MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 9/8/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | Josiah Gray | 7.5 | 4.53 | 30.2% | 17.3% | 8.9% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| MIL | Scott Alexander | 7.5 | 4.28 | 26.0% | 14.2% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| CHC | Luis Cessa | 8.0 | 4.26 | 25.7% | 13.9% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| CHW | JP Sears | 7.0 | 3.99 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| CIN | Adrian Sampson | 8.0 | 3.74 | 17.6% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| NYY | Sonny Gray | 7.0 | 3.72 | 17.3% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| PHI | Sandy Alcantara | 7.0 | 3.66 | 16.4% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| MIA | Kyle Gibson | 7.0 | 3.34 | 12.2% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| MIN | Nestor Cortes | 7.0 | 3.28 | 11.5% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| SF | Corbin Burnes | 7.5 | 3.22 | 10.8% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| OAK | Dylan Cease | 7.0 | 3.01 | 8.5% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| WSH | Adam Wainwright | 7.5 | 2.97 | 8.1% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | SF | 7.2 | 92.6% | 84.1% | 71.9% | 57.4% | 42.5% | 29.2% | 18.6% |
| Dylan Cease | OAK | 7.1 | 92.5% | 83.9% | 71.6% | 56.9% | 42.1% | 28.8% | 18.3% |
| Sandy Alcantara | PHI | 5.9 | 84.2% | 70.4% | 54.1% | 38.1% | 24.5% | 14.5% | 7.9% |
| Adam Wainwright | WSH | 5.9 | 83.6% | 69.6% | 53.2% | 37.1% | 23.7% | 13.9% | 7.5% |
| Nestor Cortes | MIN | 5.8 | 83.0% | 68.7% | 52.2% | 36.2% | 22.9% | 13.3% | 7.1% |
| Freddy Peralta | SF | 5.4 | 79.0% | 63.1% | 45.9% | 30.3% | 18.2% | 10.0% | 5.0% |
| Josiah Gray | STL | 5.2 | 75.5% | 58.5% | 41.0% | 26.0% | 15.0% | 7.8% | 3.8% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIA | 4.9 | 72.2% | 54.4% | 36.8% | 22.5% | 12.4% | 6.2% | 2.9% |
| Sonny Gray | NYY | 4.7 | 68.2% | 49.6% | 32.3% | 18.9% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| Sean Hjelle | MIL | 4.5 | 64.9% | 45.8% | 28.9% | 16.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Adrian Sampson | CIN | 4.1 | 57.6% | 38.1% | 22.3% | 11.6% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| JP Sears | CHW | 3.8 | 52.9% | 33.4% | 18.6% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Luis Cessa | CHC | 3.2 | 38.9% | 21.2% | 10.1% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Scott Alexander | MIL | 1.2 | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | Split Adv? |
HR PF |
Opp SP |
HR Prob% |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | NYY | No | 103 | Sonny Gray | 26.0% | +285 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | STL | No | 91 | Josiah Gray | 24.8% | +305 |
| Nolan Arenado | STL | No | 91 | Josiah Gray | 23.6% | +325 |
| Kyle Garlick | MIN | Yes | 103 | Nestor Cortes | 23.4% | +330 |
