MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 9/13/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Angels Moneyline (+118): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Since a nightmare start against the Los Angeles Dodgers back on July 16th, Suarez has been on fire, giving up only eight earned runs over his last 41 innings (seven starts). He's pieced together four scoreless outings in that span while recording a 23.9% strikeout rate and 12.6% swinging-strike rate. He can keep it rolling against a Cleveland Guardians offense that is 24th in wOBA (.291) over the last 30 days.
Rookie Cody Morris is up for Cleveland. Morris is the latest intriguing arm to come out of the Guardians' system. He posted gaudy strikeout rates across every minor-league stop in 2021, and in a brief 15 1/3-inning stay in Triple-A this year, he amassed an eye-popping 51.7% strikeout rate.
However, Morris is a wild card right now due to a lack of innings down on the farm in 2022, and through his first 10 career MLB frames, he's struggled with walks (10.7% rate) and loud contact (45.0% hard-hit rate and 40.0% fly-ball rate).
Our model agrees that the Guardians should be slim favorites, but we like the Halos a little more than oddsmakers do. We project the Angels to win this game 47.4% of the time, while their +118 moneyline price implies win odds of 45.9%. It's not much, but there is a slice of value in taking Los Angeles to win, which we mark as a one-star play (one-unit recommendation).
Over 8.5 (-104): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
A's Moneyline (+122): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Waldichuk is one of the key pieces the Oakland Athletics got back when they dealt Frankie Montas. Waldichuk dazzled across Double- and Triple-A with the New York Yankees, and he did much of the same with Oakland's Triple-A squad.
However, he's got only 10 MLB frames under his belt, and they haven't gone super well, as he owns a 4.76 SIERA and 18.6% strikeout rate. While the future is bright, Waldichuk, a left-hander, should have some issues today against Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia and company. We project the Texas Rangers to score 5.16 runs.
We like the Oakland offense to do even more damage versus Ragans.
Across his initial 21 1/2 MLB innings, Ragans has struggled to a 6.17 SIERA, 12.9% strikeout rate and 14.0% walk rate. Big yikes. He had a 4.74 xFIP in Triple-A before getting the call. Oakland got to him for three earned runs in five frames back on August 17th, and Ragans just doesn't look ready for The Show right now. We think the A's plate 5.54 runs in this one.
We see value on the over and on the A's.
In all, we have 10.70 runs coming across to score. With the over/under at 8.5 runs, we give the over a 68.3% chance to win out and mark it as a four-star bet.
We hand the underdog Athletics win odds of 51.7%. With Oakland priced at +122 on the moneyline, taking the A's to win is a two-star wager.