3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Wednesday 9/7/22
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.
Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.
Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?
Franmil Reyes, OF, Cubs ($2,800)
The Chicago Cubs' implied total is 4.30 runs, which is the fourth-best of the night. But our model is wayyy higher on the Cubs, projecting them to score 5.49 runs.
As a result, each of the top three point-per-dollar bats, according to our algorithm, are Cubbies. Franmil Reyes tops the list.
The Cubs are taking on lefty Mike Minor. The veteran is having a woeful season, struggling to a 4.76 SIERA and 17.4% strikeout rate. He's had a massive issue with homers, permitting 2.13 per nine overall and 2.34 per nine to righties. He's exactly the kind of hurler we want to stack against.
Reyes can take advantage. He's got a 43.1% fly-ball rate this season against southpaws, and he put up a .367 wOBA and 40.5% hard-hit rate in the split a year ago.
We project Reyes to total 15.4 FanDuel points and rate him as the slate's best point-per-dollar bat.
Brendan Donovan, 2B/SS, Cardinals ($2,400)
Brendan Donovan has been hitting second against righties. That alone makes him a viable value target.
But this is a really great spot for him and the St. Louis Cardinals' offense. They're at home against Cory Abbott and are showing a 4.97 implied total, the slate's second-best clip.
Abbott has a 5.36 SIERA and 18.3% strikeout rate over 44 career innings. His strikeout rate is that low despite him spending time as a reliever, a role that usually inflates a pitcher's strikeout rate. Once Abbott is out of the game, which figures to be fairly soon since he hasn't tossed more than 21 pitches in an appearance in nearly a month, the Cards can feast versus a Washington Nationals bullpen that is ninth-worst in reliever xFIP (4.18) over the last 30 days.
Donovan has a .348 wOBA against righties this year and has been really solid in the second half, boasting identical strikeout (11.9%) and walk (11.9%) rates since the break. He's also been a much better hitter at home this season, mashing his way to a .394 wOBA in the split compared to a .301 wOBA on the road.
Amed Rosario, 2B/SS, Guardians ($2,300)
The Cleveland Guardians are a sneaky-good stack against Zack Greinke. While Cleveland's 4.19 implied total doesn't jump off the page, it's the night's fifth-best, and Greinke is running on fumes at this point.
In 108 2/3 frames this season, Greinke owns a 4.68 SIERA and 13.7% strikeout rate. Greinke doesn't hurt himself with walks (4.5% rate), but giving up that many balls in play isn't going to go well over the long haul.
Amed Rosario is expected to be slotted second in the lineup. We project him for 11.1 FanDuel points, which makes him our seventh-best point-per-dollar hitter. Even if you don't want to stack Cleveland, Rosario is a solid one-off play who can help you get to the top bats from the Cards and Astros.
