MLB
MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Friday 9/2/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
BOSDallas
Keuchel
10.05.6249.2%33.3%20.6%11.6%6.0%
CINKyle
Freeland
9.54.8235.2%21.2%11.5%5.7%2.6%
TORJohan
Oviedo
8.04.7734.4%20.5%11.0%5.4%2.4%
STLAdrian
Sampson
8.04.7433.9%20.1%10.8%5.2%2.3%
COLLuis
Cessa
9.54.6832.8%19.3%10.2%4.9%2.2%
HOUReid
Detmers
8.54.5730.9%17.8%9.2%4.4%1.9%
NYMJosiah
Gray
7.54.5330.2%17.3%8.9%4.2%1.8%
BALJP
Sears
8.04.4428.7%16.1%8.2%3.8%1.6%
TEXNick
Pivetta
10.04.3827.7%15.4%7.7%3.5%1.4%
MILZach
Davies
8.54.3226.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
DETDaniel
Lynch
8.54.2525.5%13.8%6.7%3.0%1.2%
KCDrew
Hutchison
8.54.2525.5%13.8%6.7%3.0%1.2%
MINDavis
Martin
8.04.2024.7%13.3%6.4%2.8%1.1%
ARIEric
Lauer
8.54.1824.4%13.0%6.3%2.7%1.1%
LADYu
Darvish
7.54.1323.6%12.5%5.9%2.5%1.0%
SEAZach
Plesac
7.53.9921.3%11.0%5.1%2.1%0.8%
LAALance
McCullers
8.53.9320.4%10.4%4.7%1.9%0.7%
ATLSandy
Alcantara
7.03.9220.2%10.3%4.7%1.9%0.7%
TBDomingo
German
7.53.8719.5%9.8%4.4%1.8%0.7%
CHWSonny
Gray
8.03.8018.4%9.1%4.0%1.6%0.6%
PHIAlex
Cobb
7.53.7517.7%8.6%3.8%1.5%0.5%
SFKyle
Gibson
7.53.7517.7%8.6%3.8%1.5%0.5%
NYYJeffrey
Springs
7.53.6316.0%7.6%3.2%1.2%0.4%
OAKDean
Kremer
8.03.5615.0%7.0%2.9%1.1%0.4%
CLELuis
Castillo
7.53.5114.4%6.6%2.7%1.0%0.3%
SDDustin
May
7.53.3712.6%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
CHCJordan
Montgomery
8.03.2611.2%4.8%1.9%0.6%0.2%
PITAlek
Manoah
8.03.2310.9%4.6%1.8%0.6%0.2%
MIACharlie
Morton
7.03.089.2%3.8%1.4%0.4%0.1%
WSHDavid
Peterson
7.52.978.1%3.2%1.1%0.4%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Charlie
Morton
MIA7.694.6%87.8%77.4%64.1%49.6%35.7%24.0%
Luis
Castillo
CLE6.589.0%78.0%63.5%47.8%33.2%21.2%12.5%
Alek
Manoah
PIT6.588.9%77.7%63.2%47.5%32.9%21.0%12.3%
Yu
Darvish
LAD6.488.3%76.8%62.1%46.2%31.7%20.0%11.7%
David
Peterson
WSH6.487.9%76.1%61.2%45.3%30.8%19.3%11.2%
Sandy
Alcantara
ATL6.185.7%72.7%56.9%40.8%26.9%16.2%9.0%
Dustin
May
SD5.984.0%70.1%53.8%37.8%24.2%14.3%7.7%
Nick
Pivetta
TEX5.882.9%68.6%52.0%36.0%22.8%13.2%7.0%
Alex
Cobb
PHI5.782.2%67.6%50.8%34.9%21.8%12.5%6.6%
Eric
Lauer
ARI5.782.2%67.6%50.8%34.9%21.8%12.5%6.6%
Jeffrey
Springs
NYY5.781.8%67.0%50.2%34.2%21.3%12.2%6.4%
Lance
McCullers
LAA5.478.3%62.2%44.9%29.4%17.5%9.5%4.7%
Jordan
Montgomery
CHC5.275.5%58.5%41.0%26.0%15.0%7.8%3.8%
Sonny
Gray
CHW5.175.0%57.9%40.3%25.4%14.5%7.6%3.6%
Josiah
Gray
NYM5.072.9%55.2%37.7%23.2%12.9%6.6%3.0%
Kyle
Gibson
SF4.870.1%51.8%34.4%20.5%11.0%5.4%2.4%
Reid
Detmers
HOU4.667.4%48.7%31.4%18.2%9.5%4.5%2.0%
Domingo
German
TB4.666.8%47.9%30.7%17.7%9.2%4.3%1.9%
Johan
Oviedo
TOR4.565.9%47.0%29.9%17.0%8.7%4.1%1.7%
