FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 9/14/22
It's a fairly thin slate for pitching, but we do have one ace up top who stands out above the rest. You can make the case for several teams for stacks, though implied totals are fairly muted across the board.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Corbin Burnes ($11,000): If we take a quick glance at tonight's list of pitchers, Burnes immediately stands out as the slate's top talent, and that's reflected by his distinction as the only player with a salary cracking $10,000.
However, he also has an unforgiving matchup against the Cardinals. Against righties, St. Louis' active roster owns the third-best wRC+ (116) and fourth-best strikeout rate (20.1%). Burnes will have his work cut out for him, and it's not like he's been the most consistent pitcher of late.
The good news is he's coming off one of his best starts of the season, a 14-strikeout performance against the Giants that resulted in 73 FanDuel points. Burnes has also been quite successful against these Cards in 2022, racking up 64, 61, and 40 FanDuel points against them.
His season-long marks remain stellar, too, with a 2.91 SIERA, 31.3% strikeout rate, and 6.7% walk rate.
Despite the quality opponent, Burnes still rates as one of the top plays on the board, and it doesn't hurt to see St. Louis showing a 3.37 implied total.
While the Cubbies have a predominantly right-handed active roster, they've posted a 95 wRC+ and league-worst 26.7% strikeout rate versus southpaws.
Peterson hasn't exactly been the most trustworthy start -- hence his modest salary -- but he has plenty of positives in his profile through a 3.51 SIERA, 27.6% strikeout rate, and 51.2% ground-ball rate. Workload isn't typically an issue, either, as the Mets will allow him to crack 100 pitches when needed.
The downside is that the left-hander also comes with a 10.1% walk rate, and that typically gets in the way of him pitching deep into games.
Still, the salary and matchup put Peterson firmly on the radar, and he's the top value play this evening.
Sonny Gray ($8,700): Gray is another possible value option, as he's produced a solid-if-unspectacular 3.77 SIERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, and 7.5% walk rate, and this spot against the Royals is a good one.
Kansas City's active roster has a 99 wRC+ and 23.1% strikeout rate versus righties, and their implied total sits at just 3.19.
The trouble with Gray is that his pitch counts tend to max out at the mid-to-low 90s, and the Twins sometimes aren't afraid to pull him sooner even when he's cruising. He hasn't exceeded six innings since the end of June, so we probably can't reasonably expect him to go beyond that tonight.
Gray did pop for 10 strikeouts and 58 FanDuel points against KC last month, though, so there's still a path to upside.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 23 starts, Davies has put up a 4.59 SIERA, 18.2% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate, and 43.8% ground-ball rate. Not exactly the stuff of nightmares for opposing batters. He can be attacked by both sides of the plate, but he has particularly meh numbers when facing lefties, as he's posted a mere 5.12 xFIP, 12.8% strikeout rate, and 9.7% walk rate in the split.
Davies has roughly league-average marks in same-sided matchups, and he's giving up dingers at a fairly high clip, so don't hesitate to roster the Dodgers' usual right-handed studs, as well.
Since joining Oakland at the trade deadline, the 26-year-old lefty has made six starts and produced a middling 4.78 xFIP, 14.6% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate, and 42.6% ground-ball rate. He's coming off a shellacking at the hands of the White Sox that included three dingers allowed, and we're hoping for a similar result for the Rangers.
Any Texas stack should naturally start with the righties who have the platoon advantage, and that leads us to Marcus Semien ($3,700) and Adolis Garcia ($3,500). Both players have cracked 20 dingers and 20 swiped bags this season.
Mark Mathias ($2,900) has performed well in limited time, and top prospect Josh Jung ($2,800) has shown promising power since getting called up. They should both bat in the top two-thirds of the order to give us a pair of righty value options.
Corbin continues to slog through a forgettable 2022 season, and while some of it has been due to an unlucky .364 BABIP, he's simply getting pummeled for home runs on a regular basis. Right-handed batters are generating a 34.8% fly-ball rate and 40.9% hard-hit rate, and they've converted that into 1.94 home runs per nine innings. Add in an 18.3% strikeout rate in the split, and it's easy to see why Corbin is struggling.
The Orioles should have a lineup of almost entirely righties, so they can cash in on this money spot. Not a single player has a high salary, so it's easy to grab the meat of the order in Anthony Santander ($2,900), Ryan Mountcastle ($2,700), and Ramon Urias ($2,700), and we should also get Ryan McKenna ($2,100) batting ahead of them as a punt leadoff man.