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes108Adrian
Martinez
27.9%+260
Matt
Olson
ATLYes104Josiah
Gray
27.3%+265
Bryce
Harper
PHIYes96Hayden
Wesneski
27.2%+270
Mike
Trout
LAANo103Adrian
Martinez
26.4%+280
Austin
Riley
ATLNo106Josiah
Gray
26.0%+285
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo103Brandon
Woodruff
25.1%+300
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo106Josiah
Gray
24.2%+310
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes96Hayden
Wesneski
23.9%+320
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo106Josiah
Gray
23.8%+320
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo103Brandon
Woodruff
23.3%+330
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo101Mitch
White
22.5%+345
Joc
Pederson
SFYes87Jose
Urena
22.0%+355
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo103Hayden
Wesneski
21.8%+360
David
Villar
SFNo90Jose
Urena
21.7%+360
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes93Dean
Kremer
21.6%+365
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes99Josh
Winder
21.6%+365
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes99Josh
Winder
21.6%+365
Pete
Alonso
NYMYes98Jesus
Luzardo
21.6%+365
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes102Zac
Gallen
21.5%+365
Seth
Brown
OAKYes108Michael
Lorenzen
21.3%+370
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo106Josiah
Gray
21.2%+370
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYNo101Mitch
White
21.0%+375
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo101Gerrit
Cole
21.0%+375
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo99Dean
Kremer
20.7%+385
Willy
Adames
MILYes103Jose
Quintana
20.7%+385
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo98Josh
Winder
20.5%+385
Christian
Walker
ARINo101Justin
Verlander
20.5%+390
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes95Luis
Cessa
20.4%+390
TJ
Friedl
CINYes95Bryse
Wilson
20.4%+390
Trea
Turner
LADNo96Joe
Musgrove
20.2%+395
Manny
Machado
SDYes96Julio
Urias
20.2%+395
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes104Josiah
Gray
20.2%+395
Matt
Chapman
TORNo101Gerrit
Cole
19.9%+400
MJ
Melendez
KCYes94Matt
Manning
19.8%+405
Taylor
Ward
LAANo103Adrian
Martinez
19.7%+410
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo103Michael
Lorenzen
19.7%+410
Luke
Voit
WSHNo106Jake
Odorizzi
19.5%+415
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo101Zac
Gallen
19.4%+415
George
Springer
TORNo101Gerrit
Cole
19.4%+415
Mookie
Betts
LADNo96Joe
Musgrove
19.2%+420
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo103Aaron
Nola
19.1%+425
Lane
Thomas
WSHNo106Jake
Odorizzi
18.9%+430
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes99Martin
Perez
18.9%+430
Eric
Haase
DETYes99Daniel
Lynch
18.9%+430
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALYes99Rich
Hill
18.9%+430
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Tyler
Glasnow
18.8%+430
Emmanuel
Rivera
ARINo101Justin
Verlander
18.8%+430
C.J.
Cron
COLNo90Sean
Hjelle
18.8%+430
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes94Mitch
White
18.7%+435
Corey
Seager
TEXYes96George
Kirby
18.4%+445
Anthony
Santander
BALYes99Rich
Hill
18.3%+445
Danny
Jansen
TORNo101Gerrit
Cole
18.2%+450
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes98Jesus
Luzardo
18.1%+450
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes102Zac
Gallen
18.1%+450
Will
Smith
LADNo96Joe
Musgrove
18.1%+455
Stuart
Fairchild
CINNo92Bryse
Wilson
18.0%+455
Nick
Maton
PHIYes96Hayden
Wesneski
17.8%+460
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes99Rich
Hill
17.7%+465
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo101Mitch
White
17.6%+465
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo101Gerrit
Cole
17.6%+465
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes87Jose
Urena
17.6%+470