Zach
Plesac
SEA4.464.7%45.6%28.7%16.1%8.2%3.8%1.6%
Daniel
Lynch
DET4.362.3%43.0%26.3%14.4%7.1%3.2%1.3%
Kyle
Freeland
CIN4.158.8%39.3%23.2%12.2%5.8%2.5%1.0%
Dean
Kremer
OAK4.157.6%38.1%22.3%11.6%5.4%2.3%0.9%
Davis
Martin
MIN4.157.6%38.1%22.3%11.6%5.4%2.3%0.9%
Zach
Davies
MIL3.852.7%33.2%18.4%9.1%4.0%1.6%0.6%
Drew
Hutchison
KC3.649.1%29.9%16.0%7.6%3.2%1.2%0.4%
Adrian
Sampson
STL3.648.3%29.2%15.5%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%
JP
Sears
BAL3.546.3%27.5%14.2%6.5%2.7%1.0%0.3%
Luis
Cessa
COL3.240.0%22.1%10.7%4.5%1.7%0.6%0.2%
Dallas
Keuchel
BOS3.239.5%21.8%10.4%4.4%1.7%0.6%0.2%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes111Davis
Martin
25.8%+285
Aaron
Judge
NYYYes94Jeffrey
Springs
25.2%+295
Corey
Seager
TEXYes93Nick
Pivetta
25.1%+300
Jose
Altuve
HOUYes103Reid
Detmers
24.4%+310
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo99Zach
Plesac
24.1%+315
Manny
Machado
SDNo107Dustin
May
23.9%+320
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo98Josiah
Gray
23.9%+320
Juan
Soto
SDYes102Dustin
May
23.5%+325
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo91Adrian
Sampson
23.2%+330
Shea
Langeliers
OAKNo112Dean
Kremer
23.1%+330
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo92Johan
Oviedo
22.5%+345
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes95Alek
Manoah
22.4%+345
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo91Adrian
Sampson
22.3%+350
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo99Nick
Pivetta
22.2%+350
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo112Dean
Kremer
21.5%+365
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUNo108Reid
Detmers
21.1%+375
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes103Zach
Plesac
21.1%+375
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes99Zach
Davies
21.1%+375
Christian
Walker
ARIYes93Eric
Lauer
20.8%+380
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo99Zach
Plesac
20.7%+385
Mitch
Haniger
SEANo99Zach
Plesac
20.7%+385
Mookie
Betts
LADNo107Yu
Darvish
20.2%+395
Trea
Turner
LADNo107Yu
Darvish
20.2%+395
Brandon
Drury
SDNo107Dustin
May
20.2%+395
Joc
Pederson
SFYes87Kyle
Gibson
20.1%+395
Stuart
Fairchild
CINYes111Kyle
Freeland
19.9%+400
Willy
Adames
MILNo93Zach
Davies
19.8%+405
Matt
Chapman
TORNo92Johan
Oviedo
19.6%+410
Anthony
Santander
BALYes112JP
Sears
19.4%+415
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes111Sonny
Gray
19.3%+420
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo92Johan
Oviedo
19.1%+425
Danny
Jansen
TORNo92Johan
Oviedo
19.1%+425
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo99Drew
Hutchison
19.1%+425
C.J.
