MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 9/19/22
Betting MLB player props or playing daily fantasy baseball? See who is most likely to homer, rack up the most strikeouts, and score the most runs today.

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
SFChad
Kuhl
11.05.6850.2%34.2%21.3%12.2%6.4%
ATLCory
Abbott
8.55.3744.9%29.4%17.5%9.5%4.7%
COLJakob
Junis
11.05.3244.0%28.6%16.9%9.1%4.5%
BALTyler
Alexander
8.04.5530.6%17.5%9.1%4.3%1.8%
LADMerrill
Kelly
7.54.5330.2%17.3%8.9%4.2%1.8%
SEAJose
Suarez
7.53.8419.0%9.5%4.2%1.7%0.6%
CLESonny
Gray
7.53.8118.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
MIAWade
Miley
7.03.7017.0%8.2%3.5%1.4%0.5%
MINCal
Quantrill
7.53.6916.8%8.1%3.5%1.3%0.5%
LAALogan
Gilbert
7.53.6616.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
TBLuis
Garcia
7.03.5815.3%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%
DETTyler
Wells
8.03.4513.6%6.2%2.5%0.9%0.3%
HOUDrew
Rasmussen
7.03.4213.2%5.9%2.4%0.9%0.3%
CHCEdward
Cabrera
7.03.3011.7%5.1%2.0%0.7%0.2%
MILMax
Scherzer
6.53.2811.5%5.0%1.9%0.7%0.2%
NYMCorbin
Burnes
6.53.2210.8%4.6%1.7%0.6%0.2%
WSHKyle
Wright
8.53.139.8%4.0%1.5%0.5%0.2%
ARIClayton
Kershaw
7.52.978.1%3.2%1.1%0.4%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Max
Scherzer
MIL8.095.8%90.2%81.1%68.9%55.0%41.0%28.6%
Corbin
Burnes
NYM7.895.2%88.8%79.0%66.2%51.9%38.0%25.9%
Kyle
Wright
WSH6.185.6%72.6%56.7%40.7%26.7%16.1%9.0%
Clayton
Kershaw
ARI5.883.3%69.2%52.7%36.6%23.3%13.6%7.3%
Luis
Garcia
TB5.883.1%68.9%52.3%36.3%23.0%13.4%7.1%
Logan
Gilbert
LAA5.276.1%59.2%41.7%26.6%15.4%8.1%3.9%
Sonny
Gray
CLE5.175.4%58.4%40.9%25.9%14.8%7.8%3.7%
Edward
Cabrera
CHC5.174.7%57.5%40.0%25.1%14.3%7.4%3.5%
Merrill
Kelly
LAD5.073.5%56.0%38.4%23.8%13.3%6.8%3.2%
Jose
Suarez
SEA4.869.8%51.5%34.0%20.2%10.9%5.3%2.4%
Drew
Rasmussen
HOU4.769.3%50.9%33.5%19.8%10.6%5.1%2.3%
Wade
Miley
MIA4.361.9%42.6%26.0%14.2%7.0%3.1%1.3%
Cal
Quantrill
MIN4.361.9%42.6%26.0%14.2%7.0%3.1%1.3%
Jakob
Junis
COL4.159.0%39.5%23.4%12.4%5.9%2.5%1.0%
Tyler
Wells
DET3.750.8%31.5%17.1%8.3%3.6%1.4%0.5%
Chad
Kuhl
SF3.750.6%31.3%17.0%8.2%3.5%1.4%0.5%
Cory
Abbott
ATL3.545.7%26.9%13.8%6.3%2.6%0.9%0.3%
Tyler
Alexander
BAL3.238.6%21.1%10.0%4.2%1.5%0.5%0.2%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Joc
Pederson
SFYes109Chad
Kuhl
29.9%+235
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes108Logan
Gilbert
26.7%+275
Matt
Olson
ATLYes100Cory
Abbott
25.9%+285
Austin
Riley
ATLNo97Cory
Abbott
25.8%+285
Anthony
Santander
BALYes112Tyler
Alexander
23.1%+335
Eric
Haase
DETNo112Tyler
Wells
22.6%+340
Mike
Trout
LAANo103Logan
Gilbert
22.3%+350
Carlos
Correa
MINNo99Cal
Quantrill
22.2%+350
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes103Jose
Suarez
21.8%+360
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo97Cory
Abbott
21.4%+365
Trea
Turner
LADNo107Merrill
Kelly
21.3%+370
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes100Cory
Abbott
21.2%+370
Willy
Adames
MILNo103Max
Scherzer
20.8%+380
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo97Cory
Abbott
20.4%+390
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALYes112Tyler
Alexander
20.1%+400
Emmanuel
Rivera
ARIYes107Clayton
Kershaw
20.0%+400
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo108Chad
Kuhl
19.8%+405
C.J.