| Joc Pederson | SF | Yes | 101 | Freddy Peralta | 23.4% | +330 |
| Rowdy Tellez | MIL | Yes | 101 | Sean Hjelle | 22.4% | +345 |
| Keston Hiura | MIL | Yes | 103 | Scott Alexander | 21.8% | +360 |
| Carlos Correa | MIN | Yes | 103 | Nestor Cortes | 21.2% | +370 |
| Willy Adames | MIL | Yes | 103 | Scott Alexander | 20.7% | +385 |
| Joc Pederson | SF | Yes | 101 | Corbin Burnes | 20.3% | +395 |
| Franmil Reyes | CHC | No | 103 | Luis Cessa | 20.2% | +395 |
| Eloy Jimenez | CHW | Yes | 94 | JP Sears | 19.9% | +405 |
| Wilmer Flores | SF | No | 103 | Freddy Peralta | 19.7% | +410 |
| Wilmer Flores | SF | No | 103 | Corbin Burnes | 19.7% | +410 |
| Keston Hiura | MIL | No | 103 | Sean Hjelle | 19.7% | +410 |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | Yes | 106 | Sandy Alcantara | 19.3% | +420 |
| Hunter Renfroe | MIL | Yes | 103 | Scott Alexander | 18.9% | +430 |
| Jose Miranda | MIN | Yes | 103 | Nestor Cortes | 18.2% | +450 |
| Rhys Hoskins | PHI | No | 110 | Sandy Alcantara | 18.2% | +450 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | NYY | No | 103 | Sonny Gray | 17.9% | +460 |
| Albert Pujols | STL | No | 91 | Josiah Gray | 17.9% | +460 |
| Sean Murphy | OAK | No | 94 | Dylan Cease | 17.8% | +460 |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | Yes | 106 | Sandy Alcantara | 17.4% | +475 |
| P.J. Higgins | CHC | No | 103 | Luis Cessa | 17.3% | +480 |
| Andrew Vaughn | CHW | Yes | 94 | JP Sears | 17.0% | +490 |
| Gleyber Torres | NYY | No | 103 | Sonny Gray | 16.7% | +500 |
| Ramon Laureano | OAK | No | 94 | Dylan Cease | 16.7% | +500 |
| Jake Fraley | CIN | Yes | 96 | Adrian Sampson | 16.7% | +500 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr | SF | Yes | 101 | Freddy Peralta | 16.1% | +520 |
| Rowdy Tellez | MIL | No | 101 | Scott Alexander | 15.6% | +545 |
| Gary Sanchez | MIN | Yes | 103 | Nestor Cortes | 15.5% | +545 |
| Seth Brown | OAK | Yes | 92 | Dylan Cease | 15.5% | +545 |
| Gavin Sheets | CHW | No | 92 | JP Sears | 14.9% | +570 |
| Jonathan India | CIN | No | 103 | Adrian Sampson | 14.7% | +580 |
| Luke Voit | WSH | No | 91 | Adam Wainwright | 14.5% | +590 |
| Shea Langeliers | OAK | No | 94 | Dylan Cease | 14.3% | +600 |
| TJ Friedl | CIN | Yes | 96 | Adrian Sampson | 14.2% | +605 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | SF | Yes | 101 | Corbin Burnes | 14.1% | +610 |
| Hunter Renfroe | MIL | No | 103 | Sean Hjelle | 14.0% | +610 |
| Lane Thomas | WSH | No | 91 | Adam Wainwright | 13.9% | +620 |
| Corey Dickerson | STL | Yes | 97 | Josiah Gray | 13.6% | +635 |
| Tommy Edman | STL | Yes | 97 | Josiah Gray | 13.6% | +635 |
| Victor Caratini | MIL | Yes | 101 | Sean Hjelle | 13.4% | +645 |
| Aristides Aquino | CIN | No | 103 | Adrian Sampson | 13.3% | +650 |
| Joey Meneses | WSH | No | 91 | Adam Wainwright | 13.3% | +655 |
| JJ Bleday | MIA | Yes | 106 | Kyle Gibson | 13.2% | +660 |
| Jose Abreu | CHW | Yes | 94 | JP Sears | 13.1% | +665 |