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes102Justin
Verlander
17.5%+470
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo99George
Kirby
17.4%+475
Albert
Pujols
STLNo103Brandon
Woodruff
17.3%+480
Elvis
Andrus
CHWNo98Josh
Winder
17.2%+480
Bo
Bichette
TORNo101Gerrit
Cole
17.0%+485
Michael
Brosseau
MILYes103Jose
Quintana
16.9%+490
Salvador
Perez
KCNo99Matt
Manning
16.8%+495
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo99Triston
McKenzie
16.8%+495
Isaac
Paredes
TBNo99Triston
McKenzie
16.8%+495
Max
Muncy
LADYes95Joe
Musgrove
16.5%+505
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo99Matt
Manning
16.2%+520
Gary
Sanchez
MINNo98Johnny
Cueto
16.0%+525
Brandon
Drury
SDYes96Julio
Urias
16.0%+525
Jake
Fraley
CINYes95Bryse
Wilson
15.9%+530
Trey
Mancini
HOUNo101Zac
Gallen
15.8%+535
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo101Mitch
White
15.8%+535
Orlando
Arcia
ATLNo106Josiah
Gray
15.7%+535
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes98Jesus
Luzardo
15.6%+540
Keston
Hiura
MILYes103Jose
Quintana
15.5%+545
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes101Brandon
Woodruff
15.4%+550
Bryan
De
La
Cruz
MIANo98Taijuan
Walker
15.4%+550
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes95Joe
Musgrove
15.3%+555
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLNo106Josiah
Gray
15.1%+565
Austin
Hays
BALYes99Rich
Hill
15.0%+565
Ty
France
SEAYes99Martin
Perez
15.0%+565
Brandon
Crawford
SFYes87Jose
Urena
14.8%+575
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes87Sean
Hjelle
14.8%+575
LaMonte
Wade
Jr
SFYes87Jose
Urena
14.8%+575
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo98Josh
Winder
14.8%+575
Franmil
Reyes
CHCNo103Aaron
Nola
14.7%+580
Justin
Turner
LADNo96Joe
Musgrove
14.5%+590
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo101Zac
Gallen
14.5%+590
Joey
Meneses
WSHNo106Jake
Odorizzi
14.4%+595
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo90Jose
Urena
14.4%+595
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Tyler
Glasnow
14.3%+600
Wander
Franco
TBYes103Triston
McKenzie
14.3%+600
Juan
Soto
SDNo95Julio
Urias
14.3%+600
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes96George
Kirby
14.2%+605
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes96George
Kirby
14.2%+605
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo98Josh
Winder
14.1%+610
Andrew
McCutchen
MILYes103Jose
Quintana
14.1%+610
Joey
Gallo
LADYes95Joe
Musgrove
14.0%+615
Ben
Gamel
PITYes95Luis
Cessa
14.0%+615
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes95Joe
Musgrove
14.0%+615
Jake
Cave
MINYes99Johnny
Cueto
13.8%+620
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo101Zac
Gallen
13.8%+625
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes99Rich
Hill
13.6%+635
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes96George
Kirby
13.5%+640
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes108Adrian
Martinez
13.4%+645
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes95Luis
Cessa
13.4%+650
Hunter
Renfroe
MILYes103Jose
Quintana
13.4%+650
Carlos
Correa
MINNo98Johnny
Cueto
12.8%+680
Corbin
Carroll
ARIYes102Justin
Verlander
12.8%+685
Jarred
Kelenic
SEANo96Martin
Perez
12.7%+685
Shea
Langeliers
OAKNo103Michael
Lorenzen
12.6%+690
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes87Sean
Hjelle
12.4%+705
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENo99Tyler
Glasnow
12.2%+720
Josh
Jung
TEXNo99George
Kirby
12.2%+720
Riley
Adams
WSHNo106Jake
Odorizzi
12.2%+720
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes94Matt
Manning
11.9%+740
Stephen
Vogt
OAKYes108Michael
Lorenzen
11.9%+745
Conner
Capel
OAKYes108Michael
Lorenzen
11.9%+745
Alex
Verdugo
BOSYes93Dean
Kremer
11.8%+745
Enrique
Hernandez
BOSNo99Dean
Kremer
11.5%+770
Jose
Siri
TBNo99Triston
McKenzie
11.5%+770
Dylan
Moore