Cron
COLNo111Luis
Cessa
19.0%+425
Trey
Mancini
HOUYes103Reid
Detmers
18.9%+430
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes95Josiah
Gray
18.8%+430
Dan
Vogelbach
NYMYes95Josiah
Gray
18.8%+430
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALYes112JP
Sears
18.7%+435
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYYes94Jeffrey
Springs
18.7%+435
Seth
Brown
OAKYes110Dean
Kremer
18.5%+440
Albert
Pujols
STLNo91Adrian
Sampson
18.4%+445
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes108Lance
McCullers
18.3%+445
Tyler
Naquin
NYMYes95Josiah
Gray
18.3%+445
William
Contreras
ATLNo97Sandy
Alcantara
18.2%+450
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo93Zach
Davies
18.2%+450
Nick
Pratto
KCYes94Drew
Hutchison
18.1%+450
Ramon
Urias
BALYes112JP
Sears
18.1%+455
Bo
Bichette
TORNo92Johan
Oviedo
18.0%+455
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo99Nick
Pivetta
18.0%+455
Kolten
Wong
MILYes99Zach
Davies
17.7%+465
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSYes99Dallas
Keuchel
17.7%+465
George
Springer
TORNo92Johan
Oviedo
17.5%+470
Mark
Canha
NYMNo98Josiah
Gray
17.2%+480
Matt
Olson
ATLYes100Sandy
Alcantara
17.2%+480
LaMonte
Wade
Jr
SFYes87Kyle
Gibson
17.1%+485
Jose
Miranda
MINNo106Davis
Martin
17.1%+485
Tommy
Pham
BOSYes99Dallas
Keuchel
17.0%+485
Brendan
Rodgers
COLNo111Luis
Cessa
17.0%+485
Alex
Bregman
HOUYes103Reid
Detmers
16.9%+490
Lane
Thomas
WSHYes98David
Peterson
16.9%+490
Salvador
Perez
KCNo99Drew
Hutchison
16.8%+495
Bryce
Harper
PHIYes87Alex
Cobb
16.5%+505
Kyle
Tucker
HOUNo108Reid
Detmers
16.4%+510
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes103Luis
Castillo
16.3%+510
Chas
McCormick
HOUYes103Reid
Detmers
16.2%+515
Jeremy
Pena
HOUYes103Reid
Detmers
16.2%+515
Joey
Gallo
LADYes102Yu
Darvish
16.2%+515
Stone
Garrett
ARIYes93Eric
Lauer
16.2%+515
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes113Luis
Cessa
16.2%+520
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes87Alex
Cobb
16.0%+525
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYNo92Jeffrey
Springs
15.9%+525
Austin
Riley
ATLNo97Sandy
Alcantara
15.9%+530
Gio
Urshela
MINNo106Davis
Martin
15.7%+535
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo106Sonny
Gray
15.7%+535
Eric
Haase
DETYes99Daniel
Lynch
15.7%+535
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes103Zach
Plesac
15.7%+540
Franmil
Reyes
CHCYes91Jordan
Montgomery
15.3%+555
Aristides
Aquino
CINYes111Kyle
Freeland
15.0%+565
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Luis
Castillo
15.0%+565
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo90Alex
Cobb
15.0%+570
Emmanuel
Rivera
ARIYes93Eric
Lauer
14.9%+570
Ian
Happ
CHCYes91Jordan
Montgomery
14.7%+580
Tyler
O'Neill
STLNo91Adrian
Sampson
14.5%+590
Wil
Myers
SDNo107Dustin
May
14.5%+590
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes103Zach
Plesac
14.3%+600
Chad
Pinder
OAKNo112Dean
Kremer
14.3%+600
Jordan
Luplow
ARIYes93Eric
Lauer
14.3%+600
Isaac
Paredes
TBNo94Domingo
German
14.3%+600
Rafael