| Ian Happ | CHC | Yes | 96 | Luis Cessa | 12.8% | +680 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr | SF | Yes | 101 | Corbin Burnes | 12.7% | +690 |
| Thairo Estrada | SF | No | 103 | Freddy Peralta | 12.6% | +690 |
| Seiya Suzuki | CHC | No | 103 | Luis Cessa | 12.6% | +690 |
| Spencer Steer | CIN | No | 103 | Adrian Sampson | 12.6% | +690 |
| Yoan Moncada | CHW | Yes | 94 | JP Sears | 12.4% | +710 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | SF | Yes | 101 | Freddy Peralta | 11.9% | +735 |
| Willy Adames | MIL | No | 103 | Sean Hjelle | 11.9% | +740 |
| Victor Caratini | MIL | Yes | 103 | Scott Alexander | 11.8% | +745 |
| Brandon Marsh | PHI | Yes | 106 | Sandy Alcantara | 11.7% | +755 |
| Christian Yelich | MIL | Yes | 101 | Sean Hjelle | 11.2% | +795 |
| Jose Trevino | NYY | No | 103 | Sonny Gray | 11.2% | +795 |
| Joey Bart | SF | No | 103 | Freddy Peralta | 11.2% | +795 |
| Luis Robert | CHW | Yes | 94 | JP Sears | 10.9% | +815 |
| Tommy La Stella | SF | Yes | 101 | Corbin Burnes | 10.4% | +860 |
| Thairo Estrada | SF | No | 103 | Corbin Burnes | 10.4% | +860 |
| Brian Anderson | MIA | No | 110 | Kyle Gibson | 10.2% | +880 |
| Alec Bohm | PHI | No | 110 | Sandy Alcantara | 10.2% | +880 |
| Zach McKinstry | CHC | Yes | 96 | Luis Cessa | 10.0% | +900 |
| Kolten Wong | MIL | Yes | 101 | Sean Hjelle | 9.7% | +935 |
| Kyle Farmer | CIN | No | 103 | Adrian Sampson | 9.6% | +940 |
| Dermis Garcia | OAK | No | 94 | Dylan Cease | 9.6% | +945 |
| Christian Yelich | MIL | No | 101 | Scott Alexander | 9.5% | +950 |
| Gio Urshela | MIN | Yes | 103 | Nestor Cortes | 9.4% | +965 |
| J.T. Realmuto | PHI | No | 110 | Sandy Alcantara | 9.4% | +965 |
| Jace Peterson | MIL | No | 101 | Scott Alexander | 8.9% | +1025 |
| Brandon Crawford | SF | Yes | 101 | Freddy Peralta | 8.9% | +1025 |
| Brandon Crawford | SF | Yes | 101 | Corbin Burnes | 8.9% | +1025 |
| Jace Peterson | MIL | Yes | 101 | Sean Hjelle | 8.9% | +1025 |
| Elvis Andrus | CHW | Yes | 94 | JP Sears | 8.6% | +1055 |
| Keibert Ruiz | WSH | Yes | 97 | Adam Wainwright | 8.6% | +1070 |
| Brendan Donovan | STL | Yes | 97 | Josiah Gray | 8.6% | +1070 |
| Nelson Velazquez | CHC | No | 103 | Luis Cessa | 8.0% | +1145 |
| Luis Garcia | WSH | No | 91 | Adam Wainwright | 7.9% | +1165 |
| Sandy Leon | MIN | Yes | 103 | Nestor Cortes | 7.7% | +1205 |
| Nick Maton | PHI | Yes | 106 | Sandy Alcantara | 7.6% | +1220 |
| Nick Gordon | MIN | No | 109 | Nestor Cortes | 7.3% | +1265 |
| Tommy La Stella | SF | Yes | 101 | Freddy Peralta | 7.2% | +1280 |
| DJ LeMahieu | NYY | No | 103 | Sonny Gray | 7.2% | +1285 |
| David Bote | CHC | No | 103 | Luis Cessa | 7.2% | +1285 |
| Oswaldo Cabrera | NYY | Yes | 109 | Sonny Gray | 6.9% | +1355 |
| Nelson Cruz | WSH | No | 91 | Adam Wainwright | 6.4% | +1455 |
| Nico Hoerner | CHC | No | 103 | Luis Cessa | 6.4% | +1470 |
| Kolten Wong | MIL | No | 101 | Scott Alexander | 6.1% | +1535 |
| Alfonso Rivas | CHC | Yes | 96 | Luis Cessa | 6.1% | +1540 |
