MLB

MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 9/15/22

Thomas Vecchio  —  @DFS_Tom Sep 15th, 2022

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Paul Goldschmidt To Hit a Home Run (+300)/Nolan Arenado To Hit a Home Run (+320)

The St. Louis Cardinals have a solid 4.90 implied run total and a truly great matchup.

They could be getting some of those runs via the long ball versus Chase Anderson. This season, Anderson only has 9.0 innings pitched and has fewer than 50.0 innings pitched in each of the last two seasons. The 2019 season was his last full one in MLB.

If we look at his stats from 2019-2022, Anderson has allowed a 5.11 xFIP, .571 SLG, .387 wOBA, 2.30 HR/9, 42.2% fly-ball rate, and 40.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. There's a reason Anderson has been on four different teams in the last four years -- he's not a good pitcher.

This puts the righties from the Cardinals in a phenomenal spot, and we want to look directly to some player props. Starting off with the future National League MVP, Paul Goldschmidt, he comes in with a 160 wRC+, .396 wOBA, .241 ISO, 40.9% fly-ball rate, and 33.8% hard-contact rate versus righties.

Next up is Nolan Arenado, who comes in with a 152 wRC+, .385 wOBA, .223 ISO, 45.6% fly-ball rate, and 32.1% hard-contact rate in the split.

It's as straightforward of a matchup as you can imagine, so I'm also adding Goldschmidt To Record an RBI (+105) and Arenado To Record an RBI (+100).

Gio Urshela To Record 2+ Total Bases (-115)

The Minnesota Twins are another team with a great matchup for some offense tonight.

With a 4.71 implied run total and some wind blowing out, the bats from the Twins should be on full display in a favorable spot. They will be taking Daniel Lynch, who comes in with a .452 SLG, .347 wOBA, 4.25 xFIP, 1.44 HR/9, 39.0% fly-ball rate, and 38.9% hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters.

Those are some rough numbers to be sporting when the game is going to have some wind blowing out. The fly balls could lead to plenty of extra bases for the Twins hitters.

We turn to Gio Urshela, who is rocking a 116 wRC+, .328 wOBA, .164 ISO, 35.5% fly-ball rate, and 38.3% hard-contact rate versus left-handers. Urshela should be hitting in the clean-up spot, giving him plenty of chances at the dish.