MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 9/26/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Cory Abbott | 9.0 | 5.41 | 45.6% | 30.0% | 18.0% | 9.8% | 4.9% |
| BOS | Jordan Lyles | 9.5 | 4.93 | 37.2% | 22.8% | 12.6% | 6.4% | 2.9% |
| BAL | Connor Seabold | 9.5 | 4.57 | 30.9% | 17.8% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| PIT | Chase Anderson | 8.0 | 4.33 | 26.8% | 14.8% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| TOR | Luis Severino | 7.5 | 3.82 | 18.7% | 9.3% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| NYY | Kevin Gausman | 7.5 | 3.68 | 16.7% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| CIN | Roansy Contreras | 8.0 | 3.67 | 16.6% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| WSH | Bryce Elder | 9.0 | 3.59 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman | NYY | 7.0 | 91.7% | 82.4% | 69.5% | 54.6% | 39.7% | 26.7% | 16.6% |
| Luis Severino | TOR | 5.5 | 80.2% | 64.7% | 47.6% | 31.9% | 19.4% | 10.8% | 5.5% |
| Bryce Elder | WSH | 4.7 | 68.6% | 50.0% | 32.6% | 19.1% | 10.1% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| Jordan Lyles | BOS | 4.5 | 65.3% | 46.2% | 29.2% | 16.5% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Roansy Contreras | CIN | 4.4 | 63.4% | 44.1% | 27.3% | 15.1% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Connor Seabold | BAL | 4.1 | 57.8% | 38.3% | 22.4% | 11.7% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Cory Abbott | ATL | 3.6 | 47.6% | 28.6% | 15.0% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Chase Anderson | PIT | 3.2 | 40.2% | 22.3% | 10.8% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | Split Adv? |
HR PF |
Opp SP |
HR Prob% |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | ATL | No | 106 | Cory Abbott | 28.7% | +250 |
| Matt Olson | ATL | Yes | 104 | Cory Abbott | 27.7% | +260 |
| Aaron Judge | NYY | No | 101 | Kevin Gausman | 25.3% | +295 |
| Dansby Swanson | ATL | No | 106 | Cory Abbott | 24.7% | +305 |
| Travis d'Arnaud | ATL | No | 106 | Cory Abbott | 24.2% | +310 |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | Yes | 95 | Chase Anderson | 23.8% | +320 |
| William Contreras | ATL | No | 106 | Cory Abbott | 23.3% | +330 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | No | 101 | Luis Severino | 21.5% | +365 |
| Bo Bichette | TOR | No | 101 | Luis Severino | 21.5% | +365 |
| Michael Harris II | ATL | Yes | 104 | Cory Abbott | 21.3% | +370 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | TOR | No | 101 | Luis Severino | 20.5% | +390 |
| Matt Chapman | TOR | No | 101 | Luis Severino | 20.5% | +390 |
| Jack Suwinski | PIT | Yes | 95 | Chase Anderson | 20.4% | +390 |
| Anthony Santander | BAL | Yes | 93 | Connor Seabold | 19.1% | +425 |
| Adley Rutschman | BAL | Yes | 93 | Connor Seabold | 19.1% | +425 |
| Joey Meneses | WSH | No | 106 | Bryce Elder | 18.9% | +430 |
| Oneil Cruz | PIT | Yes | 95 | Chase Anderson | 18.8% | +430 |
| Rafael Devers | BOS | Yes | 93 | Jordan Lyles | 18.5% | +440 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | NYY | No | 101 | Kevin Gausman | 17.6% | +465 |
| Danny Jansen | TOR | No | 101 | Luis Severino | 17.6% | +465 |
| Jonathan India | CIN | No | 92 | Roansy Contreras | 17.5% | +470 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | No | 99 | Connor Seabold | 16.8% | +495 |
| Lane Thomas | WSH | No | 106 | Bryce Elder | 16.4% | +510 |
| Aristides Aquino | CIN | No | 92 | Roansy Contreras | 16.4% | +510 |
| Cedric Mullins | BAL | Yes | 93 | Connor Seabold | 16.3% | +515 |
| J.D. Martinez | BOS | No | 99 | Jordan Lyles | 16.2% | +520 |
| George Springer | TOR | No | 101 | Luis Severino | 15.8% | +535 |
| Rodolfo Castro | PIT | Yes | 95 | Chase Anderson | 15.3% | +555 |
| Josh Donaldson | NYY | No | 101 | Kevin Gausman | 15.1% | +560 |
| Luke Voit | WSH | No | 106 | Bryce Elder | 15.1% | +565 |
| TJ Friedl | CIN | Yes | 95 | Roansy Contreras | 14.0% | +615 |
| Gleyber Torres | NYY | No | 101 | Kevin Gausman | 12.4% | +705 |
| Enrique Hernandez | BOS | No | 99 | Jordan Lyles | 12.2% | +720 |
| Jorge Mateo | BAL | No | 99 | Connor Seabold | 12.2% | +720 |
| Jake Fraley | CIN | Yes | 95 | Roansy Contreras | 12.0% | +730 |
| Anthony Rizzo | NYY | Yes | 94 | Kevin Gausman | 11.9% | +740 |
| Oswaldo Cabrera | NYY | Yes | 94 | Kevin Gausman | 11.9% | +740 |
| Rougned Odor | BAL | Yes | 93 | Connor Seabold | 11.8% | +745 |
| Jose Trevino | NYY | No | 101 | Kevin Gausman | 11.7% | +755 |
| Tommy Pham | BOS | No | 99 | Jordan Lyles | 10.8% | +830 |
| Marcell Ozuna | ATL | No | 106 | Cory Abbott | 10.7% | +835 |
| Riley Adams | WSH | No | 106 | Bryce Elder | 10.7% | +835 |
| Vaughn Grissom | ATL | No | 106 | Cory Abbott | 10.7% | +835 |
| Zack Collins | PIT | Yes | 95 | Chase Anderson | 10.6% | +840 |
| Cal Mitchell | PIT | Yes | 95 | Chase Anderson | 10.6% | +840 |
| Gunnar Henderson | BAL | Yes | 93 | Connor Seabold | 10.4% | +860 |
| Xander Bogaerts | BOS | No | 99 | Jordan Lyles | 10.0% | +895 |
| Austin Hays | BAL | No | 99 | Connor Seabold | 10.0% | +895 |
| Alex Verdugo | BOS | Yes | 93 | Jordan Lyles | 9.7% | +930 |
| Whit Merrifield | TOR | No | 101 | Luis Severino | 9.5% | +955 |
| Eddie Rosario | ATL | Yes | 104 | Cory Abbott | 9.1% | +1000 |
| Reese McGuire | BOS | Yes | 93 | Jordan Lyles | 9.0% | +1015 |
| Spencer Steer | CIN | No | 92 | Roansy Contreras | 8.7% | +1050 |
| Alejandro Kirk | TOR | No | 101 | Luis Severino | 8.7% | +1050 |
| Yu Chang | BOS | No | 99 | Jordan Lyles | 8.5% | +1070 |
| Triston Casas | BOS | Yes | 93 | Jordan Lyles | 7.5% | +1240 |
| Terrin Vavra | BAL | Yes | 93 | Connor Seabold | 6.7% | +1390 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | WSH | Yes | 104 | Bryce Elder | 6.6% | +1420 |
| Luis Garcia | WSH | No | 106 | Bryce Elder | 6.5% | +1430 |
| Kyle Farmer | CIN | No | 92 | Roansy Contreras | 6.5% | +1440 |
