MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 9/15/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
HOUJames
Kaprielian
8.05.0138.6%23.9%13.4%6.9%3.2%
SDDrey
Jameson
9.05.0138.6%23.9%13.4%6.9%3.2%
STLChase
Anderson
8.04.9036.6%22.3%12.3%6.2%2.8%
MINDaniel
Lynch
8.54.7133.3%19.7%10.5%5.1%2.2%
NYMJT
Brubaker
7.54.5530.6%17.5%9.1%4.3%1.8%
CHWHunter
Gaddis
7.54.0622.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
ARISean
Manaea
9.03.9921.3%11.0%5.1%2.1%0.8%
PHIPablo
Lopez
7.53.9420.6%10.5%4.8%2.0%0.7%
KCDylan
Bundy
8.53.7918.3%9.0%4.0%1.6%0.6%
TORShane
McClanahan
7.03.7017.0%8.2%3.5%1.4%0.5%
MIANoah
Syndergaard
7.53.5615.0%7.0%2.9%1.1%0.4%
CLELance
Lynn
7.53.4413.5%6.1%2.4%0.9%0.3%
TBKevin
Gausman
7.03.3011.7%5.1%2.0%0.7%0.2%
CINMiles
Mikolas
8.03.109.4%3.9%1.4%0.5%0.1%
OAKLance
McCullers
8.02.998.3%3.3%1.2%0.4%0.1%
PITCarlos
Carrasco
7.52.957.9%3.1%1.1%0.3%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Shane
McClanahan
TOR7.192.4%83.8%71.4%56.8%41.9%28.7%18.2%
Kevin
Gausman
TB6.790.4%80.2%66.5%51.1%36.3%23.8%14.4%
Carlos
Carrasco
PIT6.084.8%71.4%55.3%39.2%25.5%15.2%8.3%
Lance
McCullers
OAK5.882.9%68.6%52.0%36.0%22.8%13.2%7.0%
Lance
Lynn
CLE5.782.2%67.6%50.8%34.9%21.8%12.5%6.6%
Pablo
Lopez
PHI5.378.0%61.7%44.3%28.9%17.1%9.3%4.6%
Sean
Manaea
ARI5.377.7%61.4%44.0%28.6%16.9%9.1%4.5%
Noah
Syndergaard
MIA4.667.4%48.7%31.4%18.2%9.5%4.5%2.0%
JT
Brubaker
NYM4.565.3%46.2%29.2%16.5%8.4%3.9%1.6%
Miles
Mikolas
CIN4.464.4%45.3%28.3%15.9%8.0%3.7%1.5%
Dylan
Bundy
KC4.261.0%41.6%25.2%13.6%6.6%2.9%1.2%
Drey
Jameson
SD4.259.5%40.0%23.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
Daniel
Lynch
MIN4.056.7%37.1%21.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
James
Kaprielian
HOU3.852.9%33.4%18.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
Hunter
Gaddis
CHW3.547.2%28.2%14.8%6.8%2.8%1.1%0.4%
Chase
Anderson
STL3.137.7%20.4%9.5%3.9%1.4%0.5%0.1%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo91Chase
Anderson
27.0%+270
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes102James
Kaprielian
26.6%+275
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo91Chase
Anderson
26.3%+280
Christian
Walker
ARIYes93Sean
Manaea
23.7%+320
Kyle
Garlick
MINYes98Daniel
Lynch
22.6%+345
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo98Dylan
Bundy
22.1%+355
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Lance
Lynn
21.7%+360
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORYes101Shane
McClanahan
21.5%+365
Manny
Machado
SDNo93Drey
Jameson
21.2%+370
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes102James
Kaprielian
19.9%+405
Salvador
Perez
KCNo98Dylan
Bundy
19.5%+415
Bryce
Harper
PHIYes92Pablo
Lopez
19.4%+415
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes92Pablo
Lopez
19.4%+415
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes103Hunter
Gaddis
19.4%+415
Juan
Soto
SDYes99Drey
Jameson
19.4%+415
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo99Hunter
Gaddis
19.1%+425
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo98JT
Brubaker
18.9%+430
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes95JT
Brubaker
18.8%+430
Rodolfo
Castro
PITYes95Carlos
Carrasco
18.8%+430
Seth
Brown
OAKYes102Lance
McCullers
18.7%+435
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORYes101Shane
McClanahan
18.6%+440
Albert
Pujols
STLNo91Chase
Anderson
18.4%+445
Tyler
O'Neill
STLNo91Chase
Anderson
18.4%+445
Jack
Suwinski
PITYes95Carlos
Carrasco
18.3%+445
Isaac
Paredes
TBNo101Kevin
Gausman
18.2%+450
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo101James
Kaprielian
18.2%+450
Gary
Sanchez
MINYes98Daniel
Lynch
17.5%+470
Tyler
Naquin
NYMYes95JT
Brubaker
17.1%+485
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo101James
Kaprielian
17.0%+485
Jose
Miranda
MINYes98Daniel
Lynch
16.9%+490
Nick
Maton
PHIYes92Pablo
Lopez
16.7%+500
Josh
Bell
SDYes99Drey
Jameson
16.5%+505
MJ
Melendez
KCYes99Dylan
Bundy
16.5%+505
Danny
Jansen
TORYes101Shane
McClanahan
16.0%+525
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo101James
Kaprielian
15.8%+535
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo101Kevin
Gausman
15.8%+535
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo101James
Kaprielian
15.8%+535
Aristides
Aquino
CINNo91Miles
Mikolas
15.7%+540
