MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 9/12/22

Betting MLB player props or playing daily fantasy baseball? See who is most likely to homer, rack up the most strikeouts, and score the most runs today.

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
LADRyne
Nelson
9.05.3143.8%28.4%16.8%9.0%4.5%
NYMJavier
Assad
8.04.9237.0%22.6%12.5%6.3%2.9%
CINBryse
Wilson
9.04.7634.2%20.4%11.0%5.4%2.4%
HOUEduardo
Rodriguez
7.54.3326.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
PITMike
Minor
9.04.2425.3%13.7%6.7%2.9%1.2%
CLEReid
Detmers
8.04.2225.0%13.5%6.5%2.9%1.1%
ATLAlex
Cobb
7.03.9019.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
LAAKonnor
Pilkington
8.03.7818.1%8.9%3.9%1.6%0.6%
ARITyler
Anderson
9.03.6916.8%8.1%3.5%1.3%0.5%
MIAGlenn
Otto
7.03.6816.7%8.0%3.4%1.3%0.5%
TEXTrevor
Rogers
7.03.3212.0%5.2%2.0%0.7%0.2%
DETFramber
Valdez
7.53.1710.2%4.3%1.6%0.5%0.2%
SFSpencer
Strider
7.03.109.4%3.9%1.4%0.5%0.1%
CHCChris
Bassitt
8.03.089.2%3.8%1.4%0.4%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Chris
Bassitt
CHC7.393.1%85.0%73.2%59.0%44.1%30.7%19.8%
Framber
Valdez
DET6.387.6%75.7%60.6%44.7%30.3%18.9%10.9%
Jon
Gray
MIA6.185.9%73.1%57.3%41.3%27.3%16.5%9.2%
Spencer
Strider
SF5.984.2%70.5%54.3%38.2%24.6%14.6%7.9%
Alex
Cobb
ATL5.782.0%67.3%50.5%34.6%21.6%12.3%6.5%
Jose
Berrios
TB5.579.5%63.8%46.6%30.9%18.7%10.3%5.2%
Reid
Detmers
CLE5.579.4%63.6%46.4%30.8%18.6%10.2%5.2%
Braxton
Garrett
TEX5.276.6%59.9%42.4%27.2%15.8%8.4%4.1%
Tyler
Anderson
ARI5.275.5%58.5%41.0%26.0%15.0%7.8%3.8%
Trevor
Rogers
TEX5.073.9%56.5%38.9%24.2%13.7%7.0%3.3%
Ryne
Nelson
LAD4.871.2%53.1%35.6%21.5%11.7%5.8%2.6%
Mike
Minor
PIT4.769.0%50.5%33.2%19.5%10.4%5.0%2.2%
Konnor
Pilkington
LAA4.566.4%47.5%30.4%17.4%9.0%4.2%1.8%
Glenn
Otto
MIA4.463.5%44.3%27.5%15.3%7.6%3.5%1.4%
Eduardo
Rodriguez
HOU4.260.8%41.4%25.0%13.5%6.5%2.9%1.1%
Jalen
Beeks
TOR3.852.7%33.2%18.4%9.1%4.0%1.6%0.6%
Javier
Assad
NYM3.750.8%31.5%17.1%8.3%3.6%1.4%0.5%
Bryse
Wilson
CIN3.138.2%20.7%9.8%4.0%1.5%0.5%0.2%
Cooper
Criswell
TOR1.811.4%3.9%1.1%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes111Mike
Minor
27.0%+270
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo98Javier
Assad
23.0%+335
Mookie
Betts
LADNo93Ryne
Nelson
22.2%+350
Trea
Turner
LADNo93Ryne
Nelson
22.2%+350
Rodolfo
Castro
PITYes111Mike
Minor
21.8%+360
Corey
Seager
TEXNo92Trevor
Rogers
20.9%+380
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUNo94Eduardo
Rodriguez
20.8%+380
TJ
Friedl
CINYes113Bryse
Wilson
20.2%+395
Matt
Chapman
TORYes101Jalen
Beeks
19.8%+405
Matt
Olson
ATLYes87Alex
Cobb
19.6%+410
Jose
Altuve
HOUYes99Eduardo
Rodriguez
19.5%+415
Mike
Trout
LAAYes99Konnor
Pilkington
19.5%+415
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo101Jose
Berrios
18.8%+430
Will
Smith
LADNo93Ryne
Nelson
18.7%+435
Oneil
Cruz
PITNo113Mike
Minor
18.7%+435
Christian
Walker
ARIYes93Tyler
Anderson
18.6%+440
Jeremy
