FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 9/13/22
We have a strong stable of pitchers taking the mound, but it will be difficult to pass on Jacob deGrom, particularly with many of the top stacks showing so much value tonight.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Jacob deGrom ($12,000): Excluding his first start when he threw under 60 pitches, we've now seen deGrom log at least eight strikeouts in each of his last six starts with scores of 53, 58, 42, 52, 55, and 55 FanDuel points. For the season, he's produced an absurd 1.63 SIERA, 41.2% strikeout rate, and 2.6% walk rate.
Pretty much the only thing that's held him back at all this year is pitch count, and he's now cracked 90 pitches in three of his last four.
To top it all off, he has a delightful matchup against the Cubs tonight. Chicago's active roster owns the third-highest strikeout rate versus righties (25.4%), so it wouldn't be the least bit surprising if deGrom can rack up double-digit punchouts. The Cubs also have the slate's lowest implied total (2.23) by a pretty wide margin.
We're paying a premium salary to roster deGrom, but there's no question that he's absolutely worth it.
Gerrit Cole ($11,100): Barring a rare misstep from deGrom, chances are we're going to need an elite showing from our pitcher to hang in non-deGrom lineups.
While Cole hasn't been terribly consistent this summer, his ceiling remains incredible when he's at his best. Case in point, Cole has tallied double-digit punchouts in two of his last three starts, resulting in 62 and 69 FanDuel points.
For the season, the veteran right-hander has amassed a 2.79 SIERA, 32.1% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate over 28 starts. He'll give up the occasional long ball here and there, but it's hard to otherwise scrutinize his 2022 profile.
The workload is never an issue for him, too. He's exceeded 100 pitches in 13 of his last 15 outings.
Cole will face a familiar foe in the Red Sox, and it's not the best matchup for strikeouts. Boston's active roster has just a 20.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching. However, this is otherwise a middle-of-the-pack offense, and we know that Cole doesn't need much assistance to rack up the Ks.
While some of the faces in this lineup are different now, the Yankees' ace mowed down the Sox for 12 strikeouts and 61 FanDuel points back in July.
Joe Ryan ($8,900): For a value play, Ryan stands out in a fantastic spot against the Royals. Kansas City's active roster isn't exactly littered with household names these days, and it enters the night with a 90 wRC+ and 23.2% strikeout rate against right-handers.
Ryan's experienced an up-and-down 2022 campaign, but it ultimately has amounted to a solid 4.09 SIERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, and 7.6% walk rate. The trouble has been home runs, as he's coughed up 1.47 per nine innings, and that probably isn't a fluke given his minuscule 26.6% ground-ball rate.
Luckily, dingers shouldn't be as much of a problem against a Royals team with a modest .146 ISO versus righties, and Target Field isn't a particularly great venue for hitting home runs.
Ryan has also upped his strikeout rate to 28.2% since the All-Star break, which is encouraging for his upside. He often struggles to pitch deep into games, but he does have quality starts in two of his last four and is capable of logging 100-plus pitches.
Note that Ryan has a significantly higher strikeout rate in same-sided matchups (30.5%) compared to lefties (17.5%), so he'll be much more appealing if Kansas City doesn't go too lefty-heavy tonight.
Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox have been incredibly underwhelming against right-handed pitching this season, so it's telling when they have a slate-high 4.89 implied total against Chad Kuhl. Kuhl has been getting roughed up this season, and it isn't just because of Coors Field. He actually has a higher ERA on the road.
Overall, the right-hander comes in with a 4.87 SIERA, 17.7% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate, and 35.9% ground-ball rate. He's giving up dingers to both sides of the plate, and even a team like the White Sox should be able to take advantage.
The other great thing about stacking Chicago is that their low salaries make them an ideal pairing with deGrom or Cole.
Other than Jose Abreu ($3,200) and Eloy Jimenez ($3,200), everyone else has salaries below $3,000. Jimenez is the top power threat, owning a .196 ISO while piling up barrels at a team-high high clip. Abreu may not be hitting as many round-trippers this year, but he's been one of their top overall hitters with a 140 wRC+.
As for all that value, Elvis Andrus ($2,900) and Yoan Moncada ($2,500) are locked into the top two lineup spots, while guys like Gavin Sheets ($2,600), A.J. Pollock ($2,900), and Andrew Vaughn ($2,600) give us some punch lower in the order.
New York Yankees
Don't look now, but the Yankees have now scored 10 runs in back-to-back games, and perhaps, they're coming around as they get healthier for the home stretch.
Nick Pivetta has had his moments this year, but he has a pretty pedestrian 22.4% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate, and 38.3% ground-ball rate. He's still someone who often struggles with walks, and while he hasn't allowed quite as many homers, he still looks like someone we can attack in that regard, as well.
Despite giving up just 1.07 home runs per nine innings to right-handed hitters, he's displaying a 41.5% fly-ball rate and 36.6% hard-hit rate in the split. Given that he's had home-run issues throughout his career, he could simply be getting lucky in this department. His 10.0% homer-to-fly-ball rate against righties is far below his career average (16.2%).
That suggests that New York's slew of righty sticks could capitalize here, and that naturally begins with Aaron Judge ($5,000) and Giancarlo Stanton ($2,700) up top. It sure looks like Stanton has emerged from his slump after slugging home runs in each of his last two games.
We'll highlight the Twins here, who will take their hacks against left-hander Kris Bubic. Bubic has a lackluster 4.94 SIERA, 17.5% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate, and 41.4% ground-ball rate. It's easy to see why Minnesota has one of the slate's better implied totals (4.80).
Carlos Correa ($3,800) is the lone Minnesota batters cracking $3,000, and most are well below that threshold. In addition to Correa, Kyle Garlick ($2,200), Jose Miranda ($2,800), Gio Urshela ($2,100), and Gary Sanchez ($2,100) should occupy the first five slots in the lineup, showing just how little salary you'll need for the full stack.
Note that Bubic has curiously struggled against lefties in his career (5.91 xFIP), so you also shouldn't hesitate to roster any left-handed batters who crack the lineup.