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo99Hunter
Gaddis
15.5%+545
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo90Pablo
Lopez
15.0%+570
Carson
Kelly
ARIYes93Sean
Manaea
14.9%+570
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes95Carlos
Carrasco
14.7%+580
Bo
Bichette
TORYes101Shane
McClanahan
14.6%+585
Jordan
Luplow
ARIYes93Sean
Manaea
14.3%+600
Emmanuel
Rivera
ARIYes93Sean
Manaea
14.3%+600
Stone
Garrett
ARIYes93Sean
Manaea
14.3%+600
Jake
Fraley
CINYes97Miles
Mikolas
14.3%+600
Carlos
Correa
MINYes98Daniel
Lynch
14.2%+605
Matt
Chapman
TORYes101Shane
McClanahan
13.9%+620
Nick
Pratto
KCYes99Dylan
Bundy
13.8%+620
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes93Sean
Manaea
13.6%+635
Tommy
Edman
STLYes97Chase
Anderson
13.6%+635
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo99Hunter
Gaddis
13.6%+635
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENo99Lance
Lynn
13.6%+635
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes95Carlos
Carrasco
13.4%+650
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCYes99Dylan
Bundy
13.2%+660
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo90Pablo
Lopez
13.1%+660
George
Springer
TORYes101Shane
McClanahan
13.1%+660
Brandon
Marsh
PHIYes92Pablo
Lopez
13.0%+670
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMYes95JT
Brubaker
12.7%+685
Daulton
Varsho
ARINo99Sean
Manaea
12.5%+700
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes99Drey
Jameson
12.5%+705
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes97Chase
Anderson
12.2%+715
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo99Hunter
Gaddis
12.2%+720
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes103Hunter
Gaddis
12.1%+725
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes103Lance
Lynn
12.1%+725
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Lance
Lynn
12.1%+725
Jonathan
India
CINNo91Miles
Mikolas
12.0%+735
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo101Lance
McCullers
11.7%+755
Alejandro
Kirk
TORYes101Shane
McClanahan
11.6%+760
Elvis
Andrus
CHWNo99Hunter
Gaddis
11.5%+770
Josh
Harrison
CHWNo99Hunter
Gaddis
11.5%+770
Michael
Chavis
PITNo98Carlos
Carrasco
11.4%+775
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes95JT
Brubaker
11.3%+785
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo90Noah
Syndergaard
11.2%+790
Amed
Rosario
CLENo99Lance
Lynn
10.8%+830
Jake
McCarthy
ARINo99Sean
Manaea
10.6%+840
Stephen
Vogt
OAKYes102Lance
McCullers
10.5%+850
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes99Drey
Jameson
10.3%+875
Drew
Waters
KCYes99Dylan
Bundy
10.3%+875
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUNo101James
Kaprielian
10.2%+880
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes95JT
Brubaker
9.9%+910
Gio
Urshela
MINYes98Daniel
Lynch
9.8%+925
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo101James
Kaprielian
9.5%+955
Trey
Mancini
HOUNo101James
Kaprielian
9.5%+955
TJ
Friedl
CINYes97Miles
Mikolas
9.3%+975
Bryan
De
La
Cruz
MIANo90Noah
Syndergaard
9.2%+985
Michael
Taylor
KCNo98Dylan
Bundy
9.2%+985
David
Peralta
TBYes94Kevin
Gausman
9.1%+1005
Corey
Dickerson
STLYes97Chase
Anderson
8.6%+1070
Ke'Bryan
Hayes
PITNo98Carlos
Carrasco
8.5%+1085
Wander
Franco
TBYes94Kevin
Gausman
8.3%+1105
JJ
Bleday
MIAYes92Noah
Syndergaard
8.1%+1125
Cody
Thomas
OAKYes102Lance
McCullers
8.1%+1130
Jose
Azocar
SDNo93Drey
Jameson
8.1%+1140
Michael
Massey
KCYes99Dylan
Bundy
7.9%+1165
Ramon
Laureano
OAKNo101Lance
McCullers
7.9%+1165
Shea
Langeliers
OAKNo101Lance
McCullers
7.9%+1165
Brian
Anderson
MIANo90Noah
Syndergaard
7.8%+1180
Alec
Bohm
PHINo90Pablo
Lopez
7.8%+1180
Mark
Canha
NYMNo98JT
Brubaker
7.7%+1205
Wil
Myers
SDNo93Drey
Jameson
7.3%+1265
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDNo93Drey
Jameson
7.3%+1265
Spencer
Steer
CINNo91Miles
Mikolas
7.2%+1295
Brendan
Donovan
STLYes97Chase
Anderson
7.0%+1335
Steven
Kwan
CLEYes103Lance
Lynn
6.5%+1435

Related News

MLB Betting Guide for Friday 8/11/23: The Wrong Team Is Favored at Fenway Park

Austin Swaim  --  Sep 15th, 2022

3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 8/11/23

Thomas Vecchio  --  Sep 15th, 2022

MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 8/10/23: 3 Unders on a Slate with Dodgy Weather

Austin Swaim  --  Sep 15th, 2022