Pena
HOUYes99Eduardo
Rodriguez
18.3%+445
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORYes101Jalen
Beeks
17.9%+455
Bo
Bichette
TORYes101Jalen
Beeks
17.9%+455
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes95Javier
Assad
17.1%+485
Tyler
Naquin
NYMYes95Javier
Assad
17.1%+485
Trayce
Thompson
LADNo93Ryne
Nelson
17.1%+485
Max
Muncy
LADYes99Ryne
Nelson
17.1%+485
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes99Ryne
Nelson
17.1%+485
Marcus
Semien
TEXYes90Braxton
Garrett
17.0%+490
Corey
Seager
TEXNo92Braxton
Garrett
16.9%+490
Jake
Fraley
CINYes113Bryse
Wilson
16.9%+490
Kyle
Tucker
HOUNo94Eduardo
Rodriguez
16.7%+500
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes95Javier
Assad
16.5%+505
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMYes95Javier
Assad
16.5%+505
Joc
Pederson
SFYes87Spencer
Strider
16.5%+505
Brandon
Lowe
TBYes94Jose
Berrios
16.4%+510
Emmanuel
Rivera
ARIYes93Tyler
Anderson
16.2%+515
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo90Spencer
Strider
16.1%+520
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes95Javier
Assad
15.9%+530
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes99Ryne
Nelson
15.8%+530
Joey
Gallo
LADYes99Ryne
Nelson
15.8%+530
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes99Reid
Detmers
15.7%+535
Nick
Fortes
MIANo90Jon
Gray
15.5%+545
Adolis
Garcia
TEXYes90Trevor
Rogers
15.2%+560
Christian
Bethancourt
TBNo101Jose
Berrios
15.1%+560
Alex
Bregman
HOUYes99Eduardo
Rodriguez
15.0%+565
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo111Bryse
Wilson
14.9%+570
Josh
Naylor
CLENo103Reid
Detmers
14.7%+580
Danny
Jansen
TORYes101Jalen
Beeks
14.6%+585
Jo
Adell
LAAYes99Konnor
Pilkington
14.4%+595
Michael
Chavis
PITYes111Mike
Minor
14.2%+605
Aristides
Aquino
CINNo111Bryse
Wilson
14.2%+605
Sam
Huff
TEXYes90Trevor
Rogers
13.9%+620
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLNo90Alex
Cobb
13.8%+625
Carson
Kelly
ARIYes93Tyler
Anderson
13.6%+635
Shohei
Ohtani
LAANo103Konnor
Pilkington
13.5%+640
Jonathan
India
CINNo111Bryse
Wilson
13.5%+645
Marcus
Semien
TEXYes90Trevor
Rogers
13.3%+655
George
Springer
TORYes101Jalen
Beeks
13.1%+660
LaMonte
Wade
Jr
SFYes87Spencer
Strider
13.0%+665
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes87Alex
Cobb
13.0%+665
Martin
Maldonado
HOUYes99Eduardo
Rodriguez
12.9%+675
Taylor
Ward
LAAYes99Konnor
Pilkington
12.9%+675
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXNo92Braxton
Garrett
12.8%+680
Ian
Happ
CHCYes95Chris
Bassitt
12.7%+685
Spencer
Steer
CINNo111Bryse
Wilson
12.7%+690
Ben
Gamel
PITNo113Mike
Minor
12.6%+690
Mark
Mathias
TEXYes90Trevor
Rogers
12.6%+695
Avisail
Garcia
MIANo90Glenn
Otto
12.5%+700
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes99Framber
Valdez
12.2%+720
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes99Konnor
Pilkington
12.2%+720
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLEYes99Reid