Devers
BOSNo93Dallas
Keuchel
14.0%+615
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes113Luis
Cessa
13.9%+620
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes93Nick
Pivetta
13.8%+625
Max
Kepler
MINYes111Davis
Martin
13.7%+630
Ty
France
SEANo99Zach
Plesac
13.6%+635
Jack
Suwinski
PITYes95Alek
Manoah
13.4%+650
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes100Sandy
Alcantara
13.3%+655
Christian
Yelich
MILYes99Zach
Davies
13.2%+660
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo90Kyle
Gibson
13.1%+660
Josh
Donaldson
NYYYes94Jeffrey
Springs
13.1%+665
Will
Smith
LADNo107Yu
Darvish
13.0%+665
Christian
Bethancourt
TBNo94Domingo
German
13.0%+670
Carson
Kelly
ARIYes93Eric
Lauer
12.9%+675
Franchy
Cordero
BOSNo93Dallas
Keuchel
12.9%+675
Trevor
Story
BOSYes99Dallas
Keuchel
12.9%+675
Luis
Urias
MILNo93Zach
Davies
12.9%+675
Josh
Bell
SDYes102Dustin
May
12.8%+685
Michael
Chavis
PITNo92Alek
Manoah
12.8%+685
Austin
Hays
BALYes112JP
Sears
12.7%+685
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes112JP
Sears
12.7%+685
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes95Alek
Manoah
12.7%+685
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo97Charlie
Morton
12.7%+690
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes93Nick
Pivetta
12.5%+700
David
Peralta
TBYes92Domingo
German
12.4%+710
Justin
Turner
LADNo107Yu
Darvish
12.3%+715
Luis
Robert
CHWNo106Sonny
Gray
12.2%+720
Luis
Arraez
MINYes111Davis
Martin
12.2%+725
Max
Muncy
LADYes102Yu
Darvish
12.0%+730
Mike
Trout
LAANo103Lance
McCullers
11.9%+740
JJ
Bleday
MIAYes100Charlie
Morton
11.8%+745
Gleyber
Torres
NYYYes94Jeffrey
Springs
11.6%+760
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORNo92Johan
Oviedo
11.5%+775
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo92Johan
Oviedo
11.5%+775
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Luis
Castillo
11.4%+780
Luke
Voit
WSHYes98David
Peterson
11.3%+785
Joey
Meneses
WSHYes98David
Peterson
11.3%+785
Max
Stassi
LAANo103Lance
McCullers
11.2%+795
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo111Luis
Cessa
11.1%+800
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo94Domingo
German
11.0%+810
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDNo107Dustin
May
10.8%+830
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo106Sonny
Gray
10.7%+835
Eloy
Jimenez
CHWNo106Sonny
Gray
10.7%+835
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCYes91Jordan
Montgomery
10.6%+840
Rodolfo
Castro
PITYes95Alek
Manoah
10.6%+840
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo90Alex
Cobb
10.6%+845
Luis
Garcia
WSHYes98David
Peterson
10.6%+845
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes102Yu
Darvish
10.5%+850
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes102Dustin
May
10.5%+850
Nick
Gordon
MINYes111Davis
Martin
10.5%+850
Jo
Adell
LAANo103Lance
McCullers
10.4%+860
Rougned
Odor
BALNo110JP
Sears
10.3%+870
Elias
Diaz
COLNo111Luis
Cessa
10.3%+870
Michael
Taylor
KCNo99Drew
Hutchison
10.0%+895
Jonathan
