MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 9/26/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
ATLCory
Abbott
9.05.4145.6%30.0%18.0%9.8%4.9%
BOSJordan
Lyles
9.54.9337.2%22.8%12.6%6.4%2.9%
BALConnor
Seabold
9.54.5730.9%17.8%9.2%4.4%1.9%
PITChase
Anderson
8.04.3326.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
TORLuis
Severino
7.53.8218.7%9.3%4.1%1.6%0.6%
NYYKevin
Gausman
7.53.6816.7%8.0%3.4%1.3%0.5%
CINRoansy
Contreras
8.03.6716.6%7.9%3.4%1.3%0.5%
WSHBryce
Elder
9.03.5915.5%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Kevin
Gausman
NYY7.091.7%82.4%69.5%54.6%39.7%26.7%16.6%
Luis
Severino
TOR5.580.2%64.7%47.6%31.9%19.4%10.8%5.5%
Bryce
Elder
WSH4.768.6%50.0%32.6%19.1%10.1%4.9%2.1%
Jordan
Lyles
BOS4.565.3%46.2%29.2%16.5%8.4%3.9%1.6%
Roansy
Contreras
CIN4.463.4%44.1%27.3%15.1%7.6%3.4%1.4%
Connor
Seabold
BAL4.157.8%38.3%22.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
Cory
Abbott
ATL3.647.6%28.6%15.0%7.0%2.9%1.1%0.4%
Chase
Anderson
PIT3.240.2%22.3%10.8%4.6%1.7%0.6%0.2%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Austin
Riley
ATLNo106Cory
Abbott
28.7%+250
Matt
Olson
ATLYes104Cory
Abbott
27.7%+260
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo101Kevin
Gausman
25.3%+295
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo106Cory
Abbott
24.7%+305
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo106Cory
Abbott
24.2%+310
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes95Chase
Anderson
23.8%+320
William
Contreras
ATLNo106Cory
Abbott
23.3%+330
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo101Luis
Severino
21.5%+365
Bo
Bichette
TORNo101Luis
Severino
21.5%+365
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes104Cory
Abbott
21.3%+370
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo101Luis
Severino
20.5%+390
Matt
Chapman
TORNo101Luis
Severino
20.5%+390
Jack
Suwinski
PITYes95Chase
Anderson
20.4%+390
Anthony
Santander
BALYes93Connor
Seabold
19.1%+425
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes93Connor
Seabold
19.1%+425
Joey
Meneses
WSHNo106Bryce
Elder
18.9%+430
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes95Chase
Anderson
18.8%+430
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes93Jordan
Lyles
18.5%+440
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYNo101Kevin
Gausman
17.6%+465
Danny
Jansen
TORNo101Luis
Severino
17.6%+465
Jonathan
India
CINNo92Roansy
Contreras
17.5%+470
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo99Connor
Seabold
16.8%+495
Lane
Thomas
WSHNo106Bryce
Elder
16.4%+510
Aristides
Aquino
CINNo92Roansy
Contreras
16.4%+510
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes93Connor
Seabold
16.3%+515
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo99Jordan
Lyles
16.2%+520
George
Springer
TORNo101Luis
Severino
15.8%+535
Rodolfo
Castro
PITYes95Chase
Anderson
15.3%+555
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo101Kevin
Gausman
15.1%+560
Luke
Voit
WSHNo106Bryce
Elder
15.1%+565
TJ
Friedl
CINYes95Roansy
Contreras
14.0%+615
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo101Kevin
Gausman
12.4%+705
Enrique
Hernandez
BOSNo99Jordan
Lyles
12.2%+720
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo99Connor
Seabold
12.2%+720
Jake
Fraley
CINYes95Roansy
Contreras
12.0%+730
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes94Kevin
Gausman
11.9%+740
Oswaldo
Cabrera
NYYYes94Kevin
Gausman
11.9%+740
Rougned
Odor
BALYes93Connor
Seabold
11.8%+745
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo101Kevin
Gausman
11.7%+755
Tommy
Pham
BOSNo99Jordan
Lyles
10.8%+830
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLNo106Cory
Abbott
10.7%+835
Riley
Adams
WSHNo106Bryce
Elder
10.7%+835
Vaughn
Grissom
ATLNo106Cory
Abbott
10.7%+835
Zack
Collins
PITYes95Chase
Anderson
10.6%+840
Cal
Mitchell
PITYes95Chase
Anderson
10.6%+840
Gunnar
Henderson
BALYes93Connor
Seabold
10.4%+860
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo99Jordan
Lyles
10.0%+895
Austin
Hays
BALNo99Connor
Seabold
10.0%+895
Alex
Verdugo
BOSYes93Jordan
Lyles
9.7%+930
Whit
Merrifield
TORNo101Luis
Severino
9.5%+955
Eddie
Rosario
ATLYes104Cory
Abbott
9.1%+1000
Reese
McGuire
BOSYes93Jordan
Lyles
9.0%+1015
Spencer
Steer
CINNo92Roansy
Contreras
8.7%+1050
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo101Luis
Severino
8.7%+1050
Yu
Chang
BOSNo99Jordan
Lyles
8.5%+1070
Triston
Casas
BOSYes93Jordan
Lyles
7.5%+1240
Terrin
Vavra
BALYes93Connor
Seabold
6.7%+1390
Ildemaro
Vargas
WSHYes104Bryce
Elder
6.6%+1420
Luis
Garcia
WSHNo106Bryce
Elder
6.5%+1430
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo92Roansy
Contreras
6.5%+1440

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