Cron
COLNo108Jakob
Junis
19.8%+405
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes101Max
Scherzer
19.7%+405
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo103Corbin
Burnes
19.7%+410
Mitch
Haniger
SEAYes103Jose
Suarez
19.5%+415
Austin
Hays
BALYes112Tyler
Alexander
19.4%+415
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes112Tyler
Alexander
19.4%+415
Julio
Rodriguez
SEAYes103Jose
Suarez
18.9%+430
Jesus
Aguilar
BALYes112Tyler
Alexander
18.7%+435
Mike
Toglia
COLYes109Jakob
Junis
18.4%+445
Ian
Happ
CHCYes92Edward
Cabrera
18.4%+445
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo97Cory
Abbott
18.2%+450
Joey
Meneses
WSHNo97Kyle
Wright
18.2%+450
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes101Corbin
Burnes
18.0%+455
Mookie
Betts
LADNo107Merrill
Kelly
17.8%+460
LaMonte
Wade
Jr
SFYes109Chad
Kuhl
17.8%+465
Joey
Gallo
LADYes102Merrill
Kelly
16.9%+495
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes92Drew
Rasmussen
16.7%+500
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo94Drew
Rasmussen
16.7%+500
Brandon
Crawford
SFYes109Chad
Kuhl
16.4%+510
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes103Jose
Suarez
16.2%+515
Ty
France
SEAYes103Jose
Suarez
16.2%+515
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes101Corbin
Burnes
16.1%+520
Christian
Walker
ARIYes107Clayton
Kershaw
16.0%+525
Joey
Bart
SFNo108Chad
Kuhl
16.0%+525
David
Villar
SFNo108Chad
Kuhl
16.0%+525
Justin
Turner
LADNo107Merrill
Kelly
15.9%+530
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes109Jakob
Junis
15.7%+535
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Sonny
Gray
15.7%+540
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes102Merrill
Kelly
15.6%+545
Max
Muncy
LADYes102Merrill
Kelly
15.6%+545
Jake
Cave
MINYes103Cal
Quantrill
15.0%+565
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes109Chad
Kuhl
15.0%+565
Jose
Miranda
MINNo99Cal
Quantrill
14.9%+570
Dylan
Moore
SEAYes103Jose
Suarez
14.8%+575
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo103Max
Scherzer
14.7%+580
Riley
Adams
WSHNo97Kyle
Wright
14.6%+585
Vaughn
Grissom
ATLNo97Cory
Abbott
14.6%+585
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo94Drew
Rasmussen
14.3%+600
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo94Luis
Garcia
14.3%+600
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMYes101Corbin
Burnes
14.1%+610
Max
Stassi
LAANo103Logan
Gilbert
14.0%+610
Lane
Thomas
WSHNo97Kyle
Wright
14.0%+615
Chris
Taylor
LADNo107Merrill
Kelly
13.8%+625
Will
Smith
LADNo107Merrill
Kelly
13.8%+625
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo90Edward
Cabrera
13.8%+625
David
Peralta
TBYes92Luis
Garcia
13.7%+630
Ramon
Urias
BALYes112Tyler
Alexander
13.5%+640
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes102Merrill
Kelly
13.5%+640
Mike
Ford
LAAYes108Logan
Gilbert
13.4%+645
Jo
Adell
LAANo103Logan
Gilbert
13.3%+650
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo108Jakob
Junis
13.1%+660
Elias
Diaz
COLNo108Jakob
Junis
13.1%+660
Thairo
Estrada
SFNo108Chad
Kuhl
13.1%+660
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo90Edward
Cabrera
13.1%+660
Nelson
Velazquez
CHCNo90Edward
Cabrera
13.1%+660
Riley
Greene
DETYes110Tyler
Wells
12.8%+680
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes101Corbin