India
CINYes111Kyle
Freeland
10.0%+895
Paul
DeJong
STLNo91Adrian
Sampson
10.0%+900
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo90Alex
Cobb
9.9%+910
Elvis
Andrus
CHWNo106Sonny
Gray
9.9%+910
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo97Sandy
Alcantara
9.9%+915
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes99Daniel
Lynch
9.9%+915
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes102Yu
Darvish
9.7%+925
Yandy
Diaz
TBNo94Domingo
German
9.6%+945
Riley
Greene
DETNo94Daniel
Lynch
9.6%+945
Martin
Maldonado
HOUYes103Reid
Detmers
9.4%+965
Lars
Nootbaar
STLYes97Adrian
Sampson
9.3%+975
Ezequiel
Duran
TEXNo99Nick
Pivetta
9.3%+975
Jorge
Mateo
BALYes112JP
Sears
9.2%+985
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes95Josiah
Gray
9.1%+995
Kyle
Farmer
CINYes111Kyle
Freeland
9.1%+995
Carlos
Correa
MINNo106Davis
Martin
9.1%+1000
Javier
Baez
DETYes99Daniel
Lynch
9.1%+1005
Meibrys
Viloria
TEXYes93Nick
Pivetta
9.0%+1015
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes102Dustin
May
8.9%+1020
Garrett
Mitchell
MILYes99Zach
Davies
8.7%+1050
Jose
Trevino
NYYYes94Jeffrey
Springs
8.6%+1055
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes93Eric
Lauer
8.6%+1070
Tommy
Edman
STLYes97Adrian
Sampson
8.6%+1070
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo99Drew
Hutchison
8.5%+1070
P.J.
Higgins
CHCYes91Jordan
Montgomery
8.4%+1090
Nelson
Velazquez
CHCYes91Jordan
Montgomery
8.4%+1090
Ben
Gamel
PITYes95Alek
Manoah
8.4%+1090
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo97Sandy
Alcantara
8.4%+1095
Brian
Anderson
MIANo97Charlie
Morton
8.4%+1095
Spencer
Torkelson
DETYes99Daniel
Lynch
8.2%+1115
Brad
Miller
TEXYes93Nick
Pivetta
8.2%+1115
Donovan
Solano
CINYes111Kyle
Freeland
8.2%+1120
Omar
Narvaez
MILYes99Zach
Davies
7.9%+1165
Sandy
Leon
MINYes111Davis
Martin
7.9%+1165
Alec
Bohm
PHINo90Alex
Cobb
7.8%+1180
Myles
Straw
CLENo99Luis
Castillo
7.7%+1190
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENo99Luis
Castillo
7.7%+1190
Brandon
Crawford
SFYes87Kyle
Gibson
7.7%+1190
Brandon
Marsh
PHIYes87Alex
Cobb
7.7%+1190
Andrew
Velazquez
LAAYes108Lance
McCullers
7.7%+1200
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes108Lance
McCullers
7.7%+1200
Kerry
Carpenter
DETNo94Daniel
Lynch
7.7%+1200
Brett
Baty
NYMYes95Josiah
Gray
7.6%+1210
Alex
Verdugo
BOSNo93Dallas
Keuchel
7.6%+1215
J.D.
Martinez
BOSYes99Dallas
Keuchel
7.4%+1255
Willi
Castro
DETYes99Daniel
Lynch
7.4%+1255
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo93Zach
Davies
7.3%+1265
Gavin
Lux
LADYes102Yu
Darvish
7.3%+1270
Austin
Romine
CINYes111Kyle
Freeland
7.3%+1275
Santiago
Espinal
TORNo92Johan
Oviedo
7.2%+1280
Amed
Rosario
CLENo99Luis
Castillo
7.0%+1340
Charles
Leblanc
MIANo97Charlie
Morton
6.8%+1365
Mike
Ford
LAAYes108Lance
McCullers
6.8%+1370
TJ
Friedl
CINNo113Kyle
Freeland
6.8%+1370
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes93Nick
Pivetta
6.7%+1390
Josh
Rojas
ARINo99Eric
Lauer
6.7%+1390

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