MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 9/15/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Marlins Moneyline (+114): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
I'm always intrigued when an underdog has the pitching advantage, and that's what we have here with the Miami Marlins sending Pablo Lopez to the bump while the Philadelphia Phillies start Noah Syndergaard.
Syndergaard is striking out just 17.0% of hitters this season and owns a 4.39 SIERA -- both of those are career-worst marks for him. He's been especially bad since being dealt to the Phils, recording an ugly 4.71 SIERA and 13.2% strikeout rate across 41 innings.
Lopez is turning in another quality campaign. He's showing a 3.78 SIERA and 23.6% strikeout rate. While the strikeout rate is actually his lowest since 2019, his 12.9% swinging-strike rate is a career-best mark, so he's due for an uptick in punchouts.
We have this game as basically a 50-50 coin-flip, giving the Marlins a 49.8% chance to emerge victorious. Their +114 moneyline price implies win odds of just 46.7%. There's value in backing Miami to win, and we rate it as a one-star bet (one-unit recommendation).
Over 8.0 (-115): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
We project the St. Louis Cardinals to do the heavy lifting to get this game past the 8.0-run total.
The Red Birds are facing veteran righty Chase Anderson. Anderson has spent most of 2022 in Triple-A, and he struggled there, posting a 5.22 xFIP in 70 frames with the Detroit Tigers' Triple-A squad. Since the start of 2021, he's thrown 57 innings in the bigs and has registered a 5.24 SIERA and 18.0% strikeout rate while surrendering 2.05 dingers per nine.
Anderson should be in a world of hurt tonight versus St. Louis, a team that ranks second in wOBA (.330) for the season. We have the Cardinals plating 5.64 runs.
Since coming back to the bigs in 2018, Mikolas has found a way to get it done despite pitching to contact. This season is no different as he boasts a 3.98 SIERA despite a lowly 18.7% strikeout rate. But he's hit a rough patch of late, giving up at least three earned runs in three of his past four starts, including four earned runs and three homers to the Reds back on August 29th. We project Cincy to push across 4.04 runs.
So, in all, we see a total of 9.68 runs being scored in this one. We give the over a 60.0% chance to cash and mark it was a three-star wager.