3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 9/20/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Austin Riley To Record an RBI (+105)
When Patrick Corbin is on the mound, we look to the opposing offense.
That offense would be the Atlanta Braves, who come in with a strong 5.37 implied run total tonight. Corbin has been one of the worst pitchers in the entire MLB this season, and we will continue to target him for player props until the season ends.
This year, Corbin is allowing a .529 SLG, .388 wOBA, 4.21 xFIP, 1.85 HR/9, 34.4% fly-ball rate, and 41.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Numbers like those bring immense upside to any righty facing him, putting several of the Braves hitters in a great spot.
We turn to Austin Riley, who is rocking a 208 wRC+, .475 wOBA, .376 ISO, 43.9% fly-ball rate, and 44.9% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. He's an MVP-caliber hitter in this split, so I'm also adding Riley 2+ RBI (+360).
Gio Urshela To Record 2+ Total Bases (-120)
The Minnesota Twins are another team to look to for some offense tonight.
With a 4.71 implied run total, the Twins should be pushing some runs across the plate tonight, and we want to capture that via some player props. They are going up against Zack Greinke, who is allowing a .448 SLG, .333 wOBA, 4.67 xFIP, 1.27 HR/9, and 43.0% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters.
Greinke also isn't a dominant strikeout pitcher, holding a low 15.3% punchout rate in this split. He isn't too much of a threat on the mound and often can get hit around a ton by the opposing offense.
This leads us to Gio Urshela, who has been solid this season versus right-handed pitchers with a 108 wRC+, .316 wOBA, low 17.4% strikeout rate, and 36.4% fly-ball rate. He isn't a massive power hitter, but he puts the ball in play and doesn't waste chances at the plate.
Luis Castillo Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+108)
Finally, we head out to the West Coast for a strikeout prop tonight.
Luis Castillo takes the mound for the Seattle Mariners, who are on the road to take on the Oakland Athletics. Castillo is an elite pitcher and comes in with a 27.4% strikeout rate and 12.5% swinging-strike rate. In recent starts, Castillo has managed to push those numbers even higher.
Over his last four starts, Castillo has posted a 37.5%, 33.3%, and 41.7% strikeout rate in three of them, along with a 15.2%, 13.0%, and 17.4% swinging-strike rate. This led to Castillo posting 8, 9, and 10 strikeouts in those three starts. He was already an elite pitcher and is somehow even better.
Tonight, Oakland presents a truly favorable matchup for Castillo. The Athletics are carrying a 24.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fifth-worst in the league. But wait, there's more.
Over the last 30 days, the Athletics have had a 27.0% strikeout rate, which is the fourth-worst in the league. Over the last 14 days, they have had a 33.0% strikeout rate, which is last in the league. Over the last seven days, they have had a 38.3% strikeout rate, which is last in the league.
Yes, these are small sample sizes, but one of the league's worst offenses has gotten even worse at the end of the season.
Given how overwhelmingly favorable this matchup is, a sprinkle on Castillo 9+ Strikeouts (+200) and Castillo 10+ Strikeouts (+360) is worth a shot.