MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 9/21/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Tigers Moneyline (+136): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Tigers +1.5 (-146): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
They're taking on Jordan Lyles at Camden Yards. The Tigers' offense has been miserable this year, especially against righties, but they've picked it up a bit of late. They have a decent .311 wOBA across the past 14 days, which ranks 18th, and Lyles shouldn't overpower them as he's sporting a mere 18.2% strikeout rate.
The Tigers are sending Matt Manning to the bump. Once a prized prospect, Manning struggled mightily as a rookie. He's been better in recent starts. He's held the opposition to two or fewer earned runs in five of his previous six outings. He's still not getting many punchouts (18.6% strikeout rate for the season), but he's not being hit hard, either (31.5% hard-hit rate).
While Detroit's offense is heating up -- by the Tigers' standards -- the Baltimore Orioles' are struggling. In the past 14 days, the O's are 26th in wOBA (.274).
We have this game as close to a coin-flip. With the Tigers priced at +136 on the moneyline, we like the Detroit side. The +136 number implies win odds of 42.4%. We think Detroit wins 48.3% of the time. We also give them a 65.7% chance to cover as 1.5-run 'dogs. Both bets are two-star wagers (two-unit recommendations).
Over 9.5 (-118): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
A 9.5-run total isn't that high for a Coors game, and our model thinks it's way too low.
In some ways, Webb has the tools to survive in the thin air. The biggest reason is his sky-high 56.6% ground-ball rate. But Webb is striking out only 20.2% of hitters, and he's permitted at least three earned runs in three of his last four Coors starts, including a six-run outing in 2021.
Marquez has struggled overall this season, and he's been really bad at home. At Coors this campaign, the Colorado Rockies' righty has allowed a .390 wOBA and 2.08 homers per nine. Big Yikes. Overall, he's surrendered a .366 wOBA to lefties, and the San Francisco Giants will likely pack their lineup with left-handed bats.
While we project both offenses to fare well, we think the Giants will shoulder the load to get us to the over, projecting this to be a 6.91-5.45 win for San Fran. That's 12.36 total runs -- nearly three runs more than the 9.5-run over/under. We project the over to cash 71.5% of the time and mark it as a four-star bet.