Burnes
12.7%+690
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes108Logan
Gilbert
12.6%+690
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo94Drew
Rasmussen
12.3%+710
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes103Sonny
Gray
12.1%+725
Kerry
Carpenter
DETYes110Tyler
Wells
12.1%+730
Javier
Baez
DETNo112Tyler
Wells
12.0%+735
Franmil
Reyes
CHCNo90Edward
Cabrera
11.9%+740
Jorge
Mateo
BALYes112Tyler
Alexander
11.9%+745
Christian
Bethancourt
TBNo94Luis
Garcia
11.7%+755
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes107Clayton
Kershaw
11.4%+775
Carson
Kelly
ARIYes107Clayton
Kershaw
11.4%+775
Jordan
Luplow
ARIYes107Clayton
Kershaw
11.4%+775
Harold
Castro
DETYes110Tyler
Wells
11.2%+790
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo103Max
Scherzer
11.2%+795
Taylor
Ward
LAANo103Logan
Gilbert
11.2%+795
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes109Jakob
Junis
11.2%+795
Abraham
Toro
SEAYes103Jose
Suarez
11.0%+805
Jerar
Encarnacion
MIAYes90Wade
Miley
10.5%+850
Kolten
Wong
MILYes101Max
Scherzer
10.4%+860
Jace
Peterson
MILYes101Max
Scherzer
10.4%+860
Mark
Canha
NYMNo103Corbin
Burnes
10.4%+860
Spencer
Torkelson
DETNo112Tyler
Wells
10.4%+865
Wander
Franco
TBYes92Luis
Garcia
10.3%+870
Gio
Urshela
MINNo99Cal
Quantrill
10.0%+895
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENo99Sonny
Gray
10.0%+895
Nico
Hoerner
CHCNo90Edward
Cabrera
9.9%+910
Luke
Voit
WSHNo97Kyle
Wright
9.9%+915
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Sonny
Gray
9.8%+915
Garrett
Cooper
MIAYes90Wade
Miley
9.8%+920
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes92Drew
Rasmussen
9.6%+940
Trey
Mancini
HOUNo94Drew
Rasmussen
9.6%+945
Jose
Siri
TBNo94Luis
Garcia
9.6%+945
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo94Drew
Rasmussen
9.6%+945
Gunnar
Henderson
BALNo110Tyler
Alexander
9.6%+945
Robbie
Grossman
ATLYes100Cory
Abbott
9.6%+945
Sam
Haggerty
SEAYes103Jose
Suarez
9.4%+965
Luis
Gonzalez
SFNo108Chad
Kuhl
9.2%+985
Alex
Call
WSHNo97Kyle
Wright
9.1%+995
Brian
Anderson
MIAYes90Wade
Miley
9.1%+1005
Bryan
De
La
Cruz
MIAYes90Wade
Miley
9.1%+1005
Zach
McKinstry
CHCYes92Edward
Cabrera
8.9%+1025
J.P.
Crawford
SEANo108Jose
Suarez
8.7%+1045
Luke
Maile
CLENo99Sonny
Gray
8.5%+1070
Brendan
Rodgers
COLNo108Jakob
Junis
8.4%+1090
Alan
Trejo
COLNo108Jakob
Junis
8.4%+1090
Sandy
Leon
MINYes103Cal
Quantrill
8.2%+1120
Matt
Wallner
MINYes103Cal
Quantrill
8.2%+1120
Victor
Reyes
DETYes110Tyler
Wells
7.8%+1180
Nelson
Cruz
WSHNo97Kyle
Wright
7.6%+1215
Yandy
Diaz
TBNo94Luis
Garcia
7.4%+1255
Steven
Kwan
CLEYes103Sonny
Gray
7.4%+1255
Christian
Yelich
MILYes101Max
Scherzer
7.2%+1280
Omar
Narvaez
MILYes101Max
Scherzer
7.2%+1280
Matthew
Duffy
LAANo103Logan
Gilbert
7.2%+1285
Ildemaro
Vargas
WSHYes100Kyle
Wright
7.2%+1295
Amed
Rosario
CLENo99Sonny
Gray
7.0%+1340
Luis
Garcia
WSHNo97Kyle
Wright
6.8%+1365
Charles
Leblanc
MIAYes90Wade
Miley
6.8%+1375
Manuel
Margot
TBNo94Luis
Garcia
6.6%+1410
Harold
Ramirez
TBNo94Luis
Garcia
6.6%+1410
Nick
Gordon
MINYes103Cal
Quantrill
6.5%+1435
Eddie
Rosario
ATLYes100Cory
Abbott
6.3%+1480
Jake
McCarthy
ARINo102Clayton
Kershaw
6.2%+1520
Gilberto
Celestino
MINNo99Cal
Quantrill
6.1%+1530

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