Detmers
12.2%+720
Kerry
Carpenter
DETNo94Framber
Valdez
11.9%+740
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes90Braxton
Garrett
11.9%+740
Andres
Gimenez
CLENo103Reid
Detmers
11.7%+760
Max
Stassi
LAAYes99Konnor
Pilkington
11.4%+775
Eric
Haase
DETYes99Framber
Valdez
11.4%+775
Avisail
Garcia
MIANo90Jon
Gray
11.2%+790
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo90Jon
Gray
11.2%+790
Austin
Riley
ATLNo90Alex
Cobb
11.2%+790
David
Peralta
TBYes94Jose
Berrios
11.2%+790
JJ
Bleday
MIAYes92Glenn
Otto
11.0%+810
Santiago
Espinal
TORYes101Jalen
Beeks
10.8%+820
Stone
Garrett
ARIYes93Tyler
Anderson
10.8%+825
Franmil
Reyes
CHCNo98Chris
Bassitt
10.7%+835
Brian
Anderson
MIANo90Glenn
Otto
10.6%+845
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo90Alex
Cobb
10.6%+845
Alek
Thomas
ARINo99Tyler
Anderson
10.0%+900
Mark
Canha
NYMNo98Javier
Assad
10.0%+905
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo90Alex
Cobb
9.9%+910
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo90Glenn
Otto
9.9%+910
Brian
Anderson
MIANo90Jon
Gray
9.9%+910
Joey
Bart
SFNo90Spencer
Strider
9.9%+910
Jeff
McNeil
NYMYes95Javier
Assad
9.9%+910
Mauricio
Dubon
HOUYes99Eduardo
Rodriguez
9.9%+915
Owen
Miller
CLEYes99Reid
Detmers
9.9%+915
Josh
Jung
TEXYes90Trevor
Rogers
9.8%+920
Justin
Turner
LADNo93Ryne
Nelson
9.5%+955
Harold
Ramirez
TBNo101Jose
Berrios
9.5%+955
Alejandro
Kirk
TORYes101Jalen
Beeks
9.2%+985
Nico
Hoerner
CHCNo98Chris
Bassitt
9.2%+985
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo98Chris
Bassitt
9.2%+985
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes87Spencer
Strider
9.1%+995
Jonathan
Schoop
DETYes99Framber
Valdez
9.1%+1005
Javier
Baez
DETYes99Framber
Valdez
9.1%+1005
Yandy
Diaz
TBNo101Jose
Berrios
8.7%+1050
Jose
Siri
TBNo101Jose
Berrios
8.7%+1050
David
Villar
SFNo90Spencer
Strider
8.5%+1070
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCNo98Chris
Bassitt
8.5%+1085
Adolis
Garcia
TEXYes90Braxton
Garrett
8.3%+1105
Trey
Mancini
HOUYes99Eduardo
Rodriguez
8.2%+1115
Andrew
Velazquez
LAAYes99Konnor
Pilkington
8.2%+1115
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXNo92Trevor
Rogers
8.2%+1125
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes93Tyler
Anderson
7.8%+1185
Lewin
Diaz
MIAYes92Glenn
Otto
7.4%+1250
Austin
Hedges
CLEYes99Reid
Detmers
7.4%+1255
Spencer
Torkelson
DETYes99Framber
Valdez
7.4%+1255
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo90Alex
Cobb
7.1%+1310
Miguel
Rojas
MIANo90Glenn
Otto
7.1%+1310
Charles
Leblanc
MIANo90Jon
Gray
7.1%+1310
Manuel
Margot
TBNo101Jose
Berrios
7.1%+1310
Brandon
Crawford
SFYes87Spencer
Strider
7.0%+1325
Mike
Ford
LAANo103Konnor
Pilkington
7.0%+1340
Steven
Kwan
CLENo103Reid
Detmers
7.0%+1340
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes90Trevor
Rogers
6.8%+1375
Bryan
De
La
Cruz
MIANo90Jon
Gray
6.4%+1470
Jason
Delay
PITYes111Mike
Minor
6.3%+1490