SEAYes99Martin
Perez
11.4%+775
Mark
Canha
NYMYes98Jesus
Luzardo
11.3%+785
Cal
Mitchell
PITYes95Luis
Cessa
11.3%+785
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo90Sean
Hjelle
11.2%+790
Austin
Slater
SFNo90Jose
Urena
11.2%+790
Jason
Vosler
SFYes87Jose
Urena
11.1%+800
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDYes96Julio
Urias
11.1%+800
Luis
Urias
MILYes103Jose
Quintana
11.0%+805
Tyrone
Taylor
MILYes103Jose
Quintana
11.0%+805
Carson
Kelly
ARINo101Justin
Verlander
11.0%+810
Yu
Chang
BOSNo99Dean
Kremer
10.8%+830
Ildemaro
Vargas
WSHYes104Jake
Odorizzi
10.7%+835
Mitch
Haniger
SEAYes99Martin
Perez
10.7%+840
David
Peralta
TBYes103Triston
McKenzie
10.6%+840
Oswaldo
Cabrera
NYYYes94Mitch
White
10.5%+850
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes101Brandon
Woodruff
10.4%+860
Triston
Casas
BOSYes93Dean
Kremer
10.4%+860
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo103Aaron
Nola
10.4%+860
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes96Julio
Urias
10.4%+865
Spencer
Steer
CINNo92Bryse
Wilson
10.1%+890
Gunnar
Henderson
BALNo93Rich
Hill
10.1%+895
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo99George
Kirby
10.0%+895
Myles
Straw
CLENo99Tyler
Glasnow
10.0%+895
Ian
Happ
CHCYes96Aaron
Nola
10.0%+900
Brandon
Marsh
PHIYes96Hayden
Wesneski
10.0%+900
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo98Josh
Winder
10.0%+905
Nick
Fortes
MIANo98Taijuan
Walker
10.0%+905
Lewin
Diaz
MIAYes95Taijuan
Walker
9.9%+910
Robinson
Chirinos
BALYes99Rich
Hill
9.9%+915
Abraham
Toro
SEAYes99Martin
Perez
9.9%+915
Drew
Waters
KCYes94Matt
Manning
9.8%+920
Brendan
Donovan
STLYes101Brandon
Woodruff
9.7%+935
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo103Aaron
Nola
9.6%+940
Jordan
Diaz
OAKNo103Michael
Lorenzen
9.6%+940
Wil
Myers
SDYes96Julio
Urias
9.6%+940
Nick
Gordon
MINYes99Johnny
Cueto
9.5%+955
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo101Gerrit
Cole
9.5%+955
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes96Hayden
Wesneski
9.2%+985
Elias
Diaz
COLNo90Sean
Hjelle
9.2%+985
Gio
Urshela
MINNo98Johnny
Cueto
9.2%+985
Mike
Toglia
COLYes87Sean
Hjelle
9.1%+995
Jorge
Mateo
BALYes99Rich
Hill
9.1%+1005
Steven
Kwan
CLEYes103Tyler
Glasnow
9.0%+1010
Josh
Bell
SDYes96Julio
Urias
8.8%+1035
Jorge
Alfaro
SDYes96Julio
Urias
8.8%+1035
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo101Zac
Gallen
8.7%+1050
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo101Zac
Gallen
8.7%+1050
Mickey
Moniak
LAAYes108Adrian
Martinez
8.6%+1065
Livan
Soto
LAAYes108Adrian
Martinez
8.6%+1065
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo99Dean
Kremer
8.5%+1070
Harold
Ramirez
TBNo99Triston
McKenzie
8.5%+1070
JJ
Bleday
MIAYes95Taijuan
Walker
8.4%+1090
Riley
Greene
DETNo94Daniel
Lynch
8.3%+1100
Cavan
Biggio
TORYes94Gerrit
Cole
8.3%+1105
Curt
Casali
SEAYes99Martin
Perez
8.2%+1115
Javier
Baez
DETYes99Daniel
Lynch
8.2%+1115
Willi
Castro
DETYes99Daniel
Lynch
8.2%+1115
Spencer
Torkelson
DETYes99Daniel
Lynch
8.2%+1115
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes103Triston
McKenzie
8.2%+1120
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes102Justin
Verlander
8.1%+1130
Yasmani
Grandal
CHWYes99Josh
Winder
7.9%+1165
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo101Mitch
White
7.9%+1165
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMNo95Jesus
Luzardo
7.8%+1190
Manuel
Margot
TBNo99Triston
McKenzie
7.7%+1190
Amed
Rosario
CLENo99Tyler
Glasnow
7.7%+1190
Bubba
Thompson
TEXNo99George
Kirby
7.7%+1190
Mike
Ford
LAAYes108Adrian
Martinez
7.7%+1200
Brian
Anderson
MIANo98Taijuan
Walker
7.7%+1205
Jose
Miranda
MINNo98Johnny
Cueto
7.7%+1205
Jerar
Encarnacion
MIANo98Taijuan
Walker
7.7%+1205
Victor
Caratini
MILYes103Jose
Quintana
7.7%+1205
Rougned
Odor
BALNo93Rich
Hill
7.6%+1215

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